Knowingly selling a -ev package is absolutely a scam

In b4 you try to explain how ICM works in a shootout.

some raving lunatics in here - if you dont want to invest then dont invest.. like people dont realize 1.25 is pricy for a 10k hu.

You see a women getting raped on the side of the road and just walk by. No need to do the police's job. No need to get involved.

what a ridiculous analogy

Fwiw I sold at face in this event.

I think the best in the field likely does not have better than a 30% ROI.

Hint: look at last year's payouts.

^ 1.1 #face

Hint: I did, JFC how ridiculous are you guys, I need a 53.5% average winrate vs the field to be >25% , actually slightly less than that, if you don't think I have an average winrate of 53.5% don't invest, I however, obviously believe I do have at least that much and I don't think it's that hard to fathom at all.

Seriously BackRaiseNYC how can the loudest person in here but such an uneducated !@($*ing dullard throwing around ridiculous #s when you have absolutely no idea.

Also TwoSHAE based on the structure I am like a million times more qualified to play this event than you, I understand that most HU Cash guys are not going to be huge favorites based on the structure, if you think you are feel free to come play HU SNGs where 99% of you get destroyed because of a poor understanding of shallower stacks (except Ben/Ike in 5ks yo! but even that is deeper). Obv not saying the structure is the best suited one, but it is much more suited to someone like me than it is to someone like you, unfort. for most deep-cash hu guys

unres'd np, I'll wait til all of this settles down before bringing anybody else into reservations but !@_($ this thread got out of hand from what I consider to be a pretty _!@(I4ing baseless argument. Like if you guys (not you Cohiba) are arguing I only win 52% vs this field in this structure then I think your pretty clueless

+1

I completely understand the argument for being able to "short" packages in the marketplace, and although I think the current marketplace is too broken for that to be easily implemented, there is a time and a place for it, but that is not here.

As for the Lock poker thing, its really not the appropriate place for that either.

I don't know if all the hate bryan is getting is personal but for everyone who believes you can't have a 25% roi in this, please contact me so I can bet on people at this price against you.

You're making a huge assumption that I only know how to play Hu deep cash, when in fact I am very very good at 6mNL all stack sizes (my best game, actually), Hu shallow, Hu deep, tournaments, etc.

then you should realize how you basically sold yourself to have like a 51% winrate... how can you say your amazing at HU shallow and HU deep and then sell at the point where you need to barely be a winner vs the field

Horrible analogy moron. Ppl sell at 1.25 and higher all the time for big buyin events. It's not unreasonable to think a HU specialist could offer value at 1.25 in this event. I have no idea how good primordial is and I'm not interested in investing but there have to be far more egregious marketplace threads than this one.

Do either of you even know what a ****ing analogy is? Here is some help.

Just because you believe there is ****tier packages on the marketplace doesn't matter at all to my analogy.

Straight from the mouth of the literal GOAT in this format/structure

ty DAT MOOSE, not sure why everyone got so crazy about it, would have been nice for someone to do out the math before I woke up rather than 2+ pages of hate, but whatever that said I hope the thread can just settle down at this point and end the conversation

QUOTED FOR INSANITY. Primo, Hundreye: having a 26% ROI doesn't let you sell at 1.25 THAT ISN'T HOW MATH WORKS. Selling at 1.25 means you need to have approximately a 45-60% ROI. Assume you have a 26% ROI and sell at 1.25 that means you're effectively entering a staking deal where you keep 96% of profits and the backer keeps 4% of profits. Now extrapolate the variance(real mathematical definition of the word) to show the premium you're paying in a tournament for the smallest edge imaginable. Risk of Ruin would be over 99.99% for anyone even with a reasonably VERY large bankroll. having 100 buyins for this tournament where I buy at 1.25 for your 26% ROI I would guesstimate has me going broke 499/500 times. Lot more I could say but what's the point of talking to the void. Everyone either already does understand or never can understand, and that is completely separate from what's actually going on here. I have nothing against people doing their thing and selling at whatever they want, I just don't like the pseudoscience used to back it up. Just be honest and it's fine. Say you're selling at something and if they want it take it and if they don't don't. But to try and mathematically justify something rationally unjustifiable is an outrage.

Great another hero in here!

Scott, I don't believe I have a 26% ROI, if I did I would not sell at this. As to your RoR/Variance point, you sell highrollers at 1.25-1.3 and a 100k sold at 1.1, I would say the same goes for your packages sir. You also sold a package where 2 of the 6 events were 10k/5k HU events that draw MUCH tougher fields than the 10k WSOP HU which has a fair number of fish come out to play it at 1.35.

