I'm willing to up my BOA to 10% in the event more people un-reserve.

The counterargument to this is that the 2p2 marketplace is not a free market and it is rigged in the favor of sellers, since no one can sell another person's action.

Furthermore, this unbalanced system sets precedents which drive up prices, and there is no way to short these higher prices without breaking the rules of 2p2. So it is certainly in the best interest of frequent investors to point out instances of unfair pricing.

I was bored and created this tool using last years payout structure. It assumes one is equally likely to win every match, which isn't true, but is an easy simplification.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...OakFZNlE#gid=0

According to this if you're 50% to win a match, you're -16% ROI. You must have made an error unless I'm missing something.

I don't think this is correct. You have to do two probabilities, one being you get a bye, one you don't, and then do what you just did (adjusting payouts for bye only needing 6 wins to win) and multiply by each probability and sum.

here is the correct one:


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...6RlpaRWc#gid=0


as I said about 53.25% winrate justifies +1.25 : 1 , get to 54.5% and your way over.


(obv if I was 50% to win vs the field I would not even be playing, and def. not selling at MU, nor would anyone buy of me)

Im not really sure why there is an issue with him selling and 1.25 if he only has a 26% roi. If we knew this was his actual roi with no chance of scamming or anything going wrong, then there would be plenty of people willing to take it. The idea that profits should be split equally between the horse and the backer is absurd.

whether a 26% roi is attainable in this field is a different matter entirely

As mastr pointed out, that <1%ROI for the investors would end up being a bad investment in terms of bankroll growth for most of the investors. You can do math to show it's +EV, but it's still a bad investment despite that.

And knowingly selling a bad investment in this forum is clearly not ok.

Ok but please let's CLEAR UP that I in no way think this is a bad investment, if I didn't have a baby on the way I'd take 100% of myself in it like I did last year, and I don't just punt off 10ks of my own $ if I thought I had like 5-10% ROI, I definitely think I'm more than 1.25 and think my stats/background justify that.

Just don't like the tone of a bunch of the posts making it seem like they assume I'm selling a bad investment. I absolutely think I am worth 1.25, but as for the generalities/math of what is sustainable / achievable in this I'm totally fine discussing it as well as the general marketplace stuff

A+ thread.

I am not playing this tourney, but I beleive I would have highest ROI in the field. I still wouldnt sell at 1.25 as I think it would be wrong. If youre gonna market your package as a good buy by listing off all your credentials, you should be making damn sure youre leaving ample room for your investors to profit.

Also, what is the deal with your lock affiliate site?

Who do u think you are? riyyc25?

+1. i'll take all the action if u let me send u my worthless ****** lock money to pay for it. lol @ saying u'd wear the patch too... what a joke.

Scam seems ridiculous in a few respects.

First, anyone following the Lock thread in NVG that believes Lock is a poorly run company that lies to their customers (count me as one of those people) clearly sees that Bryan believes in Lock. If he believes in Lock despite so many negative scandals and clear lies that have gone down, then how on earth could you argue that a rather thin argument on this package being slightly -EV or breakeven means he is knowingly misleading and scamming people? Based on that Lock thread, I would believe that Bryan believes 3-1 is a good price here (overstating a bit, but you should see my point). If you're trying to say Bryan is unknowingly offering a poor deal here, then that starts to become an OK argument I suppose, but he's still laying out a better argument for him not being -EV to those that feel he's a very good HU SNG player.

Second, Bryan does make some good points on why he is still a positive buy in this. He uses stats, comparisons to the most relevant game types, it looks fairly reasonable. If you disagree, you may even be right, but if cases are being laid out, Bryan is winning currently.

Green has semi made the best point against by saying he'd be the best in this field (reasonable enough given his historical success this year over a large hu sample vs great players), but he still doesn't argue with #s (what's your winrate/ROI in this, Dan?).

Hundrye, another guy who could claim near best to best in this event (skaiwalkurrr if anyone doesn't know), sides with Bryan here and seems willing to back up that some of the top guys in this field are > 25% by offering to bet on it with odds. This doesn't make it true, but it is a decently put argument from an expert, who is willing to solidify the viewpoint with wagered money. If Green isn't dicking around, a bet with Hundrye seems like it would interest both sides.

Third point, while all this debate is interesting to read, it doesn't seem very appropriate (I'm not a mod in this forum so don't think my words mean more than any other poster here). Stevebets sold to a higher buyin, tougher event (stars hu 25k event) for 2-1 and it didn't get this much outcry. He was one of the worst few in that field (which is no insult, it was an insanely tough field). As Bryan pointed out, you have some people criticizing in this thread that he can make an equal argument against their previous sales at various markups as well. That seems valid, so do people on Bryan's side just go crowd into their threads and angrily post about how they are scamming? The MP wouldn't likely be functional if every thread like this got so derailed.*

I'm all for calling out scams (I think the NVG Lock thread was fine, it made a lot of good points and forced people taking tons of money from a shady looking company to defend on the record and push for answers), but if you're trying to prove that this thread is a scam, it gets thrown out on the first hearing. A post asking why he feels 1.25 is a good deal, letting him explain, then deciding whether or not to buy, seems reasonable. But nothing about SM is reasonable.

