Hello,

I have posted in the past, but im not a super-regular here, so if my question to some seems dumb or if there is already a thread on this/previously discussed, please dont flame me. (if there is a thread on this a link is very much appreciated, thanks in advance)


This is something that i have been thinking about quite often, and i have trouble figuring out what is best.


Example hand:

I am doing fine in a KO-tournament, i have a 50bb stack and it is the early to midfase of the tournament. Still plenty of time to go to reach the money. (200/400 lvl on PS)

An opponent shoves his 100bb stack over an open of a 25bb stack (min-bounty), and i sit on the button with QQ.

I expect versus this opponent to usually sit vs AK here. And maybe some of the time JJ. AA or KK i doubt but maybe KK sometimes.

(lets suppose this estimation by me is correct)
So i figure vs that range i should be around 60%- ish. Figuring its a profitable spot.

Well you guessed it, he has AK and i bust out.


Now in a cashgame, this is an easy get it in. We lose, we reload.

But in a tournament there is the thing called 'tournament life'.

Basically meaning that if we lose we bust, and if we fold we can live to fight another day, no need to gamble here.

For example, if we have a 100bb stack, and someone shoves into me, and i know for a fact im break even on chips when i call, i can see reasons for not calling.


So what is your perspective on spots like these? / What is the correct way of looking at these spots?


If you are + chipev, do you always go for it? or do you also consider other things?
Maybe how soft the table/field is?
What the bigger stack can do for you in the future?
Do you have a threshold? such as with a 50bb stack, only 10%+ stack increases or maybe only at 15 or 20% ?


r0eladn

It really depends on the field. If we feel the table is weak and we can outplay most players, we can let go of some +cEV spots if we don't wanna risk our tournament life on this spot, but I believe that it should occur way deeper on the tournament, especially online where if we loose we still have a lot of other tournaments to play.

But in any case as Barry Greenstein said in his book "if you want to win you have to be willing to die".

So there have been a few interesting discussion in the past on these kinds of situations.

I remember one where sb shoved 100B preflop into BB and showed the BB player that he had AK and the BB looks down and see QQ. It was a WPT $10K buy-in.
The pros and cons go something like this

Pros
1. Having a big stack early is advantageous
2. it's +EV (we want to take any +EV spot)
3. More likely to go deep with a big stack and if you bust go play cash games

Cons
1. High variance
2. Might find a better spot that is more +EV
3. Having direct position on a weaker player and a "good table draw"


Did the 25 BB stack make a 3BB open?

Other factors to consider:
For me this would come down to the size of the buy-in (for a 10K tournament, I am more likely to fold). If this is a $500 live re-entry then I am for sure jamming. If this is a bit larger freeze out tournament and there are no other options to play after I bust (no cash games that I want to play, I might fold and wait for a better spot).

thanks for the response!

the example i mentioned doesnt matter too much, it was just to give an idea.

(it was a 51bb call for 107bbs (if the opener and the blinds dont put anything in the pot) so i had 61bbs equity, which was enough for me to go for the call here.)


for me, also the fact that plenty of my tournaments end because i go from 50bbs to 15 or less, cause of 1hr+ of no cards or opportunities, that i lean more towards a call here.


its kind of like as if we have to make a mathematical expectation of how easy it is in future spots to win the same amount of big blinds without risking our entire stack.

and then we trade in 10bbs (in this spot anyways) for having a 100% chance of continuing in the tourney. which if you put it like that, doesnt really sound that great.


i think a 20% stack increase is too much to pass up.

if i would make 2 or 3 bbs here, i think i like a fold better.

with 50bb stack:
<5bbs increase --> fold.
5-8bbs --> let it depend on factors such as table.
>10bbs --> always go for.


And then the numbers above can be slightly stretched into different directions based on the buy-in size.

Also the structure is important. the faster paced the tourney is, the more we should be inclined to take these marginal spots.

(if we blind down from 50 to 30bbs only after a 100 additional hands, we can expect to get plenty of good opportunities in the future. Where as if we will go from 50 to 30bbs within 20 hands, the amount of opportunities is more rng, thus taking this spot seems better. if that makes any sense.)

i dont think giving up +ev spots for your tournament life really applies to this specific spot. you can literally narrow down their range to AK,AQ and TT-QQ. could be looser like 88-QQ and AJs AQo+ depending on the positions, which you didnt name. if you were deeper in the tournament and was facing a different spot with a +ev hand but not winning that much, you can let it go... but QQ is just way too good to ever give up in a spot. f.e 2-3 tables left, co opens on 50bbs, hj jams 15bbs and you have 50bbs and have ATs in the bb. losing 15bbs hurts your stack utility quite a bit so flipping isnt that great, you can be ahead vs axs which helps, and then theres also the risk of hj who has the same stack as you waking up with a hand. just an example off the top of my head but i hope you get my point. you should be doing your best to go for the chips, but also tighten up near f2t since icm comes into play quite a bit.

The concept is ok but you are most likely to overdo it by thinking in this way . Same as icm makes a lot of people play too tight/passive . Thinking about your tourney life too much wil make you play too tight/weak and pass up too many spots that would give you a good chance to do well in the tourney . You can't win 99% of tourneys through skill alone , you need to embrace the gamble a bit too

In MTTs survival has some value. Because at all points, even on the first hand of an MTT you are risking your tournament equity which has a different value than your chips.

This information is for all points leading up to the bubble, but may be incorrect once the bubble is reached and ITM. The bubble starts when the the number of players left is 50% greater than the number of players paid.

So in an MTT daily with 18 paid, the ICM factor starts increasing at 27 players.

Up to that point the ICM factor is relatively low, but it is present.

So how do we account for that? You should develop an edge for yourself. For instance in a simple situation of calling a bet, and you are getting 1.5:1. In a cash game your equity to call that bet would be 40%.

As was already mentioned, players have a tendency to over-estimate the "value" of tournament life and pass on profitable spots due to "tournament life." However, if you set and edge, and this hand meets that edge or exceeds it, it is worth the risk.

In an MTT, the chips your risk have more value than the chips you win. So you should never call at break-even or even with a small profit.

Set and edge for yourself on the call. If you need 40%, call off at 45% equity or greater. This way, you are automatically avoiding the "close" cEV decisions that you are supposed to avoid in MTTs.

As was mentioned, some players over estimate the value of their "tournament life" and pass on spots they should take. Once you overcome the threshold for your edge, you should call, even when you risk busting or being crippled as a result. With the edge your call should still be $EV if you ran all of the estimates correctly.

The best way to think of it is "tournament equity" instead of "tournament life." They tend to mean the same, but using the term tournament equity help you keep things in perspective. When a call increases your tournament equity you should make it. If it decreases your tournament equity, you should not. Tournament life has no mathematical measure. It is binary. You either have tournament life or you don't. Tournament equity has a mathematical value that can be measured and compared to the results of your decision tree.

thats a great reply, thanks.

Can you explain how having "a lot of other tournaments to play" comes into the decision making?

Up till that point I was agreeing with what you were saying.

I personally would not call w/QQ if I had a 50BB stack, assuming this is just your average daily low buy in ie under $150 live KO tourny because the fields are gonna be super soft and I know I can get way better spots than this.

If I'm at 20 BB's or less I'd probably shove the vast majority of the time though with QQ.

Small nit-pick but Barry didn't say that first - Amir did.

“In order to live, you must be willing to die." - Amir Vahedi