WSOP Circuit in NOLA, $400 Event #2, flight B - 4 flights play down to approx. 5% or 15 players for Sunday final day. Everyone on Sunday is in the money. We are down to about 21-22 in my flight.

H: Good image and chipping up with good hands. Picking good spots in position. Top 5 in chips ~300K
V: MAWL. Super duper tight. Played with her at another table before it broke and redrew to this table. Saw her only play AA once against my AK (rigged). She covers me by about 50K

Blinds at 500/4000/8000.

H: UTG +1 raises to 18K with QsQc. All fold to V who flats in CO. All fold. HU to flop

Flop (52K) 10s6c4c

H bets 18K, V raises to 40K. I think and call

Turn: (88K) 5s

H checks, V insta bets 60K.....Hero?

Can she really have 1010 here without 3! pre? Is she spazzing with Ac10C? Did she trap me with AA, KK. I guess she could have all the sets of 4's and 6's in her range too? I want to call and re-evaluate on the river.

Thoughts?

you obviously have an overpair and this is never a bluff

Depends on how confident we are in the "super duper tight" label, but if the level of confidence is high then I guess we muck.

EDIT: If this helps, villain as described is never ever ever 3betting TT CO vs UTG+1

I don't disagree with this and previous post that it's never bluff

So she bets 60k....and I tank fold. She shows 66

yeah really good fold

So all you need to do is only play AA and hit sets and you can pop the bubble in one of these things? I gotta try that.

Don't forget to play your sets in super obvious ways that prevent you from stacking overpairs!

Easy game!

Questions:

1) Is the pre-flop raise size of 18K good? Will 22K make any difference to 66 in CO?
2) Is a c/r action better after the flop with over pair vs c/f on the turn?
3) If not then will 25-30K after the flop make better bet? If she still raises on that then its easy fold for you right there. Putting 7K initially is better vs putting in another 22K calling a raise.
4) Raise by her there is either shouting a set or over-pair - you lose in both cases and if you are taking c/f in considering while calling a raise on flop, then you should actually fold right there instead of continuing. She won't re-raise with ATcc considering how you have defined her.

With all these - you get much better FE or understanding of her holdings.

Thoughts?

If V is really a MAWL and her play as nitty as you defined it, I guess we have to fold turn. Obvsly not gto but purely based on exploitation. Sick hidden brag tho OP

1) Based on this table and actually most of the day, open raises have been between 2-2.5x. My table in particular have been around 2.2x
2) C/r flop action seems like such a nutted hand esp. with my UTG +1 open. I think I would want to keep my opponents entire range in with my over pair if I checked the flop. But with a semi wet board, I want to charge any pp or flush draws and checking the flop seems counter-intuitive
3) This point is def results oriented because she doesn't have to have a better hand than me. What if she had 77-99 or fd and I blow her off her hand?
4) My poker mantra....."It's hard to make a pair"....I'm a fish?

Trust me, it hurt to fold.

Lol on the brag....

If you label her as completely nitty, fold flop after her raise... After her raise the only hand she can have to which you are not almost dead is AcKc

+1

Yes, in hind sight, the only hands that I am beating are AKcc, AJcc and JJ. It's def a fold otf after her raise.

board: Ts6c4c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
QcQs 30.93% 8,879 0
AcKc,AA,KK,AcJc,JJ,TT,66,44 69.07% 19,831 0

500*9+4000+8000+18000+18000+18000+18000+22000 = 110500.

22000/132500 = 16.66%

Please don't fold flop.