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Old 05-17-2018, 06:40 PM   #26
gus1112
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Re: Allen Kessler WSOP 2018 package

Hi Alan, interested in investing. I know you have massive sample of live tourneys can you share ROI so I can decide whether MU is worth it?

Thanks!
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Old 05-25-2018, 03:21 AM   #27
doublejoker
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Re: Allen Kessler WSOP 2018 package

Not falling for trolls
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Old 05-25-2018, 03:33 AM   #28
SSG1989
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Re: Allen Kessler WSOP 2018 package

will you lower the mu if don't sellout?
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Old 05-25-2018, 05:33 PM   #29
SageDonkey
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Re: Allen Kessler WSOP 2018 package

Quote:
Originally Posted by HLOchi View Post
You ARE down millions, it’s a mathematical certainty. Where did the millions come from? Trust fund, inheritance, investing, ect—nobody knows really. But if you want to parade around live events like your some crusher, you’re only fooling yourself.
I don't know Allen Kessler, never met him, but I did do some analysis and an estimate of his lifetime Hendon Mob listed ROI on another thread somewhere, and it came out as ~+20%. I am confident that this figure has a margin of no greater than +/-7.5% either way as I derived it from a large sample of results and the figure is based on some sound mathematical logic using an estimated ITM%.

The consensus is that he plays on the tight side. This is actually generally good for limit game MTTs and is also a sound strategy for PLO MTTs where ICM is a bigger factor earlier in tournaments than it is in NLHE. Aggresive PLO MTT play done well is also good, but so is TAG if you are good at TAG.

Probably playing too tight in NLHE is a factor in him not having many monster cashes in NLHE MTTs but he has the scope to change his aggression rate in NLHE if he wants to, and in the meantime he cashes a lot in all variants so IMO you are getting an investment with a fairly limited downside at 1.2 but a decent upside.

I would invest but it is too much hassle for me regarding tax forms as I am UK based.

Gl Sir in the series.
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Old 05-26-2018, 11:28 AM   #30
doublejoker
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Re: Allen Kessler WSOP 2018 package

Quote:
Originally Posted by SSG1989 View Post
will you lower the mu if don't sellout?
No. I pretty much sold out pkg 1 immediately. The other pkgs i will sell as needed or just play on my own.
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Old 05-26-2018, 11:29 AM   #31
doublejoker
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Re: Allen Kessler WSOP 2018 package

Quote:
Originally Posted by SageDonkey View Post
I don't know Allen Kessler, never met him, but I did do some analysis and an estimate of his lifetime Hendon Mob listed ROI on another thread somewhere, and it came out as ~+20%. I am confident that this figure has a margin of no greater than +/-7.5% either way as I derived it from a large sample of results and the figure is based on some sound mathematical logic using an estimated ITM%.

The consensus is that he plays on the tight side. This is actually generally good for limit game MTTs and is also a sound strategy for PLO MTTs where ICM is a bigger factor earlier in tournaments than it is in NLHE. Aggresive PLO MTT play done well is also good, but so is TAG if you are good at TAG.

Probably playing too tight in NLHE is a factor in him not having many monster cashes in NLHE MTTs but he has the scope to change his aggression rate in NLHE if he wants to, and in the meantime he cashes a lot in all variants so IMO you are getting an investment with a fairly limited downside at 1.2 but a decent upside.

I would invest but it is too much hassle for me regarding tax forms as I am UK based.

Gl Sir in the series.
Thanks.
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