You're in. Sending a PM.

PS your results are sick. This is a real confidence-booster. Thanks!

Here's what I've got so far




At this point currently oversold compared to the original offer.

But, interest is apparently high so I'll open up more.

As of this post up to 18 more blocks/shares/percent etc available.

Thanks for the interest!

It's becoming clear I need to be very flexible with how to send and receive money. I might have underestimated the extent to which poker players are diffused globally.

So I'm happy to receive bitcoin, eth, usdc etc and I'll send back fiat or USDC or a different asset if you're fine with receiving that. In fact some have already paid me in eth. Whatever makes the administration of this thing as easy as possible.

Sold 3 blocks to my best friend. Have 15 still available if there's still any interest.

Sent in 15 more blocks to fill it out. I'm on a ****ing heater and I've decided Eggs McBluffin will continue the immortal heater.

Let's ride.

Action is categorically closed. Way oversold. Thanks for the support guys! This should be quite fun!

I've arrived in Vegas! Good luck everyone!

At first i was disappointed that im very late stumbling into this thread to say happy birthday.

And now somewhat more disappointed that action is closed. Probably would have been one of my better recent wagers.

Good luck.

Stacked in the $1500, only lasted 61 hands.
______________

Hand #1:

3-handed w/ a dead SB, 250bb stacks

CO (Me): KK Open2bb
BTN: 3b2.5x
SB: call
Me: 4b4x


BTN Fold- SB call


Flop (47bb): J86r
x-Cb 8bb-r 28bb-fold


Assumptions:

• think the cold call-call line is starkly weighted to pairs 66-QQ with an emphasis on 66-JJ; some AK; smaller amounts of AT-AQ and worse suited broadway.

Computations:

• J86 therefore a pretty bad flop for us, guessing its maybe 10th-15th percentile EV.

• It dawned on me that SB might get ample donks but would fail to do so in practice; therefore we should check back a lot and only use tiny to small cbet sizings (her decline donk range will be exploitably strong)

• I realize fold flop is highly differentiated from the population but I'm not calling a barrel and I think I'm losing probably 90% of the time, so I just fold here. Cognizant that I'm either winning or losing a lot of EV with my strategy

__________________

Hand #2

BTN 270bb Open2bb
BB (Me) 220bb QJo 3b4x
BTN 4b3.5x

I fold


Assumptions and Computations:

• Don't think BTN openers defend wide enough and will 3b here always, and always using smaller-than-equilibrium sizings, assuming that BTN will proportionately overfold vs the smaller sizings.

• A9o, offsuit broadways, all 2gappers, a lot of 7Xs, all KXs I think is a reasonable estimate of what the average BTN opener needs to defend vs the 4x and I don't think that happens in practice

_______________________

Hand #6

SB 250bb checks
BB (Me) 200bb 83o Open4x

SB folds

Finally won a pot!


Computations:

• Always opening ATC vs the check until SB shows me that he can defend properly; assuming he won't

___________________

Hand #8

BTN (me) 200bb 7x6h Open3x
BB 275bb calls


Flop (7.5bb): 9h7h5h

x-Cbet 1bb-raise4x-c

Turn (16bb) 9h7h5hAd

barrel 8bb-c

River 9h7h5hAdJs

triple 10bb-fold


Computations:

• Would rather bluff something unblocking 99, 77, 55, 97, 95. So that gives me AhX, JT or J8 with a heart, 22-44 with a heart. I did roll for a tiny amount of bluffs and took the passive route

__________________________________________________ __________________

Hand #13

BTN-1 (Me) 180bb AcQc Open3x
BTN 275bb 3b2.7x

I 4b2.75x and he calls

Flop (47bb) Ad4d3s

x-x

Turn (47bb) Ad4d3s8c

x-Bet 16bb-call

River (79bb) Ad4d3s8c4h

Donk 30bb-call

BTN mucks.

