How does he fold those queens?

Just crazy.

Ugh, that was bad. I know he was thinking something along the lines of, there are 2 huge stacks. One of the short stacks will come in 3d (at least) and win $4MM.

You have to understand, that these pay jumps are far bigger than some of these players biggest scores. I don't know anyone's personal finance, but I wouldn't be shocked if the difference between 6th and 4th was bigger than their net worth before the tournament.

Look at how Maahs reacted when there was an all in and a call, and he wasn't even in the hand. He looked like he had just won a tournament. In a large sense he had. There was going to be a 50% chance that he would ladder up for more money than he had won in his lifetime.

Would like to see some assumptions and math

I’ll do it if you give me the Chip stacks and assumptions of Gates’ range.

Like how often is Gates raise and folding? Then given Gates calls the shove what is his calling range?

Don't need assumptions and math. Don't fold QQ to a 3-bet. It isn't close. Also, you will get 3-bet all the time if you fold everything but AA/KK.

Then this is a NVG thread in a strategy forum and is pointless, delete it.

Not saying this is a fold, just interested in seeing the numbers and I’m probably not the only one.

Hand #45: Alex Livingston raised to 2,800,000 from under the gun, Dario Sammartino called from the cutoff and Garry Gates three-bet to 13,300,000 from the big blind. Livingston folded, as did Sammartino after a few moments, giving the pot to Gates.

Hossein Ensan 205,300,000 12,800,000
Garry Gates 169,700,000 0
Alex Livingston 50,000,000 -2,800,000
Kevin Maahs 37,000,000 2,600,000
Dario Sammartino 28,900,000 -3,000,000
Zhen Cai 23,900,000 -9,600,000

1st $10,000,000
2nd $6,000,000
3rd $4,000,000
4th $3,000,000
5th $2,200,000
6th $1,850,000

Livingston is in a bad situation ICM-wise with the 3 shorter stacks. Presumably Gates is 3-bet folding a significant percentage of the time.

If you want to run calculations it would be interesting. Even so, ICM underestimates the value of a double up as it does not consider the value of a big stack in future play. Nash is somewhat better but still gives conservative recommendations.

Also, Gates with his big stack should be 3-bet/folding a lot here, as it is very hard for anyone to call.

You can't be raise/folding QQ or you will be abused, regardless of calculations.

Anyway, I have a hard time believing any calculations will say fold QQ, considering you pick up the pot without showdown a lot when you push.

Is there some way of figuring ICM or Nash values of different stacks with the payouts? If so, you could look at the value of your stack after a double up, the value after a reresteal, and 6th place money if you bust. Then look at the probability of each. Not sure if there is software that does all of that for you.

Thanks Deuce, what are the blinds?

Gates, 3 betting and folding range is a key assumption here, what he could theoretically or should do may not line up with what he is actually doing. I was going to assign something like 20% max for this but if people disagree would adjust. Then given that he jams, are we assuming he calls with TT?

Just interested in examining this is in a vacuum. It’s a fluid situation, stack sizes change, situations are different, and after 30 minutes Livingston knows that they know this and may impact future play

Haven’t worked with ICM for years but I think there’s free software out there

Once assumptions are set it’s easy.

Just calc it after he folds. Then take a weighted average of result if Gates folds with that if he calls. Then compare

QQ only has 52% equity vs TT+ and AK

These stacks before action takes place?

yes

600K/1200K/1200K.

There are equilibrium issues. If Livingston folds QQ, Gates can 3-bet 100%.

Thanks

Yes I know and in theory you are correct but he doesn’t know that until after the hand is over and 30 minutes have passed

Assuming Gates calls with TT+ and AK and unless Gates is 3 betting with intention of folding greater than 73.5% of the time it looks like a fold according to ICM

If he folds his ICM looks like 3.91M

When Garry calls with range above on average he will have 2.66M

When Garry raises and folds ICM goes to 4.36

I may have messed something up and I totally get the whole potential for exploitation discussion but this is where we are at with these assumptions. Of course you maybe can add stuff like 99 and AQ and so forth

You are never going to be able to realize that 3.91M folding everything but AA and KK whatever those calculations say.

