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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 04-06-2019, 08:54 AM   #26
JoeC2012
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Re: WPT LA Classic and Bike Quantum Millions Hands

Also do you think the limpers are doing so in a relatively balanced way?

I will be the first to admit I'm not terribly confident in my answer to this one. Like, in a $1k at Bay 101 you can just abuse the **** out of these people, but it might be different in a WPT in LA which I believe is a $10k.
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Old 04-06-2019, 05:58 PM   #27
EggsMcBluffin
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Re: WPT LA Classic and Bike Quantum Millions Hands

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Originally Posted by JoeC2012 View Post
Also do you think the limpers are doing so in a relatively balanced way?

I will be the first to admit I'm not terribly confident in my answer to this one. Like, in a $1k at Bay 101 you can just abuse the **** out of these people, but it might be different in a WPT in LA which I believe is a $10k.

I expect him to understand there's an equilibrium solution and it's not anywhere near close to ATC.

I expect him to understand that once limpers enter the pot, the entire dynamic of the pot has changed. He can surely have a limp-behind range too because the limpers have opened the door to that possibility.

So I expect him to have approximately anywhere from {77+, A8s+, A5s, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T9s, 98s, KJo+, KQo} to {88+, ATs+, A5s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs+, T9s, AQo+, KQo}. He's probably closer to an UTG open range than anything else. Remember he's OTB, he's almost always getting to the flop with all hands that desire to limp behind and see a cheap flop, he has no incentive to raise those weaker hands over limping behind with them,

I don't know about balanced, but the limpers are clearly uncapped.
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Old 04-06-2019, 07:09 PM   #28
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Re: WPT LA Classic and Bike Quantum Millions Hands

Live rec limpers in a 1K are at the very least set mining or sc-mining and are most certainly uncapped.

The better players will have a limp call range v a single raiser that includes hands as strong as AK, provided AK call closes the action. So if hero doesn’t jam QJ, then UTG is less likely to have AK than UTG1 in this hand.

UTG1 limp range and strategy is virtually identical to UTG with the exception mentioned above.

I remember a recent mid late stages hand where I limped UTG1 with AK against a trappy UTG holding JJ and it worked out very nicely when UTG started to feel entitled on a A63A7 runout

It is far safer for pros to assume that EP rec live players in a $1k are limping with a defined balanced strategy. The old days of recs ‘seeing a flop cheap’ are mostly gone unless you’re playing for pennies in a $100 BI.
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Old 04-06-2019, 08:23 PM   #29
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Re: WPT LA Classic and Bike Quantum Millions Hands

Sry correction: So if hero doesn’t jam QJ, then UTG is less likely to flat AK than UTG1 in this hand.
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Old 04-12-2019, 03:26 AM   #30
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Re: WPT LA Classic and Bike Quantum Millions Hands

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Originally Posted by thereitis View Post
Hand 2: It helps to know what BB stack is. Very big difference if BB has 15bb, 30bb, 100bb in terms of the chance BB will call off when you re-shove. I'm just assuming BB has 50bb stack

Let's Start With Open Shove:
* You need to make some assumptions for BB calling range. If BB calls with top 5% of hands, A5o has 28% equity.
* If you open shove and he folds, you win the dead money which is 2.5bb. This happens 95% of the time.
* If you open shove, get called and lose, you lose 20BB. This happens 5% * (1-28%)
* If you open shove, get called and win, you win 22BB ( 2.5BB + 19.5BB ) . This happens 5% * 28%
* I plugged in those % and open shoving wins about 2BB on average for a 10% ROI.
* 10% ROI seems pretty reasonable and you're only risking your stack 5% of the time.

Limp Shove:
* I assume BB still calls off with top 5% of hands. But the big question is what hands does he raise your limp with and how often does he raise fold?
* I'm just going to pretend he raises with 15% of hands and calls off with 5% of hands so he is calling 1/3 of the time.
* These numbers are rough, but if BB raise folds, you win 6bb and this happens 2/3 of the time. = 4BB
* If he calls your shove, you win 22bb and this happens 33% * 28% = 2BB
* If he calls and you lose, you lose 20bb and this happens 33% * ( 1 - 28% ) = -4.75
* The weighted average is close to 1.25BB.
* If you assume BB only calls 20% of the time, then your weighted average goes up to 3BB.
* So the profitability of your play depends a lot on what % of the time you think villain is going to fold to your shove.

GL
you missed out on the equity of the 85% he checks back... good luck calculating that. I think your percentages are way off as well... 5% is like TT+ AQ+ right??? people really fold aj and 99 to 20bb shove BvB???? seen people call as low as a7s kjs and 66 to open rip which is probably nash equilibrium if hero shoves what he should. no way he only raises 15% in this spot too.

just looked at push fold chart... 15BB is 64% shove from SB with antes so I imagine at 20BB its like 55% so BB defend is prob like 30ish%

Last edited by smoothcriminal99; 04-12-2019 at 03:31 AM.
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Old 04-13-2019, 03:40 AM   #31
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Re: WPT LA Classic and Bike Quantum Millions Hands

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Originally Posted by smoothcriminal99 View Post
Hand 1 I think they got to fold like 30-40% for it to be break even without icm considerations so you probably want 50ish%. In my experience people actually fold more in that spot especially if you have a tight image. Id imagine first limper calls like 10% if I didnt read summary Id say 2nd limper like never calls and isoer only calls 20-30%. Hand selection wise I think its pretty good for card removal and equity vs jj/ak+ which is probably their calling ranges.

