WPT Fallsview $5,000

Early stages. I have been playing straight forward and have probably shown down one hand at this point (AQ). I haven't done anything crazy.

The villain has been quiet and hasn't done much. He has been tight and we have seen him involved in few pots, but it's early still.



2nd level blinds 100/200/200

Starting stacks of 40K, Hero and villain both have close to starting stack
Preflop: Hero has A J
Hero raises to 600 UTG, all fold to villain in the BB who calls

Flop: Q 8 5
Hero bets 700, villain calls

Turn: 2
Villain checks, hero checks

River: A
check, Hero bets 1,000, villain raises to 3,500, hero?

My hand looks exactly like what it is which makes me more likely to fold this. What is your calling range here? Two pair or better? Do you call AK here?

Looks soooo much like Ax, hitting two pair on river. No realistic missed draws. I think I fold.

Pretty easy fold as it’s a suicidal CR if the guy has a clue which sounds like he does

Calling range is A5 or better

how is it suicidal vs this line by OP?

Your bet of 1/3 pot looks pretty weak on the river. He may have any A and think you have a Q or jj-99.

I probably call even though I would expect A8 or A5 from V here too.

Not surprising that there are no missed draws; they often bluff the river first. A hand that check raise bluffs the river usually had some showdown value (8x for example) and realized it needs to bluff when in position bets.

8x, or even Qx should be check raise bluffing some of the time. Whether Villain will do this we do not know, but certainly vs the field here, they should

In the games I play this is always a fold, but I suspect at equilibrium it is not.

Looking at a PIO run. I guess that the Ace is such a good card for hero, that Villain doesn't really bluff much on river, first to act. Most of Villain's check raises are value but it does check raise some JT, 8x or 5x, all at very low frequencies.

hero describes himself as straightforward. So his UTG range marries his Flop/Turn/river line to include a tonne of AX all of which snap this small check raise

Nope

As described, villain should have mostly A2/A5/A8, a few small sets, and may mix in some missed straight draws. I'm sure players will c-r bluff rivers at much higher frequencies at this buy-in level, but hero has range advantage on this board and I wouldn't expect to see a ton of bluffs on this specific river.

Agree A5+ feels like our calling range.

Ahh true good point... I hadn’t even considered nope

You literally answered pretty easy fold with close to the top of OP range.

Given I have positional advantage on this guy at the table most of the time, I am calling here to see what kind of player he is to use later. It does smell and feel like 2 pair but for that price I want to see it. Guess I am a fish sometimes.

barely any extension on nope... you are pretty worthless poster in a strategy forum. Salty frustrated reg ?

You do seem needlessly vitriolic in your posts Aveer (this and other threads) which is a shame cause you also seem knowledgable

OK I see this situation occasionally and agree that in this spot our cards are almost face-up.

So, is checking behind some amount of time advantageous vs. 100% bet-fold? There really isn't a way to model that node of the decision tree but if I do not want to call any c/r here than I lose less (every time) and potentially win more? when simply checking behind.

TBH, I'd only consider it if I had a decent read that V here is capable and thinking.

Much bigger otr

It’s a low ev spot anyway I’d probably just fold and not really worry about it