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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 09-03-2020, 10:55 AM   #1
PhatPots
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WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

WSOP $100 on GG Poker, multiple Day 1s. If we bust not the end of the world. There are a bigger amount of players doing random things. (Eg. players who never fold, people playing VPIP with 50%, etc.)

Newish to the table late in day 1. Both villains are running at 25% VPIP preflop (we are 8 handed)

Villain 1 78 BB
Villain 2 25BB
Hero 58BB

Preflop: Hero has 84 in the BB
Villain 1 raises to 2BB in MP, Button Calls, SB folds, hero calls

Flop: Q 7 6
Hero checks, Villain 1 checks, Villain 2 checks

Turn: 5
Hero checks, Villain 1 bets 2.2BB, Villain 2 folds, Hero raises to 10.5BB, Villain calls

River: 3
Hero?

What do you think is the best on the river? Bet/fold, check/call, bet/call

I feel like if we check and the villain checks it back, we've missed too much value. If we bet and get raised, it's kind of a sucky spot, but will this player call a pot sized raise on the turn with a flush draw?
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Old 09-03-2020, 11:16 AM   #2
Bubblebust
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

I'm pretty loose to call 1 bb from the BB at 58 bbs, but tighten up some vs 2 opponents despite the better pot odds because its harder to realize equity. 84o wouldn't be in my calling range, but not the end of the world.

Would do the same flop and turn. River I would x/c once flush gets there still having almost 50 bbs, as I personally do trade some value for reduced variance. But considering we're good firing more bullets, bet is fine if we're prepared to call it off. Not sure I can get on board with b/f, especially vs reg who realizes river is great bluff card.
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Old 09-03-2020, 04:16 PM   #3
lolposting2016
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

Ez jam what’s the problem here
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Old 09-03-2020, 05:02 PM   #4
maletaja81
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

bet/fold u will get best value
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Old 09-03-2020, 05:18 PM   #5
Bubblebust
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

Quote:
bet/fold u will get best value
Don't you think it's hard for H to rep flush here after turn raise?

EDIT: And I should mention that V can very convincingly sell the flush give his turn call.

Last edited by Bubblebust; 09-03-2020 at 05:31 PM.
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Old 09-03-2020, 05:54 PM   #6
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

Wondering why we checked turn? This should always be a lead in a HU pot, but not sure 3-way (really haven't looked at multiway spots.)

Assuming villain can't have 98o/98s with the exception of 98cc which should be discounted.

Hero should have ~1.6 pot left OTR, so can't overshove non-frushes for value. When we have the frush blocker, we need to be betting our 98/84 combos most of the time. Question is how much...I kinda like between 35-55%. Any bigger than 45% we can't get bruff-raised.

Bruffcatchers like: 55; 87s; 86s; 75s; 65s QT; Q9; 88 should call both the small (35%) sizing and bigger (55%) at a high freq, so unless smaller sizing will induce* 55% works best.

*vs. a GTO strat both sizings should get raised at roughly same freq.

Last edited by erc007; 09-03-2020 at 05:57 PM. Reason: Oh yah...and fold pre...no need to defend bottom 15% combos
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Old 09-04-2020, 05:50 AM   #7
maletaja81
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubblebust View Post
Don't you think it's hard for H to rep flush here after turn raise?

EDIT: And I should mention that V can very convincingly sell the flush give his turn call.

Rep flush, u mean we are runned over by rep flushes?
Its certanly out of line
Also we can myself had flush.


Villain could have lots of Q,sets whatever showdown value hands

We missing lots of value if we check and we also have hidden hand
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Old 09-04-2020, 02:57 PM   #8
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

Jamming for value / balance.
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Old 09-04-2020, 03:47 PM   #9
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhatPots View Post
...
What do you think is the best on the river? Bet/fold, check/call, bet/call

I feel like if we check and the villain checks it back, we've missed too much value. If we bet and get raised, it's kind of a sucky spot, but will this player call a pot sized raise on the turn with a flush draw?
I'll answer the last question first. There are a lot of flush draws V1 would call the turn with: Any AX,8X,9X,7:clu b:X and SC's like JT etc. I don't think V1 has Q though because of the check on the flop. Unless V1 was going for a c/r which would be ridiculous.

As to the first question as much as I hate it I would bet/fold. With the flush card on the river I doubt V1 would raise the river without a flush or 98. And I don't think V1 has 98 or he would have re-raised on the turn or if he didn't he wanted to see what the river would bring (and it brought disaster). Check/call means it will go check/check a lot. And when V1 bets we are probably beat a lot of the time.
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Old 09-04-2020, 08:26 PM   #10
lolposting2016
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by erc007 View Post
Wondering why we checked turn? This should always be a lead in a HU pot, but not sure 3-way (really haven't looked at multiway spots.)

Assuming villain can't have 98o/98s with the exception of 98cc which should be discounted.

Hero should have ~1.6 pot left OTR, so can't overshove non-frushes for value. When we have the frush blocker, we need to be betting our 98/84 combos most of the time. Question is how much...I kinda like between 35-55%. Any bigger than 45% we can't get bruff-raised.

Bruffcatchers like: 55; 87s; 86s; 75s; 65s QT; Q9; 88 should call both the small (35%) sizing and bigger (55%) at a high freq, so unless smaller sizing will induce* 55% works best.

*vs. a GTO strat both sizings should get raised at roughly same freq.

The straight can definitely make it into the overbet size for 1.6 pot
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Old 09-04-2020, 08:37 PM   #11
PEEhole_Solver
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

Goddamn pre is so ****ing bad were u high OR drunk or just drunk?
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Old 09-04-2020, 08:45 PM   #12
erc007
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

lol...dude...you're usually right (or very close to it)...but if you're a GTO guy you're not shipping 98/84 with a blocker...run it if you don't believe me (and make sure you give 3 sizings OTR.)
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Old 09-05-2020, 02:40 AM   #13
lolposting2016
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

I’ll take a look looking at it again this is kind of a tricky spot to play well I feel like the turn strat and river strat might be interesting
U probably right though tbh

Last edited by lolposting2016; 09-05-2020 at 02:44 AM. Reason: .
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Old 09-05-2020, 02:49 AM   #14
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Re: WSOP $100 Turned straight, River decision

yah...deleted me sim but IIRC Pio liked the bigger sizing with the 8c blocker, so maybe vs some stations you could get away with explo-shipping river when you have the 8c
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