Lol I’m just the messenger but regardless how you feel it’s important to understand ICM

But as previously mentioned you can adapt in future hands based on the info you know that they have

But I probably would just jam even after seeing this, the others are short but have plenty of big blinds...and I agree you are somewhat neutered in future hands

Well, let's say, for the record, folding the Queens has thus far worked out pretty well for him! Second in chips with 3 to go.

Guess he figured his stack gave him plenty of play and he could find better spots.

Stop posting

If you are folding 96% of your opening range to a 3-bet, you are likely to get exploited, particularly when it is shown on TV 30 minutes later. You are going to have to open an extremely tight range also. You need to fire back at the big stacks and make it appear that they can't 3-bet you at will. Most of the time you aren't getting called and it is important for table image. Maybe your opponents won't exploit it, but you can't make that fold because ICM calculators say it is a little better EV.

What is your opinion on the hand? Can you make a better reply than 2 words?

Not sure your point here. You think the QQ fold was good?

In depth analysis by a cash game player.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzCV__fjY0I

I had a fascinating debate with a poker buddy about this hand after showing him the in depth analysis by Doug Polk. I'm blown away by the fold, which was relatively quick. My buddy is convinced it was due to ICM and the two shorter stacks going down.

The only thing I can think of is that Livingston was hoping his min raise was going to get it through, but there is no tremendous value to it and just strange. Livingston basically min raised the blinds 600k/1.4M/1.4Mante to 2.8M UTG into a pot of 3M where plus +1 has shown his calling range is relatively wide with his 200+M stack. Dario was clinging to 20BB in the CO. Maahs was doing diddly squat on the B with 28BB. Cai was struggling with 18BB left and would have shoved it in with any decent A or pair in SB, Then there was Gates floating on air at the time sitting at 169M and could defend his BB as far as 30% range if he wanted to.

So why min raise to only fold to a 3bet that could have happened by 4 of the other 5 players? Might as well have flatted UTG.

When Dario floated at the CO, Livingston can reasonably put his range fairly tight 15%-18% that might flop well or exactly mid pocket pairs and up. Gates was in an incredible position to squeeze them both with his stack. Livingston had to know that. Gates even asks what Dario had left!! He's trying to single him out and puts out a bet half of his stack... Gates didn't even really care what Livingston had because of the bet size AND Gates was defending with a strong hand.

At a minimum call with those ladies!! If not jam it in. My buddy is not convinced Dario folds to Livingston and he was taking that into consideration along with ICM. I absolutely think he knows he's done with those 88 to strong, STRONG 3 and 4bets. And Livingston and Gates both can reasonable guess that Dario didn't flat with AA or KK or AK, he would have 3bet himself.

Have to take those Queens to the flop at a minimum. See what Gates does and the texture of the board. If Livingston starts to believe that Gates has AA or KK with a strong cbet of 20-25M and there is no redraws out there, then give it up. Still have 33BB left. He didn't have to get married to the Queens but he had to see it to the flop.

Polk probably didn't comment on the fold, except to imply it was awful, because it involved late tournament short stack and ICM issues which are not his main expertise.

Gates was pot committed against Dario, so he couldn't be 3-betting as a complete bluff. That is probably partly why Livingston folded.

The issue with ICM calculations is that Livingston had a stack that was difficult to play. If he doubles up, he is in a much better situation and ICM doesn't take that into account. It also doesn't take into account that playing weak will cause you to be exploited. This is more true when everyone is going to be talking about how you folded QQ on TV.

Calling the 3-bet has to be better than folding. It might be tricky to play postflop, but this hand is so strong that it has to have enough value to see a flop.

interesting icm spot with 3 stacks shorter but its pretty top heavy

why no stream? Watching you dance used to be the best part of my day