Not going to debate whether or not you think you are worth that or not, but I would go to say in your highrollers where your selling at 1.3 your probably in the exact same boat as the one your criticizing above. Also though, again I will state if I thought I had a 26% ROI I would not be selling for 1.25 : 1, your making a pretty big assumption that it's being beaten by 1%.

Did I go through and do all the math before posting this thread? No, I posted based on what I thought (looking at what others have sold at and my relative skill) I was worth and what I had sold at easily for the past few years. I posted it, people decided it was worth it, it sold out (yay). Now everyone tilted, I did the math, and it makes me even more confident that what I sold at was justified. Also please don't ever call Hundreye into question again.

But yes SCOTT, I am aware of what achievable winrates are in this format, and I am confident in what I posted. As an it takes a 54% winrate to be 32.77% ROI and a 55% winrate to be 44.5% ROI.

We routinely play games that give us just a couple % ROI and require time investment. Why would we need a higher return to invest in something that takes no time. Not saying the split should be 96/4, but is that crazy to see investors taking small edges?

Risk of ruin doesn't really matter when it's a one off thing that is barely a % of the investor's daily BIs.

lol great comparison

Like I said, I have barely the slightest of qualms with the package. I just took umbrage to the statement about looking to book action and all that because charging MU of X is NOT equal to having an expected ROI of X or even X+epsilon. Also, if you care enough (which you probably don't nor should you really) just print out the list of people that played this tournament last year and mark next to each one what you think their ROI was in that field and then see how close or far away those numbers sum to -6%.

Also there's no chance to have 55% edge in anything past the first 2 rounds on expectation basically. Especially when you compound the fact that if you have 60% to get through round 1 players equal to you do and players better have 63+% And you'll all square off against each other sooner rather than later.

The gamble isn't the problem with the marketplace. People can buy all the + = or - EV things they want IMO (others disagree with that) I just don't like false advertising. Just say hey I'm selling at this MU if you want it take it if you don't don't. Or someone can say how they're offering people the opportunity to gamble, there's nothing wrong with letting people Degen it up. I just don't like the people that try to sell wolf tickets.

I don't know what I have to do with this, people just made clear they were willing to bet against bryan at this price with such confidence that I figure they'd be willing to lay it against people i think can beat this ROI.

But since you included me, as long as this is a +ev investment and bryan doesn't knowingly misrepresent any facts it's silly for people to imply it's even remotely scummy just because it might not be the most financially responsible decision investors can make. Edit(didn't see your last post yet): apparently you agree with this, Bryan just made this thread and snap sold out, afterwards people starting implying it was a scam or whatever, so you can't blame him for explaining how it isn't, he isn't trying to trick people into buying or anything.

Stealthmunk is the boss, shame he gets banned for doing the right thing. Primordial, read Mastr's posts he's right, anyone investing in you for this tournament is making a poor decision, I for one would not feel comfortable selling action to people knowing they are losing money on their investment, unless your accepting payment in lock money.

this is the issue with respect people making posts when they aren't entirely thought out.

Scott's post assumes I am 26% ROI and selling at 25%, something I obviously stated I would not do. You apparently read that and assume I AM 26% ROI and selling at 25% when Scott was just using #s, and now assume I am scamming evrybody.

I posted all the #s already and their associated ROIs, what do you think qualifies you to tell me I'm not +EV in this field more than myself or the people who know me well + are buying of me? Tell me why you think I'm -EV with some reasoning besides just spouting off expecting people to believe it as truth

I guess im gunna step into this....

Doesnt the marketplace get regulated by packages selling or not selling? If the market thinks a package is selling too high, they dont invest. If its selling insanely low, it snap sells out. Some people will think this package is good value, some will think it is not, some wont give a crap and will buy some action just to get a sweat from a well known player regardless of markup.

To call Primo selling at any markup a scam is way off base. Even if at given MU the player is BE, there will still be a market for players willing to gamble for a sweat. I hardly think this is "taking advantage" of investors. People gamble all the time knowing the edge is against them, and there are certainly investors in here that fit that mold.

Not that this is the case here, but I dont see how any well known player upping his markup a bit to get value from their popularity is any different than a celebrity charging more to make appearances after getting a ton of exposure. In the poker world example, Antonio Esfandiari began charging much more to make appearances after his one drop win due to his increased popularity. I dont see anything wrong with that or how that is any different.

I also dont see any reason to justify the math for winrates, roi, etc, when clearly enough people wanted to buy this package at the given markup for it to sell out in 1 hour.... The market spoke.....