Quote:
Originally Posted by dlr413
also, re: ppl freerolling. is there significant tangible evidence that ppl play worse when they sell 70% @ 1.3 and get freerolls? Is this just judged on state of mind or desire to gamble? while i obv think players should always want to keep as much of themselves as they can afford, if a sicko mtt player whos busto (shocker!!!) tries to freeroll 30% and give himself and investors BR boosts is that such a bad thing? youd have to think the incentive to win is pretty strong considering you have to resolve to freerolling
A package can be a good investment even if a player only has a small percentage of himself. In fact, it would behoove some players to take much, much smaller pieces of themselves than they think they should. A good example of this is the main event, where depending on your net worth, income level, and whether or not you list yourself as a poker pro on your taxes, you could actually lose money by taking too large of a piece of yourself even if your expected ROI is 50% or greater after factoring in the true costs of playing the event (rake, marginal tax rates, variance/risk).
One problem with investing in someone who has such a small a small equity share is they have less incentive to play correctly when cEV and $EV diverge (Carlos Mortensen theorem). In a tournament where media exposure could prove lucrative (especially in the event of a win) there's even less incentive to adhere to ICM.
Also, a player who is completely freerolling has an infinite ROI even if they are a losing player, so they may have less incentive to play correctly when they get short stacked early on or whatever.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zachvac
Like theoretically if a package is a good buy every dollar investors spend is less ev for the horse.
Not necessarily.
As far as the 10K HU thing goes, I think the biggest issue is a misunderstanding and misapplication of markup. The Redgrape guy who got reamed for selling to the HU at 1.25 even said he had no idea what markup to charge and he was just copying Primordial's markup figure. Since quantifying an edge is so hard - especially in live tournaments where results and expectation will never converge - we have to rely on maximum likelihood estimations. Sometimes people are going to be way off base.
Last edited by CBorders; 05-22-2013 at 03:20 PM.