Out after 204 hands in this $2500 freezeout. About 1.2 levels away from end of late reg. Probably a median outcome for most (assuming about half the field was left at that point?).
Had it up to 3x a starting stack (see Hand #30, Hand #77, Hand #125) then lost the next 10/15 VPIPs, down to 15bb.
Double up. Then very next hand lose with AA vs AK and A6, all-in pre (72bb pot; AK flops a straight).
Played neither my best nor worst event. I guess there's some satisfaction knowing that I was 86% of the way to achieving a well above median outcome (72bb after 200 hands; 1 level of late reg to go) despite playing maybe my C/C+ game.
And if that's enough to get me 86% of the way to a well above-median outcome (72bb after 200 hands; 1 levelto go of late reg) then I'm satisfied. I feel I dont need to play anywhere close to my best to do better than average in a high-stakes event with pretty stiff competition
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Hand #6
Dead BB
CO (350bb) Open3x
SB (Me) (350bb) Jh6h Call
Flop (8bb): 2s2cKh
x-x
Turn (8bb) 2s2cKh9h
x- Bet 4bb- I x raise to 12bb- call
River (32bb) 2s2cKh9h4c
x- Bet 8bb - I fold
Computations:
- Not inclined to barrel whiffed hearts; I'd have straight draws unblocking hearts and some Ax if I wanted to try to get him off a 9 or a King (mixing sizings on the river as I'd have Kx and 2x+ I'd both want to value)
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Hand #17
BTN-3 (Me) (330bb) 6d6s Open2x
BTN (350bb) 3b3x
I call
Flop: (15bb) 3d4h5h
x-bet 8bb-raise 3x-fold
Computations:
- xr this combo almost always; pretty sure my xr frequency is justifiable highly exploitative
- expect there to be multiple sources of EV here, given we're damn strong--equity denial, fat value, all merged into one.
- think we're higher EV than JJ even
- also expect overfolds from Ax
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Hand #30
BTN-2 (165bb) Open2x
BTN (Me) (175bb) 5c3c 3b3x
V calls
Flop (15bb): 2h4s7d
x-Bet 7.5bb-Raise 3.2x-call
Turn (57bb): 2h4s7d6d
Bet 50bb - Raise 2x - All-in for 1.3x more
I win vs 77
Assumptions:
- ATo, KJo, all KXs, all suited 2-gappers, all 8Xs at least are, at a minimum, the bounds of his defense vs 3b; could possible be wider
- Think people start really overfolding vs the small 3b sizings when opening from HJ and later
- Xr sizing followed barrel sizing smelled like a set with exploitably few overpairs and air
Computations:
- Given assumptions about pre, this is a clear exploitative 100% 3b as a default, using the small sizing (no history yet); doubt it's exploitable to 3b at low frequency
- We have one of the highest EV combos vs his xr, probably higher than at least JJ
- Turn my thinking is there's a very small chance he'd slow down on rivers, but a 0% chance he can find a fold vs the cheeky minraise
- He is never ahead vs my turn line, he only has boat outs 100% of the time. I don't think 77 are even profitable to continue.
