55 shares sold, obv gonna play no matter what, and tbh I kinda prefer to sell around this many anyway. I get into town on Saturday


20 shares - pquest (PAID)
10 shares - private investor (check)
3 - AP (cash in vegas)
3 - CalBandGreat (PAID)
2 - Scansion (cash in Vegas)
2 - Spraggs (PAID)
2 - pachxx (PAID)
2 - private (BoA, waiting)
2 - Tourbound68 (PAID)
2 - Tilted EV (bank xfer, pending)
2 - Private Investor (PAID)
2 - JacKnight (cash in vegas)

lol @ selling 25% at 1.61 in a $10k 6 max wsop and 35% at 1.59 for the ventian 10K... but whatever its selling, gl.

Sale closed. Starting today, follow at @galenhall and PM me for my # to come meet up with me and pay me if you haven't yet.

rail thread

just noticed this post now and wouldnt have wanted to ruin galens action, but now that its started/sold can come in and say thats the worst package ive ever seen and will ever see. anyone who bought is a whale.

galen is too smart for all of you. but good luck to him anyway

Gonna make one change to the sched, replace the 6max lhe with OE tonight, and reduce the markup to zero.

I think I probably have around equal relative skill at OE vs lhe, and am reducing mu to zero and it's around 2% of the net equity of the package.

If anyone doesn't want the change just message me and I'll refund you that share instead. Since the tournament starts in an hour, I'll give you guys a full day to message me, and even if I bust I'll honor refunds if you feel like you legit would have asked for one but didn't see it in time.

Could make for a good/hilarious MBA class presentation.

Just win a bracelet so I can laugh in everyone's face..

it doesnt matter if he wins a bracelet...

I understand that point, but it will make me feel better

I know I payed a really big premium for my piece... But I also know that Galen is by far the best player who posted a package, with the great ability to close down the stretch. So if he does get deep in one of these events the likely hood for a big score is far better than anyone else in here (IMO). I will take my chances..

i wont go through the whole package, but ill say this: galen does not have a 61% roi in the 10k 6max. would be shocked if it was above 30% to be honest. i know he assumes his ROI is higher than 61% and that he didnt need to sell so selling at a high markup was his goal, but selling at a markup higher than your ROI is unethical.

that part of the package being so incredibly -EV makes it very likely that the entire package is -EV when the other markups are also very high so its not like theres super +EV spots in other places to make up for it.

i think really highly of galens game. love how he plays. i think hes extremely intelligent and has great aspects about him that are important for live poker. but there are so many great players in the tournament how can his ROI be that high?

Let me run some rough estimated numbers. say the tourney gets 400 people, and after rake the prizepool will be 384 buyins. there are probably 50 fish with an average ROI of -40% (they win 30 buyins back), so thats 354 buyins left. then there are 250 ok-good tourney regs with a -10% ROI on average (they win 225 buyins back), leaving 129 buyins for the top 100 tourney players. meaning the average ROI for the top 100 players is 29%. id imagine the top 15 guys (ivey, ike, seidel, mercier, marchese etc) maybe have 40%+ ROIs capping out around the 75% area and the top 5 maybe 75% and the other 85 are all in the 10-40 range.

now im gonna list out ~75-80 great players (no offense if i didnt list someone, i just wrote out a bunch of names i saw on a list and off the top of my head) who im 95%+ certain will be playing this tournament given how close it is to the main event. tell me where you think galen ranks amongst them in terms of ROI. keep in mind galen has played less than 100 live tournaments, was basically only a pro for 2 years, has a 24% ROI in online tournaments and has no online high stakes cash experience.

ivey, mercier, seidel, katchalov, sorel, moorman, marchese, haxton, seiver, bonomo, timex, glantz, schulman, elky, trickett, raptor, menlo, gboro, ben86, sauce1234, djk, ben lamb, yevgheniy, genius28, galfond, jungleman, stinger, cole south, olivier busquet, andrew robl, lee markholt, chris klodnicki, daniel alaei, will reynolds, will molson, aejones, tjbentham, nanonoko, 0human0, isildur, terken, jeans89, doc sands, jason koon, dan smith, steve odwyer, shawn buchanan, jon duhamel, vanessa selbst, sam stein, luckychewy, bryn kenney, floes, amak316, mig.com, charder, stevie444, apestyles, ender555, taypaur, elio fox, bakes, jake cody, benyamine, joe tehan, antonius, shaun deeb, btherecom, john monnette, tim0thee, brianm15, pokerjamers, joe tehan, brian rast, basebaldy, chris moore, scott clements, matt waxman, jjprodigy.

