Just under 750 left. Top 755 got a pay jump, so am I just folding way too many hands in this spot 3 ways or is it just me? Only read I have is that BTN snapped this off without so much as a thought. Should I be up against a really strong range from one of these guys, or am I blundering here?

I think for 10bb's and the chance of a triple up, I'm getting this in here with AQ.

I think it's a call given stack sizes. CO is shoving for 20 bb effective, and aggressive players can definitely be shoving suited aces here, KQ, suited broadways, all pairs for 20 bigs w antes. Depending how crazy/loose they are they may be shoving pretty light, even lighter than the hands I mentioned, throwing in suited connectors or offsuit aces and kings. This is also where reads or stats can be helpful. If I know the CO can be getting out of line here a ton, and the button knows that as well and is aggressive, I think AQ can be pretty reasonable.

CO range doesnt have to be that strong, and button call range for 15 bb is slightly stronger, but still not enough that I think I would lay down AQ w 10 bb. CO vs Button should be very wide ranges theory wise, obviously it depends sometimes on the players, but generally CO vs BU is going to be as loose as it gets.

AQ is also essentially a premium hand when we are this short stacked, we block AA/QQ and we can encounter scenarios like this one where we are up against a pair and a smaller ace/KQ, or 2 smaller pairs, or 2 dominated hands. I think you win this enough of the time to put in the 10 bb. Against aggressive opponents I think you're going to be ahead enough of the time, and when you aren't you should at least have overcards to hit in a large pot.

I can also see arguments for folding and overall it seems like a pretty close spot. You're only really crushed if one of them has AA/KK/QQ/AK though, and you block some of those hands. It's definitely a marginal spot and I wouldn't fault anyone for folding.

I don't like the spot because of BTN's snap call. You're not going to be in good shape against his range (I doubt he's snapping there with many worse Aces or hands like KQs), and CO could block one of your Ace outs.

If you work out the equity with reasonable ranges, you might just barely have the equity to call. But I'd rather preserve my tourney life and use my chips in a spot that isn't so marginal.

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Calling here for sure. I don't see CO doing this type of play with AA, AK, KK, or QQ and we block most some of those anyhow. I see BTN calling pair 77+AJs+and maybe if some suited broadways. We only have 10 BBs and with this late position action I would definitely call.

I'm getting it in, it's a late position shove and we have the second best Ax hand we could have. If he had a monster it's unlikely he would open shove as he'd probably want to get action and would elect to raise thus allowing one of the short stacks to push over top of him. It just looks like a flat out LP steal with him applying max pressure with his stack, I call and am feeling quite confident about it.

I think there's a lot of intangible factors that make this a call, but there is also a big factor to consider in that I am the SB and folding allows me to spend an entire orbit to find a better spot. On the other hand, it is entirely possible that, with the bubble having burst less than an hour before, I could be moved from the table quickly and lose my chance to even capitalize on this idea. After further reflection, I just feel like, if anything, this can't be a must-call or must-fold spot. It must be a spot where I would fold sometimes and call sometimes because of the risk involved.

It's so close, I feel obliged to ask myself other questions when I analyze this. If I knew I was guaranteed to raise and take the next hand preflop, would I call here? I'm pretty sure, given the indifference in calling here, I would actually be inclined to say no. If I knew for a fact that CO's steal frequency was high, I would definitely be inclined to say yes. Does feeling strongly towards one scenario and weakly towards another basically mean I should call? I also felt confident I could play the 10bb stack well in the next orbit, but is that relevant with such a shallow stack? I regretted folding upon seeing the hands, but what's to say that I won't see a strong hand next time I get into this spot? If I went back and played this spot over, I think I would call because I want to win the tournament, and I don't think I can win if I fold in spots like these.

Those ranges seem off. This is still over 700 players left. You've done the calc in ICM mode. Try cEV and take away some hands from that range that are likely not openshoving.


I'd range btn somewhere around 77+ AJ+ without better reads.


Readless I'd call 88 AQs AKo, fold 66 AJo, 77 AQo seems close.

id never fold when we have 10bb, its not like we are going to find a 'better' spot or something, getting 2-1 we need to win the pot 33% of the time and we often have the best or we are fliping

It's close but think you need to call. Fold if you have 15 bb's. With 10 bb's call here.
Another consideration is you are small blind so have .5 bb's invested. Small consideration I know, but with such a close decision it makes calling a bit more attractive.

I'm not super experienced but fwiw before the spoliers I had:

CO: 22-99, all suited Aces except AKs, unsuited Aces (except AKo) to A7, KTs+, KJo+. No premiums or JJ/TT because you'd raise them up a normal amount to try and induce a shove I would think.
Button: 99+, ATs+, AJo+ (this is based on him snapping).

32.9% equity for your AQo so you can justify a thin call, but I don't hate fold at all. As played I'd probably fold.

OP co doesn't shove 52%.

never folding with 10 bigs. even slightly -EV call here is pbb okay with 10 bigs since math dont understand for how much is our future EV higher with a 30bb stack there. i would fold if i had 16+

That was my very first time using ICMizer. Let me know how to adjust it so I can get the proper results.