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Hand #42
BTN-4 (80bb) Open2.7x
BTN-3 (Me) (225bb) JJ call
BB (100bb) c
Flop (10bb) 897r
x-x-x
Turn (10bb) 897rJr
x- I bet 2bb- BB calls-fold
River: (14bb) 897rJr4
x- I bet 7bb- xr 7x-I fold
Assumptions:
- BTN-4 opener gonna defend well vs 3bs after Open2.7x
- River the sizing only really makes sense of QT or air (would almost surely have to be 7x, 8x, or 9x turned into a bluff)
- I'd certainly have Tx of my own here; QT too
Computations:
- JJ a mix pre, small frequency 3b; not keen to exploit here
- Flop certainly BTN-4 can have overpairs still; both can have trapped set; mixing flop bet or x seems best
- River does not feel like a checkback--we'd have 66, 55, AK and AQ that would barrel bluff and even if my air range isn't too wide I think people will miscompute river x-c strats and get too sticky with 2pr, perhaps even a jack
- Don't think we need to ever defend JJ vs river xr for huge sizing
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Hand #54
BTN (65bb) Open2.3x
Me (210bb) 96o 3b3.5x
BTN folds
Assumptions:
Massive overfolds from BTN based on a lot of hard data
- Think at the very least he'll exploitably fail to defend A9o, JTo-KTo, 7Xs, KXs
Computations
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Hand #77
BTN-6 (32bb) Open2x
BTN-4 (120bb) (Me) KcJc call
BB (70bb) call
Flop (8bb): 3s6c8c
x- Opener cbets 4bb- I call - BB folds
Turn (16bb): 3s6c8c9d
Barrel 12bb - I call
River (40bb) 3s6c8c9dKh
Triple 14bb (all-in) - I call
I win vs TT
Assumptions:
- Pre a mix 50/50
- I think I'm always getting tripled into once he uses that turn sizing
Computations:
- Thinking I'm effectively getting 3.5:1 on turn--always getting his stack when I improve--think the hand basically plays itself; simple spot really, in my opinion
- not even confident that his stacking off with TT on, say, the brick 2h river is correct vs most players; we'd see JJ, some QQ, certainly 66,88,99 (people will flat pre with 33, too--though I would not) and he'd need BTN-4 to float whiffed club draws for bluffs, which people may just give up
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After a number of fairly uninteresting hands...
Hand #123
BTN (27bb) Open2.1x
Me (100bb) Th8x call
Flop (6bb): 6c6c2h
x - Bet 2bb - I raise to 5bb - BTN folds
Computations
- Mixing defend and 3b3x pre
- Flop think vs BTN open we get to xr a ton with double-backdoors+2 overs; we likely get overfolds from Ax and that's likely true as we string along barrels
- I'm xr often here and barreling many runouts (hearts, 7s, 9s certainly)
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Hand #125
BTN-4 (50bb) Open2.1x
BTN (Me) (100bb) 22 call
BB (21bb) Squeeze all-in
BTN-4 folds, I call and win vs A8o
Assumptions:
- Seen a lot of exploitable squeezes here (A8o case in point)
Computations:
- Getting 2:1 don't think I can fold a pair
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Hand #126
CO (Me) (125bb) AhTs Open2x
SB (45bb) call
Flop (6bb) Kd9h6s
x - x
Turn (6bb) Kd9h6s7d
SB Bets 1.5bb - call
River (9bb) Kd9h6s7d4h
SB bets 6bb - call
lose to K7
Just a bad miscomputation here; we should have plenty to defend besides Ace-high
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Hand #130
BTN-4 (30bb) Open2.1x
BTN-2 (Me) (115bb) KdQd call
Flop (7bb): 6d6c3h
BTN-4 cbet 3.5bb - I call
Turn (14bb): 6d6c3hTd
x - x
River (14bb): 6d6c3hTd8s
x - x
lose to AQ
Assumptions:
- Expect BTN - 4 to defend well vs 3bs
- Toss up whether BTN - 4 stacks off with AQ-AK, underpairs often enough vs my float turn - barrel river attempts
Computations:
- Pre playing a pure flat strat; I'd mix 3bs very polar (A8s-ATs; A5s; AJo-AKo; TXs; T9s; K9s)
- Turn yeah certainly gonna bet this one often but:
- I'd have worse that function better as bluffs (KJs, K9s, QJs)
- We beat quite a bit of BTN-4 decline barrel turn range (KJs, K9s, K7s, QJs, Q9s, J9s)
- I've certainly called down AK-AQ for stacks in spots like this and I'm very sure I'm +chips doing so; but perhaps others are not so willing to do this--not to mention 99, 77, 55 that can hero if we're gonna have air--and so perhaps considering anything except the possibility of overfolds and, thus, playing anything but a pure float turn- barrel river strat is a miscomputation. We may not necessarily lose EV vs the field with my line, but we don't gain any either and there may be quite a bit of EV to be taken in this spot