giving him every benefit of the doubt id still have him ranked at best around #40 or in a group similar to those guys #25-#60. also consider there are probably 20+ very good cash game players both live and online that will show up that im not thinking of that have an edge in this tournament. guys like king10ofclubs or shane rose. theres simply no way its possible for him to have a 61% ROI in this tournament.

as a good exercise, after the tournament takes place, remove who you think are the top 15 guys i listed and total up the cashes of the other 55 and see if that total is more than 900k. on average i bet it wont be.


im actually writing a book on backing. taking longer than i expected, and ill cover a lot of stuff like this. should be done with it before wcoop.

nice analysis ^^

As I said before, I'd love to have this discussion and I think it's super interesting, butmid prefer not to have it in my selling thread. That said, I am pretty much done selling, and am halfway through my package, so whatever.

My responses:

1. I think that you are drastically overestimating the ROIs of mediocre grinders in this event. It's deep and shorthanded and these un creative guys that take robotic lines and win decent amounts online just get cut apart, and that's where all the value comes from. -10% is pretty generous.

2. I think you might be underestimating my skill, but then again it's at least equally likely that the reverse is true. Still, I have a lot of reasons to think that I am still somewhat underrated, and since I don't really need to sell action except to avoid tax free rolls, I don't think it's unreasonable for me to make a package with prices that I'm indifferent towards selling or keeping and whatever people want to do they are free to do.


I have a lot more thoughts and mathy stuff, but I'm in the OE right now and need to concentrate.

At the very least I am logically consistent with my views about edge... I've paid over 2:1 for players on multiple occasions in certain tournaments, and IMO most of what I pay for players that I consider my peers is similar to what I sell for.

Wow, this is the most predatory package I've ever seen. Defending it at this point is just lunacy, daut is 100% right that this is unethical whether you realize it tomorrow or 2 years.

How can you say it's unethical when all details are available to the people buying?

It's my opinion (which might be wrong) just like its GBs opinion he has. 62%+ roi in the 10k 6m (which is definitely wrong)

Even if his projections are/are not way off, I don't think "unethical" could be considered the right word, mainly for the reason Rupert gave. "Ambitious" maybe but not "unethical" or even "misleading" since anyone could've did what Daut did (not that anyone ever does those things, but it's not like Galen withheld any essential information). I really don't see how this is anything more than an exercise in basic supply/demand.

its unethical to KNOWINGLY sell for a higher markup than your ROI. offering a bad/-EV deal to others because they are too naive to realize it or because they will buy based on your reputation is pretty messed up.

Im not accusing galen of being unethical though. Its clear he thought his roi was higher than 61% though so it wasnt a case of him doing something unethical. just delusional

The fact of the matter is that none of us truly know what anyone's real roi is.. We can guesstimate, but is there really a big enough sample for anyone when it comes to tournaments?

Dauts example of top tourney players is pretty subjective. Yea they are all good, but how can you truly compare them in the long run?

Galen disclosed all pertinent information... Even that he will quit the package after a big score..

But like someone said earlier: supply and demand. When supply is scarce (top pros' in marketplace) demand goes up, which drives price up.. Not really MBA level economics, but for those who don't know the law, that's pretty much it.

well how about i offer some more supply

I'd like to sell more of galen at 1.6-1 in the 10k venetian and 10k 6 max

I'll pick five players and buy 5% of each of them at 1.6, pick someone to escrow.

I assume first will be around a million, so if you escrow 75k that should cover it.

Calling it unethical is stupid. People have the choice whether or not to buy the action, lol. They can just say no. When it's either buy the 10k 6m VDS at 1.6-1 or don't buy it...that just simply an option the marketplace 2p2 members have. I don't see how it can possibly be called unethical. The buyer can determine whether or not the investment is +EV or not for themselves.

One thing is for sure though, Galen needs a "I have a 60%+ ROI in this tourny" shirt for the 10k V and 10k 6m.

I'm failing to see how this has any relation to my offer, there may very well be some well established pros who may be profitable or breakeven at 1.6, i think its impossible you are one of them and I would like to book you alone at 1.6 (you are selling at 1.61 so immediate value here)

there are plenty of horrible deals in this MP being sold...to call it unethical of the person selling it is a joke...if there are buyers that are willing then so be it...business is business and you will obv. try to maximize your own value first

Daut is questioning my base assumptions about markups for good players, which is an interesting debate and a reasonable conversation.

You, apparently are contending that my prices are too high because you think I am much worse than I think I am. While you are entitled to hold that opinion, it's wildly inappropriate to post in someone's MP thread.