Also do you think the limpers are doing so in a relatively balanced way?

I will be the first to admit I'm not terribly confident in my answer to this one. Like, in a $1k at Bay 101 you can just abuse the **** out of these people, but it might be different in a WPT in LA which I believe is a $10k.

I expect him to understand there's an equilibrium solution and it's not anywhere near close to ATC.

I expect him to understand that once limpers enter the pot, the entire dynamic of the pot has changed. He can surely have a limp-behind range too because the limpers have opened the door to that possibility.

So I expect him to have approximately anywhere from {77+, A8s+, A5s, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T9s, 98s, KJo+, KQo} to {88+, ATs+, A5s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs+, T9s, AQo+, KQo}. He's probably closer to an UTG open range than anything else. Remember he's OTB, he's almost always getting to the flop with all hands that desire to limp behind and see a cheap flop, he has no incentive to raise those weaker hands over limping behind with them,

I don't know about balanced, but the limpers are clearly uncapped.

Live rec limpers in a 1K are at the very least set mining or sc-mining and are most certainly uncapped.

The better players will have a limp call range v a single raiser that includes hands as strong as AK, provided AK call closes the action. So if hero doesn’t jam QJ, then UTG is less likely to have AK than UTG1 in this hand.

UTG1 limp range and strategy is virtually identical to UTG with the exception mentioned above.

I remember a recent mid late stages hand where I limped UTG1 with AK against a trappy UTG holding JJ and it worked out very nicely when UTG started to feel entitled on a A63A7 runout

It is far safer for pros to assume that EP rec live players in a $1k are limping with a defined balanced strategy. The old days of recs ‘seeing a flop cheap’ are mostly gone unless you’re playing for pennies in a $100 BI.

Sry correction: So if hero doesn’t jam QJ, then UTG is less likely to flat AK than UTG1 in this hand.

you missed out on the equity of the 85% he checks back... good luck calculating that. I think your percentages are way off as well... 5% is like TT+ AQ+ right??? people really fold aj and 99 to 20bb shove BvB???? seen people call as low as a7s kjs and 66 to open rip which is probably nash equilibrium if hero shoves what he should. no way he only raises 15% in this spot too.

just looked at push fold chart... 15BB is 64% shove from SB with antes so I imagine at 20BB its like 55% so BB defend is prob like 30ish%

Thanks for the response, was interested in your thoughts and respect your opinion.

Wow, I appreciate the time and effort in both your analyses.

I wasn't very clear in the OP, but Ali was UTG +2 (or 3, it's been awhile now). First two players limped, then he raised it up.

One reason I shoved that wasn't mentioned in the OP was that I think I had a very tight image. I played with Ali for several hours on Day 1 and played tight. When I did play a hand that went to showdown, I always had it. He actually said at one point 'So you just always have it, huh?' That factored into my decision, but consensus def seems to be that it was a punt. I tend to agree in retrospect.

Hadn't checked this thread in awhile, but thanks to everyone who gave their perspective, it really helps.

BOL to everyone headed to the WSOP

Hand 1 depends on a few things:
1) UTG limper has done this a number of times. Has the lady limped behind a number of times or is she tight?
2) Size of Ali's stack. If Ali has more than 4x your stack he isn't folding almost anything. And you still have to worry if he has 2x to 4x because he will be getting a decent price to continue.

Personally I would let it go 100% of the time. Though I can see it from the lets get it in on the non-skill section of the game vs a super tough table...

Hand 2: This is a jam or a l/c for me. Again it matters how big a stack BB has. Given a huge stack getting 3:2 on the bet he is likely to call regardless of his cards. If he has between 2x and 3x your stack I think its a call for most BB hands but there is hope for a fold. Less than 2x you fold out all his bluffs.

But I don't think its worth it. By raising to 4bb it looks like BB has 66-JJ/AK maybe AQ. Hands that don't play particularly well postflop when unimproved (and overs appear with PP) and opponent calls the flop cbet OOP. It could just be that in SB vs BB spots villain likes to bet big with all his hands but I am always suspicious of 4x+ raises in position.