$33 NLHE 9max MTT on BetOnline. 232 entrants. 11 left, I’m in 8th place w/ 96k chips. Blinds 4K/8k 400 ante. My image is clean. No one at table is particularly short. $111 pay out in 11th, $1.4k for first.

H get AQo UTG (6 at my table). Usual table raise has been 1-1.25 bb’s. At 12 bigs with 2 bigs dead money is AQo just a super standard open shove or a standard raise, either to play the hand or to induce? Obviously never folding to any action.

I guess my question is do I want action here or is scooping the blinds and antes uncontested the best outcome. I feel like I’m just open shoving like ATo & 77+ but somewhere it becomes a shame to ship/fold a hand that strong. Genuinely not sure on the theory here at 12 bb. Shorter is an easy shove, larger is a standard raise. Thanks.

Shove pre

With the table being 6 handed and AQo being difficult to play OOP or if someone shoves over the top you're not in a great position

I agree it’s a shove but I’m having trouble articulating why? Let’s take V have AA, KK, QQ and AK out of the mix. If they have it I’m going to pay them off. If/when I shove w/ AQo do I want to get called by A9o, KJ type hands?

Due to ICM you need your V to ship super wide here for AQ to be a induce.

You can do it at btn but no way the standard villain ship wide enough vs UTG open, not even the BB can ship very wide.

The reason this is a ship is because you want to force someone with a range that is flipping vs your AQ to fold (like 7-12%ish hand), if they understand ICM they should fold these hands, but instead you open and they ship over your AQ open then now it is you who should fold due to ICM, and this really sucks since your AQ is not a bluffing hand.

Mtgalex - makes sense. How high up in your range do you need to be to want action here? I assume obviously AA/KK want action. Probably QQ does as well. Is that it?

The way the hand played out H raised to 22,222 to try and induce a shove, UTG +1 shoved for ~77k, folds to H who snaps. V has A9o and flops a 9. If V had AK or any pocket pair I wouldn’t worry about it. But want I couldn’t / can’t figure out is if I can choose between shoving and folding around or getting AI as ~3:1 favorite, which one is better for me??? In this I’m assuming V folds A9o to the shove, but shoved over a standard raise.

Uncontested Win means I have ~14 BB’s 100% of the time.
Looked up I have ~23 BB’s 70% of time, 13BB 5% of time and 2 BB 23% of the time.

Not sure how to crunch the math. Stupid cash game player trying to understand ICM before the final table.... each spot had a payout increase start at 10th.

TT+ AK utg
Depends on icm and position

Generally you induce x% when villains are shoving 4*x%

I think you realize the A9o shove utg+1 made is terrible and no way you can expect a random play this way

Oh yeah, A9o Over an UTG raiser who has you covered for your tourney life is atrocious at ~10BB’s when every knockout is a pay jump, But V’s action is exactly what I was trying to induce. What I still don’t fully get is whether V shoving over me with A9o is a good thing in that spot. As a live cash game guy I love it and feel great for getting what I wanted. In tourney I guess I don’t really ever want action for the most part in that spot. Need to adjust my thinking.

Thanks, this has been a helpful thought process for me.

Shove pre

The main criterion that you should use (to decide btwn open or open shove) imo is $EV. Obv, the ICM math requires FGS so unless you're gonna be playing a decent amt of MTTs, you may have to evaluate other variables in order to make your decision.

If you're serious about MTTs, then you should look at some ICM sims. I used the HoldemResources Calculator and ran a sim with the (limited*) info that you provided in your OP. AQo is very close in $EV (see below.)

Open:


Open Shove:


* if you want an accurate sim, I would need the payouts (1-11) and the stacks at both tables. I used the 1st place prize to determine payouts (using a std percentage ladder.) I gave random stacks to players, with the average stacks being ~20bbs.

Here are a few relevant variables to consider:

- Do I want to play a mixed-strat.
- What are the stacks at the table and how they are distributed.
- How valuable is having a reshove stack.

I don't think it's debatable that the decision to both Open and Open-Shove in this spot is the optimal strategy. The question is how to distribute our combos into both actions. As my sim demonstrates, the $EV in very close for most combos in your ranges, so it may not matter much which initial action that you choose. That said, problems and errors can arise in subsequent actions/decisions that may make Opening problematic. For example (using the ICM model and assuming that your opponents are playing optimally) AQo is a fold to a reshove.

Are there reshove (12-20bb) stacks and are they in LP? The most favorable scenario to Open from UTG 6-handed would be having the big stacks in MP and CO, then the small/reshove stacks OTB and in the blinds.

With 12bbs, you have FE on your reshoves right now but being UTG, you will lose most of it just by going thru the blinds. Getting an open shove thru will give you 14bbs, allowing you to maintain your reshove stack after moving thru the blinds. I would assign more value to having a reshove stack in there was an aggro big stack on your right and smaller stacks on your left. In this scenario, I would tend to pass on higher variance plays (like inducing with non-nut combos) and take any opportunity to open shove and maintain FE on my reshoves.

You want action. Min raise let them play.

You have to play flops well very short stack.

You can also get away from hand by min raising if all hell breaks out behind you.

Shoving pre is a fine answer, but you acknowledging you can't outplay other players post flop.

I would minraise or limp JJ+ and shove other strong hands.

Erc007 - thanks, the being extremely close is what the hand felt like.

Thanks everyone.

I put this into play tonight. $11 tourney on BOL. 500 entrants. ~17 people left. I have 210k, probably average. In EP I open to 33k (blinds 6/12k) w/ 99. MP shoves for ~200k. I tank fold because double through now in a likely race really isn’t that valuable to me. V shows AK after I fold. H goes on to win tourney.

This thread helped. Thanks.