Assumptions:

• AQ not an auto stack off on all runouts and he has a ton of AK but dramatically less AJ-; he'll non-linearly reduce his 3b frequency going from AK to AJ-

• Turn his delay float will have too many QQ, JJ, TT.

Computations:

• Given assumptions about turn range I expect him to have a few extra heros in his range and I think people get intransigent with pocket pairs when the pot is this big an my line is this passive in a 4b pot

• I also expect too many x backs with AJ- (I see people lose value in this manner very often)

• So based on that, I'm computing donk river for something neither small nor large to be highest EV.

_________________________________


Hand #21

BTN (Me) Ks8c Open2x
SB and BB both call

Flop (7bb) Jh8h3d

x-x-cbet 2bb-SB raises to 8bb-BB folds-We call

Turn (23bb): Jh8h3d3s

Bet 8bb-call

River (49bb) Jh8h3d3s9h

Bet 16bb-fold

Computations

• Bad river and don’t think we ever need to defend this one, lacking flush and straight blockers

_______________________________
Hand #23

BTN (175bb) Open2x
SB (175bb) call
BB (Me) (110bb) QJo Squeeze to 10bb

Both fold


Assumptions and computations

• See Hand #2; not yet deterred from assuming overfolds here (even when choosing the 10bb sizing) so basically always squeezing here

________________________

Hand # 28

BTN-2 (Me) (110bb) 5d5h Open2x
BB (Covers) Calls

Flop (6bb) Qd8d3h

x-Cbet 1bb-c

Turn (8bb) Qd8d3d

Donk 4bb-call

River (16bb) Qd8d3h3d4c

Bet 16bb-fold

Computations:

• Would raise 5d5x as often as any other potential bluff in my range. Do think I get him off 3x and some people might fold a small amount of flushes. I rolled passive and folded

____________________________

Hand #33

BTN-2 (Me) (100bb) 5d5h Open2x
CO (10bb) calls
BTN, BB both call (90bb eff between them)


Flop (10bb) 8c4s3c

BB checks, we check, CO ships 8bb, folds to us and we call; J8s is good


Computations

• seems like a standard call for a <PSB ship unblocking FDs, and CO can have A4s, K4s, A3ds K3s, 54s, perhaps more

______________________________

Hand #35

BTN (Covers) Open2x
SB (Me) (87bb) T9s 3b4.25x
BB (25bb) 4b25bb (all-in)

BTN folds and we call; AK holds up

Assumptions:

• Same V from Hand #33; seen opening Q2s from BTN-2 and VPIP north of 70%

Computations

• getting better than 2:1 I’m not folding T9s

_________________________________________

Hand #41

BTN-2 (110bb) Open4x
BTN (Me) (40bb) JhJx call
SB (35bb) call

Flop KcTh6h

Cbet(6bb)-I fold

Assumptions

• Ranging the 4x and MUCH tighter than can be opened from BTN-2 in theory, heavily weighted to AK, AQ, 99-KK

Computation

• Pre rolled for a small amount of 3bs only, though perhaps pure 3bis better if we assume they never fold 99-TT which is probably true; think at least at equilibrium this is only a very low frequency 3b and therefore think flat pre is at least justifiable

• feels dirty to fold JJ with a double backdoor especially IP but we’re multiway and I think the bet will be underbluffed which, coupled with the assumptions about pre, induced me to fold

__________________________________________________ _
Hand #49

CO (55bb) Open2.3x
BB (Me) (27bb) A5s 3b27bb (all-in)

CO folds


Assumptions

• V seen opening Q2s from BTN-2

• V VPIP north of 70%

• Think he never defends wide enough which might be as wide as 22+, A2ss+, A5o+, suited broadways, KJo+, 9Xs

Computation:

• Pure 3b all-in

______________________________

Hand #56

CO (110bb) Open2.3x
BTN (30bb) QJo call

Flop (7bb) Ad8c5d x-x
Turn (7bb) Ad8c5dKs x-x
River (7bb) Ad8c5dKs4h

CO Bet 3.5bb-call (lose to KJ)

