Hand 1: It's a massive punt most likely, but you left out a lot of info. Keep in mind the following. If you think Ali is strong, like he might have AQ+, then he also probably has hands like TT+. Your equity is complete garbage against a strong rage. It's like 25% equity against a strong range like TT+,AQ+. But even against a weak range like top 20% of hands, you only win 39% of the time. You are risking way too many chips in this spot.
When I'm in a hand I pay attention to the following details that you left out.
* What position did Ali raise from? This is important because it affects what hands he could be raising with. On the button it could be pretty wide. In LJ, he's probably raising decently strong hands.
* What are opponent stack sizes? If you're shoving 20bb, it really matters what the two limper and Ali's stack sizes are. This affects how likely they will call you down. The bigger their stacks are the more comfortably they can call your shove with strong hands.
* Of course I don't do all the math in game. But I'm just trying to guess what is my fold equity roughly and what is my equity when called. If I'm in a spot where I think opponents are folding 40% of the time and when called I win 30% of the time, chances are pretty good that my play is going to be +EV.
* In this spot once Ali raises 9k, with all the dead money, your fold equity gets close to 0%. This is why the math looks really bad for this play.
Here are really rough EV calculations to help you understand this spot.
* Dead money: 1k+2k+2k+2k+2k+9k = 18k. If everybody folds to your shove, you win 18k.
* If you shove and get called by Ali and you win, you win: 47k. 18k dead money + 38k your stack - 9k ali already put in.
* If you shove and get called by Ali and you lose, you lose: 38k
* If I'm super generous, I'm giving you a 10% chance that your shove goes through. This should never happen because Ali is probably committed and you have two early position limpers you also need to get through.
* Let's pretend Ali is calling you with a top 20% hand. Once again, probably generous. His position at the table greatly affects my assumptions for his raising range. You have 39% equity against this range.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...0%25&s=generic
EV calculation
* Everybody folds 10% of the time and you win 18k = 1.8k
* You get called by Ali and you win. 90% * 39% * 47k = 16.5k
* You get called by Ali and you lose. 90% * (1-39%) * -38k = -20.9k
* You add up the EVs and you get -2.6k.
* If you change assumption to Ali folds 0% of the time, you lose -5k everytime you make this play.
* This doesn't even include the fact that if one of the 2 limpers actually has a big hand, the EV is way worse because you're against a stronger range.
When you want to evaluate the quality of a play in tournaments, you want to pick spots where your ROI might be something like at least 10% but probably more when you are risking your whole stack. You will find many spots if you start thinking this way where your ROI is 20% or higher. These are the spots you want to find.
So avoid neutral EV and marginal EV spots for all your chips. That's about the worst play you can make in tournament poker.
I'll post another response for Hand 2.