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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 05-11-2017, 09:02 AM   #1
Crazy Joe Davola
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Diamond WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

He has over $4 million in career earnings according to Hendon Mob and nearly half a million in 2017.

He was moved to my table about an hour before this hand came up. He had been pretty tight but doubled up twice (once with QQ v. TT and I don't remember the other hand, but I'm pretty sure he got it in good that time as well). I have a lot of respect for his play. We had played at the same table once before, in a Parx 1200 nearly two and a half years prior, but I doubt he remembers.

Anyway, this happened at the Maryland Live WPTDS Main Event a few weeks ago. It was a $1500 buy in. He had about 90k to start the hand and I had roughly 250k.

Blinds were 800/1600/a200. We are 7 handed at the moment and he is second to act. He raises to 3600. The cutoff and button call. I'm in the small blind with 88 and I call. 4 way flop of J-T-2 rainbow. Checks around.

Turn is a 3 and completes the rainbow. I bet 8k and he raises to 21k. Cutoff and button fold and now it's on me.

We hadn't played a pot before this one. He likely views me as competent but inexperienced. Not sure though.

Your thoughts?
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Old 05-11-2017, 12:25 PM   #2
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Why are you betting turn? Not getting called by much worse.
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Old 05-11-2017, 12:53 PM   #3
Crazy Joe Davola
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Because it seems like I have the best hand and I want to win the pot
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Old 05-11-2017, 03:10 PM   #4
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

check turn, as played fold now.
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Old 05-11-2017, 03:47 PM   #5
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazy Joe Davola View Post
Because it seems like I have the best hand and I want to win the pot
So you think 88 is favored vs 3 villains on a JT23r OOP?

Rather optimistic and not to mention you are going to have to check a lot of rivers and play a guessing game
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Old 05-11-2017, 05:31 PM   #6
Crazy Joe Davola
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

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Originally Posted by onehandatatime View Post
check turn, as played fold now.
Why fold? What kind of range are you putting him on?
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Old 05-11-2017, 07:46 PM   #7
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

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Originally Posted by Crazy Joe Davola View Post
Why fold? What kind of range are you putting him on?
Most of the time he probably has exactly 33, because this is an uncommon raise spot. Maybe he is getting weird with AQ/AK or turned a gutter with a small suited ace. Regardless, you're betting into three players at your first real opportunity to do out of the small blind, so you have at least six combos of sets (if you're older maybe also TT/JJ) and plenty of JT two pair combos. You have plenty of hands to defend against his raise and not be exploited, if you somehow feel he is getting out of line. If you're defending 88 you're basically defending nearly every combo you bet out here.

Easy spot to just fold and move on. Again, if somehow villian is getting so out of line in a four-way pot when you have plenty of nutted hands, he is going to lose in the long run versus your range.
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Old 05-11-2017, 09:06 PM   #8
Crazy Joe Davola
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Not a good idea to fold if he's repping only one hand (set of Treys) that beats us.
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Old 05-11-2017, 09:12 PM   #9
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

he can have every set. i'd never bet the turn
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Old 05-12-2017, 10:43 AM   #10
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Quite frankly, betting turn is awful. We have opponents who will very easily have a J or T there that checked flop. With third pair on that board our goal is to get to the cheapest showdown possible. Even if you don't get raised it's almost impossible to see scenarios where you're going to getting value from worse. We can check-call here and look to call some rivers to pick off bluffs.

I think in a live scenario I fold because we have, as noted, better hands to defend with than 88. But calling turn has some merit.

If we assume our opponent is going to be betting some of their stronger hands (JT, 22) and good draws on the flop, the raise on the river is somewhat polarized to exactly 33, JJ, TT and some draws. Our opponent will have a little more than pot behind on the river, so I could see a scenario where we call turn and then check-call river on non-A/K/Q boards. Of course, if our opponent is checking their entire range on the flop OOP hoping to get one of their opponents to fire, then we're screwed.
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Old 05-12-2017, 01:49 PM   #11
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Betting turn is pretty bad
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Old 05-12-2017, 03:42 PM   #12
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

A turn bet seems ambitious into three players in that spot. If I'm betting from your position, it is to fold out air that has equity against me, which here consists of overcards and KQ or perhaps 98 suited -- and if that's my plan, I'm likely to bet less. Also, there are a ton of Jx and Tx and sets in everyone's range and none of that is likely to fold. Villain's range is stronger than yours IMO -- he has overpairs and JJ and TT and JT in it, but you don't have all of that. It's a reasonable spot for him to raise with a polarized range. As played, I'm dumping this.
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Old 05-12-2017, 05:25 PM   #13
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

I mean, just fold. We 1) have a marginal hand, 2) out of position, 3) against a strong villain. I don't see any EV in calling and check-soulreading river, or kamikaze 3betting.

Maybe he checked flop b/c he had a read that button always stabs at flops if checked to.

I would like betting more if it was J732, or if we were button and it checked through twice. Here, too likely that someone has like AT and just is gonna click call.
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Old 05-15-2017, 06:58 AM   #14
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Don't bet the turn. If you for some reason do that, fold now.
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:06 AM   #15
Crazy Joe Davola
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Why fold? What hands does PFR a) check flop with when he has two opponents behind him and b) raise turn?
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:15 AM   #16
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WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

33 22 JJ TT JT QQ KQ Q9s 98s (blocked). In other words, a polar range that has both monsters and bluffs in it. You lose in this spot in the long run if he is reasonably balanced.

You fold because you're out of position with a hand that has some showdown value and that wants to get to the river cheaply, but isn't going to here, and because you almost never improve. When you do improve, you turn some of his bluffs into straights that beat you.
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:19 AM   #17
Crazy Joe Davola
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

You really think a guy who isn't a fishcake is going to check when he flops a set or top two?
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:23 AM   #18
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Often yes. What's he shooting to get value from?
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:51 AM   #19
Crazy Joe Davola
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Middle and bottom set would be trying to get value from top pair and straight draws, top set from straight draws, etc.
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:03 PM   #20
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Villain's line is also of course consistent with an attempted check-raise on the flop that checked around instead. If it were me, I'd check-fold in your spot.
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:21 PM   #21
Crazy Joe Davola
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Why would he attempt a c/r when he was the PFR? That's a bizarre way for a solid pro to play a hand.
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:25 PM   #22
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

So what do you put him on when he takes this line? If he's so solid, and sees you as solid, why is he taking a line that, in your opinion, represents nothing?
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:30 PM   #23
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

If I'm PFR, I'm often leading with monsters. But against opponents who are not capable of checking back twice or thrice, I'm definitely checking some of them. You strike me as that kind of guy, not a molecule of insult intended.
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:34 PM   #24
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

Right. As I posted earlier, maybe he had a read that the button was overly ambitious on multiway flops that check to him?
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:38 PM   #25
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Re: WPTDS hand vs. a well known pro

CJD, do you have a bet-fold range in this spot? If so, what is it?
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