*And obviously the Lock hate is going to carry over into anything a Lock pro does. That's just sort of the vig for representing the site in my mind, whether or not that is fair to the pros, I don't know, but it seems obvious that it is going to happen, and has less to do with the community and more to do with Lock than anything.

IF u believe what u said in the first paragraph to be true all lock pro's should be banned from marketplace.

If marketplace isn't allowed for this, surely MTTc Community should allow it based on Timex's SM threads. A thread there should definitely be opened for people to book action for/against at 1.xx/1.

Also, why was munk banned this time? I sure hope it wasn't because of his posts ITT. He clearly adds educational value to what is currently quite a stupid investor pool.

It's also pretty obvious 2p2 is not a free market and is heavily skewed in favor of sellers. It still amazes me that people think Marketplace is a free market.

Lol how can you compare this event ROI with Scott's in high rollers which are usually 8max? There is such a huge structural difference. You can't compare a HU shoot out to a random freeze out.

I reckon if I sold in mp for this and posted results I'd easily get markup and sell out fast, but there are advantages to selling privately (especially to the person I sold to) so that's why I sold lower. I also like to leave profit for my investors so they'll be getting a good deal, see that im a fair guy, and keep investing in me when I'm looking to sell for 25k+ events.

u actually thanked dat moose for making a ******ed post comparing a 10k hu to full ring mtts with a similar buyin?

this might not be a value package but to say it is a scam package is insane unless prim runs away with the money. There are people who just want to degen their money who is to blame them. If people are willing to spend thousand of dollar not doing their due diligence than that is their problem. Even if this is a -ev investment no one is putting a gun to their head and telling them to buy, their fault for making a bad investment. If you think there is a lot of dead money in selling packages then play mtt sell package and profit. It is not stealing when people are giving you money willingly and you haven't lied about anything. Over time when you never show a profit people wouldn't keep investing.

2+2 probably doesn't allow shorting since it seems like the person is being an online bookie but shorting would create a better marketplace.

I'm pretty impartial here but wanted to chime in.

Wow there's a ton of misdirected hostility here. PrimordialAA has clearly done nothing wrong. His original post contained no misinformation or attempts to "scam" anyone. He stated his background and the price he was seeking, people wanted to buy at that price... this is the way a marketplace is supposed to function. If people are pissed at him about Lock, then that's a separate issue.

If I list my old subaru on ebay for $100K, that is not a scam. The market will decide whether that is worth $100K or not. As long as I'm not lying about the car, posting pictures of ferraris or claiming it gets 150 MPG, I'm not scamming anyone. If someone decides it is worth that much and is willing to put down their money, that is ok.

If you don't think buying his staking package at 1.25:1 is profitable, then don't do it, that's fine. If others think it is, or want to buy into it just to have a sweat, that's fine too. People can set a price, see what action they get, and make transactions here freely. Assuming no false info is being provided, anyone getting in the way of that is 100% in the wrong here. Carry on.

I think the big difference is that a lot of people don't understand or comprehend realistic ROI's in some of these events. It's not as easy if you're not experienced in tournament poker ROI's to see a bad deal in poker over seeing a suburu on eBay for $100k which without being an expert in the car field will obviously appear a worse buy because it's easier to value a good like a car without being an expert over a players tournament markup.

It wasn't that long ago in the grand scheme of things where it wasn't uncommon to hear people buying others into tournaments and splitting profits 50/50 no makeup which now would be laughed at for almost all people in all fields as a terrible investment from the backer.

A lot of the problem is the buyers lack of knowledge on sustainable ROIs - I believe others should be aloud to input negative comments in threads as well as the standard friends coming in chiming for the guy.

Really surprises me how ludicrously off base some of the posters in here are. I don't know how you get to 5k+ posts flinging uneducated drivel at a thread that is really not that conceptually difficult to understand. Mattraq and Asgrow and a couple others seem to be on the right track but plz allow me to offer some cliffs:

• Referring to a MP thread as a "scam" because you personally don't believe that it's a good investment is out of line and insulting.
• Justifying your opinion that it's a "scam" by loosely applying statistical analysis to results in somewhat similar events and trying to draw a connection, albeit weak, between those events and this one, is not very concrete justification.
• Suggesting that you or anybody else has a duty to drop in and police the MP by flinging poo and calling all the buyers naive, and further appealing to the warm-hearted citizen in all of us by attempting to relate this imaginary duty to that of the rescue of a woman being raped on the street, is just laughably off base.

Call me naive but I don't think PrimordialAA spent hours hunched over scheming how he could scam the marketplace for as much money possible. It is no secret that PrimordialAA thinks very highly of his own game, so if you think it is marked up too high, the only thing haters could say with even the slightest bit of merit is that Primordial overestimates his own edge. I am in absolutely no place to comment on the truth of that statement but I would guess that if this investment truly is -EV for the backer, it is because Primordial doesn't have the edge he thinks he does, not because he knows exactly what his edge is and is price fixing to rip off investors.

You can't just say "I'm 53.5 in each match." Your win percent is going to be decreasing from match to match.

Barely. If everyone was 50% it wouldnt at all.