Assumptions:

• at this point I think CO (who’s some sort of sponsored pro from Korea) will defend optimally vs 3bs which probably means no folds with 22+, A2s+, ATo+, KJo+, QJo, any SCs, and suited 2-gappers, any 8Xs, all suited Kings, Q5s-Q7s

Computations:

• Would play mixed 3b2.75x/flat strat and rolled passively hence the flat pre

• River I know that Q-high is printing vs my own strategy (I’d stab river with all J-high and worse and I’d have JT, J9, J7s, J6s, J5s, T9, T7s, T6s, 97s, 96s) since I expect Q-high needs to be hero-ed a lot (we don’t have very many Ax, 88, 55; I’m skeptical that we have enough Kx, PPs, 44 and 8x to obviate us from sometimes calling nut no-pair without being unexploitable vs non-large stab sizing. WE probably need to defend 2/3 our range to avoid being unexploitable

________________________________

Hand #61

BTN (Me) (15bb) A8o Open all-in
BB calls and wins


Computation

• obvious ship pre

Thanks Bob.

Only won 5/61 hands in this 1at one,and one of those for 1bb net another only 2.5bb net.

Would expect to win 15-16 pots in that span

Very low percentile outcome, on to the $2500 freezeout tomorrow

lets go joe!!! day 2 incoming!!

love how you're doing but jesus christ you HAVE to relook at that kings hand....especially that deep.....dont overestimate who u play against early they will stack off with top pair with a smile

Hey man!

Very well could be, not sure how often people wind up with Jx there then stack off for 250bb but your guess is probably as good as mine.

Out after 204 hands in this $2500 freezeout. About 1.2 levels away from end of late reg. Probably a median outcome for most (assuming about half the field was left at that point?).

Had it up to 3x a starting stack (see Hand #30, Hand #77, Hand #125) then lost the next 10/15 VPIPs, down to 15bb.

Double up. Then very next hand lose with AA vs AK and A6, all-in pre (72bb pot; AK flops a straight).

Played neither my best nor worst event. I guess there's some satisfaction knowing that I was 86% of the way to achieving a well above median outcome (72bb after 200 hands; 1 level of late reg to go) despite playing maybe my C/C+ game.

And if that's enough to get me 86% of the way to a well above-median outcome (72bb after 200 hands; 1 levelto go of late reg) then I'm satisfied. I feel I dont need to play anywhere close to my best to do better than average in a high-stakes event with pretty stiff competition
_______________


Hand #6

Dead BB

CO (350bb) Open3x
SB (Me) (350bb) Jh6h Call



Flop (8bb): 2s2cKh

x-x

Turn (8bb) 2s2cKh9h

x- Bet 4bb- I x raise to 12bb- call

River (32bb) 2s2cKh9h4c

x- Bet 8bb - I fold


Computations:

• Not inclined to barrel whiffed hearts; I'd have straight draws unblocking hearts and some Ax if I wanted to try to get him off a 9 or a King (mixing sizings on the river as I'd have Kx and 2x+ I'd both want to value)

___________________________


Hand #17

BTN-3 (Me) (330bb) 6d6s Open2x
BTN (350bb) 3b3x

I call

Flop: (15bb) 3d4h5h

x-bet 8bb-raise 3x-fold


Computations:

• xr this combo almost always; pretty sure my xr frequency is justifiable highly exploitative
• expect there to be multiple sources of EV here, given we're damn strong--equity denial, fat value, all merged into one.
• think we're higher EV than JJ even
• also expect overfolds from Ax

___________________________

Hand #30


BTN-2 (165bb) Open2x
BTN (Me) (175bb) 5c3c 3b3x

V calls

Flop (15bb): 2h4s7d

x-Bet 7.5bb-Raise 3.2x-call

Turn (57bb): 2h4s7d6d

Bet 50bb - Raise 2x - All-in for 1.3x more

I win vs 77




Assumptions:

• ATo, KJo, all KXs, all suited 2-gappers, all 8Xs at least are, at a minimum, the bounds of his defense vs 3b; could possible be wider
• Think people start really overfolding vs the small 3b sizings when opening from HJ and later
• Xr sizing followed barrel sizing smelled like a set with exploitably few overpairs and air

Computations:

• Given assumptions about pre, this is a clear exploitative 100% 3b as a default, using the small sizing (no history yet); doubt it's exploitable to 3b at low frequency
• We have one of the highest EV combos vs his xr, probably higher than at least JJ
• Turn my thinking is there's a very small chance he'd slow down on rivers, but a 0% chance he can find a fold vs the cheeky minraise
• He is never ahead vs my turn line, he only has boat outs 100% of the time. I don't think 77 are even profitable to continue.

______________________


Hand #42

BTN-4 (80bb) Open2.7x
BTN-3 (Me) (225bb) JJ call
BB (100bb) c

Flop (10bb) 897r

x-x-x

Turn (10bb) 897rJr

x- I bet 2bb- BB calls-fold

River: (14bb) 897rJr4

x- I bet 7bb- xr 7x-I fold


Assumptions:

• BTN-4 opener gonna defend well vs 3bs after Open2.7x
• River the sizing only really makes sense of QT or air (would almost surely have to be 7x, 8x, or 9x turned into a bluff)
• I'd certainly have Tx of my own here; QT too

Computations:

• JJ a mix pre, small frequency 3b; not keen to exploit here
• Flop certainly BTN-4 can have overpairs still; both can have trapped set; mixing flop bet or x seems best
• River does not feel like a checkback--we'd have 66, 55, AK and AQ that would barrel bluff and even if my air range isn't too wide I think people will miscompute river x-c strats and get too sticky with 2pr, perhaps even a jack
• Don't think we need to ever defend JJ vs river xr for huge sizing

_______________________

Hand #54

BTN (65bb) Open2.3x
Me (210bb) 96o 3b3.5x

BTN folds


Assumptions:
Massive overfolds from BTN based on a lot of hard data

• Think at the very least he'll exploitably fail to defend A9o, JTo-KTo, 7Xs, KXs

Computations

• exploitative pure 3b

________________________________

Hand #77



BTN-6 (32bb) Open2x
BTN-4 (120bb) (Me) KcJc call
BB (70bb) call

Flop (8bb): 3s6c8c

x- Opener cbets 4bb- I call - BB folds

Turn (16bb): 3s6c8c9d

Barrel 12bb - I call

River (40bb) 3s6c8c9dKh

Triple 14bb (all-in) - I call

I win vs TT


Assumptions:

• Pre a mix 50/50
• I think I'm always getting tripled into once he uses that turn sizing

Computations:

• Thinking I'm effectively getting 3.5:1 on turn--always getting his stack when I improve--think the hand basically plays itself; simple spot really, in my opinion
• not even confident that his stacking off with TT on, say, the brick 2h river is correct vs most players; we'd see JJ, some QQ, certainly 66,88,99 (people will flat pre with 33, too--though I would not) and he'd need BTN-4 to float whiffed club draws for bluffs, which people may just give up

___________________________

After a number of fairly uninteresting hands...

Hand #123

BTN (27bb) Open2.1x
Me (100bb) Th8x call

Flop (6bb): 6c6c2h

x - Bet 2bb - I raise to 5bb - BTN folds


Computations

• Mixing defend and 3b3x pre
• Flop think vs BTN open we get to xr a ton with double-backdoors+2 overs; we likely get overfolds from Ax and that's likely true as we string along barrels
• I'm xr often here and barreling many runouts (hearts, 7s, 9s certainly)

_____________________

Hand #125

BTN-4 (50bb) Open2.1x
BTN (Me) (100bb) 22 call
BB (21bb) Squeeze all-in

BTN-4 folds, I call and win vs A8o


Assumptions:

• Seen a lot of exploitable squeezes here (A8o case in point)

Computations:

• Getting 2:1 don't think I can fold a pair

________________________

Hand #126


CO (Me) (125bb) AhTs Open2x
SB (45bb) call

Flop (6bb) Kd9h6s

x - x

Turn (6bb) Kd9h6s7d

SB Bets 1.5bb - call

River (9bb) Kd9h6s7d4h

SB bets 6bb - call

lose to K7


Just a bad miscomputation here; we should have plenty to defend besides Ace-high
________________________

Hand #130


BTN-4 (30bb) Open2.1x
BTN-2 (Me) (115bb) KdQd call

Flop (7bb): 6d6c3h

BTN-4 cbet 3.5bb - I call

Turn (14bb): 6d6c3hTd

x - x

River (14bb): 6d6c3hTd8s

x - x

lose to AQ



Assumptions:

• Expect BTN - 4 to defend well vs 3bs
• Toss up whether BTN - 4 stacks off with AQ-AK, underpairs often enough vs my float turn - barrel river attempts

Computations:

• Pre playing a pure flat strat; I'd mix 3bs very polar (A8s-ATs; A5s; AJo-AKo; TXs; T9s; K9s)
• Turn yeah certainly gonna bet this one often but:
• I'd have worse that function better as bluffs (KJs, K9s, QJs)
• We beat quite a bit of BTN-4 decline barrel turn range (KJs, K9s, K7s, QJs, Q9s, J9s)
• I've certainly called down AK-AQ for stacks in spots like this and I'm very sure I'm +chips doing so; but perhaps others are not so willing to do this--not to mention 99, 77, 55 that can hero if we're gonna have air--and so perhaps considering anything except the possibility of overfolds and, thus, playing anything but a pure float turn- barrel river strat is a miscomputation. We may not necessarily lose EV vs the field with my line, but we don't gain any either and there may be quite a bit of EV to be taken in this spot

_________________

Hand #154

CO (Me) (95bb) JdTd Open2x
BB (55bb) call

Flop (6bb): Jh8s6s

x - bet 2bb - raise 3.5x - c

Turn (20bb) : Jh8s6sAc

Barrel 20bb - call

River (60bb) : Jh8s6sAc7s

x -x

I lose to J8


Assumptions:

• Boy turn sure seemed overbluffed given assumed population tendencies to fold Jx once the Ac peels (which I do believe is highly exploitable)
• River I think I made a poor assumption about what he declines to triple (which is most likely his two pair and sets)

Computations:

• Turn I'm really confident we need to continue with a ton of our Jx; KJ is almost surely better I think but we have 8x, 6x, 99, Q9s, Q9o, QTs, QTo, T7s that are all weaker, we'd fold a lot of Ax vs the flop xr, Jx are still pretty high up in our range and I think there's a ton of maneuverability for BBs to own COs in this spot via his exact line
• River I think I miscomputed how strong our Jx is now, once virtually all his bluffs get there. If he doesn't have enough traps, and if he isn't capable of hero'ing two pair, I think bluffing JT is highest EV and I'm not thrilled with my x back

__________________

Hand #157

BTN-4 (Me) (55bb) AcKs Open2x
BTN-3 (100bb) calls

Flop (7bb) Jd2s4h

I bet 2bb - call

Turn (11bb) Jd2s4h5s

Barrel 5.5bb - raise 16bb - call

River (43bb)

x - all in (35bb) - I fold


Assumptions:

• Lots of universes where IP overfolds 66-TT
• BTN-3 should have few sets (22, 44, 55 not close to pure flats if at all) but in practice people will have exploitably many.