Hand 2 I dont know enough about the player but when he sizes that large Id probably shift from my original plan of c/shove to c/fold. Just a live thing when people size bigger in spots like that their range is usually narrower and stronger then what it should be. Obviously from an unexploitable strategy wouldnt take that line but I deviate pretty far and in live games you should if your maximizing your edge playing vs people with very unbalanced strategies.

Edit:I just read his description in another post. Id limp/shove vs a guy whos active even with the larger sizing
Thanks for the response, was interested in your thoughts and respect your opinion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thereitis View Post
Hand 1: It's a massive punt most likely, but you left out a lot of info. Keep in mind the following. If you think Ali is strong, like he might have AQ+, then he also probably has hands like TT+. Your equity is complete garbage against a strong rage. It's like 25% equity against a strong range like TT+,AQ+. But even against a weak range like top 20% of hands, you only win 39% of the time. You are risking way too many chips in this spot.

When I'm in a hand I pay attention to the following details that you left out.
* What position did Ali raise from? This is important because it affects what hands he could be raising with. On the button it could be pretty wide. In LJ, he's probably raising decently strong hands.
* What are opponent stack sizes? If you're shoving 20bb, it really matters what the two limper and Ali's stack sizes are. This affects how likely they will call you down. The bigger their stacks are the more comfortably they can call your shove with strong hands.
* Of course I don't do all the math in game. But I'm just trying to guess what is my fold equity roughly and what is my equity when called. If I'm in a spot where I think opponents are folding 40% of the time and when called I win 30% of the time, chances are pretty good that my play is going to be +EV.
* In this spot once Ali raises 9k, with all the dead money, your fold equity gets close to 0%. This is why the math looks really bad for this play.

Here are really rough EV calculations to help you understand this spot.
* Dead money: 1k+2k+2k+2k+2k+9k = 18k. If everybody folds to your shove, you win 18k.
* If you shove and get called by Ali and you win, you win: 47k. 18k dead money + 38k your stack - 9k ali already put in.
* If you shove and get called by Ali and you lose, you lose: 38k
* If I'm super generous, I'm giving you a 10% chance that your shove goes through. This should never happen because Ali is probably committed and you have two early position limpers you also need to get through.
* Let's pretend Ali is calling you with a top 20% hand. Once again, probably generous. His position at the table greatly affects my assumptions for his raising range. You have 39% equity against this range. http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...0%25&s=generic

EV calculation
* Everybody folds 10% of the time and you win 18k = 1.8k
* You get called by Ali and you win. 90% * 39% * 47k = 16.5k
* You get called by Ali and you lose. 90% * (1-39%) * -38k = -20.9k
* You add up the EVs and you get -2.6k.
* If you change assumption to Ali folds 0% of the time, you lose -5k everytime you make this play.
* This doesn't even include the fact that if one of the 2 limpers actually has a big hand, the EV is way worse because you're against a stronger range.

When you want to evaluate the quality of a play in tournaments, you want to pick spots where your ROI might be something like at least 10% but probably more when you are risking your whole stack. You will find many spots if you start thinking this way where your ROI is 20% or higher. These are the spots you want to find.

So avoid neutral EV and marginal EV spots for all your chips. That's about the worst play you can make in tournament poker.

I'll post another response for Hand 2.
Wow, I appreciate the time and effort in both your analyses.

I wasn't very clear in the OP, but Ali was UTG +2 (or 3, it's been awhile now). First two players limped, then he raised it up.

One reason I shoved that wasn't mentioned in the OP was that I think I had a very tight image. I played with Ali for several hours on Day 1 and played tight. When I did play a hand that went to showdown, I always had it. He actually said at one point 'So you just always have it, huh?' That factored into my decision, but consensus def seems to be that it was a punt. I tend to agree in retrospect.

Hadn't checked this thread in awhile, but thanks to everyone who gave their perspective, it really helps.

BOL to everyone headed to the WSOP
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Old Yesterday, 03:47 PM   #32
Mr Rick
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Re: WPT LA Classic and Bike Quantum Millions Hands

Hand 1 depends on a few things:
1) UTG limper has done this a number of times. Has the lady limped behind a number of times or is she tight?
2) Size of Ali's stack. If Ali has more than 4x your stack he isn't folding almost anything. And you still have to worry if he has 2x to 4x because he will be getting a decent price to continue.

Personally I would let it go 100% of the time. Though I can see it from the lets get it in on the non-skill section of the game vs a super tough table...

Hand 2: This is a jam or a l/c for me. Again it matters how big a stack BB has. Given a huge stack getting 3:2 on the bet he is likely to call regardless of his cards. If he has between 2x and 3x your stack I think its a call for most BB hands but there is hope for a fold. Less than 2x you fold out all his bluffs.

But I don't think its worth it. By raising to 4bb it looks like BB has 66-JJ/AK maybe AQ. Hands that don't play particularly well postflop when unimproved (and overs appear with PP) and opponent calls the flop cbet OOP. It could just be that in SB vs BB spots villain likes to bet big with all his hands but I am always suspicious of 4x+ raises in position.
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