Second day of two-day $200 MTT with 1700 total runners. 75 left. Hero has 300,000 chips (25BB), which is a little below an average stack. Table has been pretty tight, but two new players just arrived, including villain with a slightly larger stack ~400,000, but no history with this villain.
Blinds are 6,000/12,000 +2000
Hero is in middle position with 8
8
Villain opens UTG for 30,000, which is a normal open for the table for this blind level. Folds to hero, who three-bets to 70,000, leaving 230,000 behind.
Folds to villain, who asks to see chip stack, and then snap-jams.
So, pot will be ~630,000 including blinds and antes, so Hero must risk 230K to win $630K, but it's for Hero's tournament life. There are no big pay jumps coming up, so that's not a consideration.
Hero only needs 30% equity to call, but what is villain's range? Having asked to see the stack size, villain can see that hero just put in 25% of the stack, suggesting that villain is likely expecting a call, and villain snapped in the shove so fast.
So, what is villain's range here and do we think we're flipping -- in which case the math would say call -- or do we think villain's range is more JJ+ and we are likely dominated?
(Yes, I know that folding, flatting, or jamming pre-flop might have been better options and would have avoided this spot, but now that we're in it, what do we think?)