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Hand #154
CO (Me) (95bb) JdTd Open2x
BB (55bb) call
Flop (6bb): Jh8s6s
x - bet 2bb - raise 3.5x - c
Turn (20bb) : Jh8s6sAc
Barrel 20bb - call
River (60bb) : Jh8s6sAc7s
x -x
I lose to J8
Assumptions:
- Boy turn sure seemed overbluffed given assumed population tendencies to fold Jx once the Ac peels (which I do believe is highly exploitable)
- River I think I made a poor assumption about what he declines to triple (which is most likely his two pair and sets)
Computations:
- Turn I'm really confident we need to continue with a ton of our Jx; KJ is almost surely better I think but we have 8x, 6x, 99, Q9s, Q9o, QTs, QTo, T7s that are all weaker, we'd fold a lot of Ax vs the flop xr, Jx are still pretty high up in our range and I think there's a ton of maneuverability for BBs to own COs in this spot via his exact line
- River I think I miscomputed how strong our Jx is now, once virtually all his bluffs get there. If he doesn't have enough traps, and if he isn't capable of hero'ing two pair, I think bluffing JT is highest EV and I'm not thrilled with my x back
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Hand #157
BTN-4 (Me) (55bb) AcKs Open2x
BTN-3 (100bb) calls
Flop (7bb) Jd2s4h
I bet 2bb - call
Turn (11bb) Jd2s4h5s
Barrel 5.5bb - raise 16bb - call
River (43bb)
x - all in (35bb) - I fold
Assumptions:
- Lots of universes where IP overfolds 66-TT
- BTN-3 should have few sets (22, 44, 55 not close to pure flats if at all) but in practice people will have exploitably many.
Computations:
- Always rolling for a strategy that ignores the fact we get a lot or worse to fold via the barrel; trying to capitalize on the times he can't find the call with TT- (which I compute as him needing to do about half the time)
- Turn call in retrospect feels wrong given assumptions about population flat pre tendencies, and furthermore because we are blocking spades,
- But I think we're pretty exploitable if we unblock spades; we can totally call down with AhKd since he can have AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KsQs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsTs
Turn continue vs the raise I think was a miscomputation
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Hand #163
BTN-2 (100bb) Open2x
CO (me) (33bb) JcJh 3b2.5x
BTN-2 calls
Flop (13bb): 6c7d8c
x - x
Turn (13bb): 6c7d8c2s
BTN-2 bets 4bb - I raise 28bb all-in - he folds
Assumptions
- Blocking JcXc not ideal but he should still have (as profitable defends vs my 3b2.5x range) A8s, K8s, T8s, 98s, TcXc, 9cXc, AcQc, Ac2c-Ac5c, KcQc
Computations:
- Crappy flop, backdoor FD notwithstanding; mixing checks and cbets for small sizing
- even blocking the FD I think this is a max-EV jam turn vs the probe
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Hand #174
BTN-6 (60bb) Open2.4x
BTN-2 (Me) (35bb) JJ Call
BTN (60bb) 3b2.75x
BTN-6 4bs AI immediately
I fold
Computations:
- Quick fold for me, think this is an easy one (BTN has KK)
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Hand #188
BTN-2 (40bb) Open2x
BTN (Me) (26bb) ATo 3bAI
He folds
Assumptions:
- BTN-2 seen opening 85s from CO off 22bb stack
Computations:
- Defense range vs 3bAI could be as wide as 55, A9s, AJo, KTs
- This was a deliberate exploit, and to be honest I think it was likely a miscomputation that I got away with. That being said, pure 3b to 5bb is very attractive and the dynamic between BTN-2 and me up to this point (more specifically: the lack thereof) would have me believe that he's still vulnerable to overfolds vs 3b2.5x--much more so than vs the jam
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Hand #205
BTN-5 (100bb) Open2x
BTN (60bb) calls
SB (30bb) (Me) AA Squeeze3x
BB (10bb) 4b all-in
BTN-5 folds
BTN 4bAI
AA vs AK vs A6o
Flop (72bb): QJTr game over
Computations:
- I'd have A9s-ATs, AJo-AQo, KQo, TXs as balancers here but sure my value range is basically all AA. People do not adjust well to that--hence AK coming over the top and probably losing a ton of EV doing so vs most people in the population.
Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 06-08-2023 at 03:10 AM.