Computations:

• Always rolling for a strategy that ignores the fact we get a lot or worse to fold via the barrel; trying to capitalize on the times he can't find the call with TT- (which I compute as him needing to do about half the time)
• Turn call in retrospect feels wrong given assumptions about population flat pre tendencies, and furthermore because we are blocking spades,
• But I think we're pretty exploitable if we unblock spades; we can totally call down with AhKd since he can have AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KsQs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsTs

Turn continue vs the raise I think was a miscomputation
_________________________

Hand #163

BTN-2 (100bb) Open2x
CO (me) (33bb) JcJh 3b2.5x

BTN-2 calls

Flop (13bb): 6c7d8c

x - x

Turn (13bb): 6c7d8c2s

BTN-2 bets 4bb - I raise 28bb all-in - he folds


Assumptions

• Blocking JcXc not ideal but he should still have (as profitable defends vs my 3b2.5x range) A8s, K8s, T8s, 98s, TcXc, 9cXc, AcQc, Ac2c-Ac5c, KcQc

Computations:

• Crappy flop, backdoor FD notwithstanding; mixing checks and cbets for small sizing
• even blocking the FD I think this is a max-EV jam turn vs the probe

____________________

Hand #174

BTN-6 (60bb) Open2.4x
BTN-2 (Me) (35bb) JJ Call
BTN (60bb) 3b2.75x

BTN-6 4bs AI immediately
I fold


Computations:

• Quick fold for me, think this is an easy one (BTN has KK)

____________________

Hand #188

BTN-2 (40bb) Open2x
BTN (Me) (26bb) ATo 3bAI

He folds

Assumptions:

• BTN-2 seen opening 85s from CO off 22bb stack

Computations:

• Defense range vs 3bAI could be as wide as 55, A9s, AJo, KTs
• This was a deliberate exploit, and to be honest I think it was likely a miscomputation that I got away with. That being said, pure 3b to 5bb is very attractive and the dynamic between BTN-2 and me up to this point (more specifically: the lack thereof) would have me believe that he's still vulnerable to overfolds vs 3b2.5x--much more so than vs the jam

______________

Hand #205

BTN-5 (100bb) Open2x
BTN (60bb) calls
SB (30bb) (Me) AA Squeeze3x
BB (10bb) 4b all-in

BTN-5 folds
BTN 4bAI

AA vs AK vs A6o

Flop (72bb): QJTr game over


Computations:

• I'd have A9s-ATs, AJo-AQo, KQo, TXs as balancers here but sure my value range is basically all AA. People do not adjust well to that--hence AK coming over the top and probably losing a ton of EV doing so vs most people in the population.

Unfortunately only lasted 37 hands in this $3k 6-Max

Hand #37:

BTN (200bb) Open 2bb
BB (90bb) (Me) As9s 3b4x

BTN calls

Flop (18bb) 2h7d8c

Bet 9bb - call

Turn (36bb) 2h7d8cQh

Bet 22bb - call

River (80bb) 2h7d8cQhKc

Bet 50bb (all-in) BTN calls I lose to 33

• Was a bit surprised to get called by 5th pair but he did compute a great solution, I think it's justifiable.
• Came to the conclusion that 8x, 7x are much better catchers for IP compared to 99-JJ
• For our strategy I think it's justifiable to attack overfolds on these overcard runouts
• River I'm assuming ranges are such that its likely IP has to call especially A8s, A7s, other 8x and 7x; it could be tough to do.
• I'm not sure what percentile stickyness we need V to be before giving up. My assumption was that only the stickiest will call it off unexploitably.

River I think the ranges on average look something like these:

BB:




BTN:

• I doubt that nearly all AA, KK, QQ are in there and adding in a lot of those doesn't prevent BTN from having to call most/all 8x
  
• I'm assuming vs my pre 4x that even 7Xs need to come along (and I believe they will). Possible that all KXs should and will see flop, too.
  
• Remove a lot of 33-66 and still he almost never can fold a pair without being exploited.
  
• I think my computations were really solid. I didn't consider anything besides ship. Maybe I'm underestimating how sticky on average people will be here?

Do not disagree with the math, but I think there might have been an issue with live reads or how the Villain perceived you.