Hi there,

Already went through it with a friend but i wanted to get some feedback from the dear community.

ACR 88$ bi 300k ME

HM didnt work on big field mtts on ACR, dont know why

Action pre

10/20k bb

53/circa 4000p

V1: pretty tight straight forward LJ min open (40k) sitting on 600k
Hero (new to the site - < 1k games) GetThere.org CO w/ AQcc 750k eff flats (with the intention of 4b gii if aggro btn 3b)
V2: LAG, 800k, has been seen 3b a decent amount, 3b big to 160k

V1: folds
Hero: follows the plan and 4b jam
V2: spoiler needed?

Question is:

-is that play too much of a High variance play?
-is there a way to play in a 3b/fold to 4b pre strat (seems a bit too weak to me but wht do you think abt it?)
-is there a way to flat the 4b pre?

What is the most +EV play (knowing V2 tendencies) and why?

Thanks for your time

Regards

I think this is fine. Flatting the 3bet is also viable as is 3betting in the first place. If we 3bet in the first place, I think it’s a call if OR jams.

I don't mind it. I think you had a decent plan going into the hand. 3bet fold seems a bit weak with suited cards. With them being OTB also increases the chances of them being FOS, so I don't mind the play at all.

I would be a little worried about balance. If we are doing this with AQs, we should also do it with AA, and that's ok because this could also be the best way to play AA given the dynamics.

Thanks for your input guys. Appreciate it. I wonder if folding facing the 3b could ve been an option. But imho it was way too weak and exploitable - eventhough being balanced vs exploits isnt absolutely needed to navigate through that type of rec field. Does anyone also have issue with HM in big fields on ACR?

Imo you lose too much value by flatting the LJ open...AQs is way ahead of a tight opening range (as long as LJ isn't an uber-NIT.)

Also dont love inducing with this hand (not quite strong enuf) plus you risk being shut out of your equity if LJ has the same read on BTN since he can reship pretty wide vs an aggtard's squeeze.

I dont think you lose much if your strat doesnt have any traps in your in pos flatting range in these types of spots.

Squeeze sizing doesn't seem big at all with 600k eff. As played 4bet jam is prob > call just don't fold.

Thx for your input.

Afterwards I also thought that it was a bit too fancy to try to induce with AQss as i am losing value vs LJ OR and as I m putting myself in an unnecessary AI situtation Pre in a pretty late stage of the mtt with a lot of value in the end. Therefore here s my final reasoning regarding the play:
3b>flat-4bgii>fold (no way lol)

p it's not a flat/gii spot. you've come too far in the mtt to punt.

question is whether it's a 3b/fold or 3b/call spot, and against which opponents.

my usual rule of thumb is that if you're not sure if it's 3b/call then it's a 3b fold.

See my rule of thumb is that if you’re torn between 3b/call vs. 3b/fold it’s probably a flat or a jam and we should find weaker hands to 3b/fold that we don’t feel as bad about folding.

This to me is a 3b/call tho.

Definitely feels like a 3b call, I think we need to raise for value and I dont see myself folding AQs for 30bb eff here.

As V has been seen raising a lot, being very LAGy up to this point and him being on the btn vs LJ OR and CO flat, i dont get how 4b jamming 30bb eff w/AQss vs BTN 3b could be a punt.

Though, I get your point abt the very late stage of a 88$ ME w/ 4k runners. Could have played a lower variance approach. -> straight up 3b instead of "inducing" like a fancy wannabe.

But once I get 4b jammed on. Even w/ V tendencies, it is still pretty depressing to call 30bb pre that late in a 4k runners mtt w/ AQss.
Because i doubt that V 4b jamming range is worse than AQ+/99+

I always found "only shove when you want to get called" a good thumb rule.

Do you want to get called with AQ?
Or do you mind getting called if he say has pocket 10's.

If answer is that you are ok with that then shoving is just fine.

Of course there are exceptions to the thumb-rule.

With that rule you must blind out of a lot of tournaments

That might be the most terrible rule of thumb I've ever heard.

If I had to sum up the key to success in late stages of MTTs, I'd say it's about maximizing your fold equity by taking advantage of players' inability to call down. If you are only shoving when you want to get called, you are passing up tons of opportunities to generate folds.

Thus the "there is always exceptions to the rule"

I understand Villain Folds a certain percentage to a Donk-Shove.
However there is a percentage of hands that he will not Fold.

Have to put a few items on the scale and analyze:.
Chips won preflop versus Stack Size
Estimated Villian's Donk Shove Fold %
AQ vs what Villian might call with
Villian seems LAG. Maybe he interprets Hero Donk Shove as a Mid/Low Pocket Pair and calls with Random Broadway Cards.

Jus' Saying. Things to be considered before playing like a Donk Shove Tonkaaa

So you're saying that we have to evaluate 5 different things, one of them being your supposed "rule of thumb". I don't think you know what "rule of thumb" means.

A "rule of thumb" should be something that, independent of other factors, is nearly always correct. Saying we should shove hands only when we're happy to be called is often wrong. Most shoves we make, we should want folds and be unhappy when called.

Let me clarify then rule of Thumb "only shove if you are ok with getting called"

Your assertion "Most shoves we make, we should want folds and be unhappy when called."
Well it's just donk 60% of time it works every-time logic <sorry>

http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hub/1783562/...=1534369157103

53 left / 4000 with 48k on top in a higher bi than my usual ones
sitting on +35bb, obvsly i rather not get called w/ AQss as i d rather win the chips right there. I still have a pretty decent stack for this stage and enough chips to navigate through the upcoming levels vs weaker oppos with smaller stacks soon in the need to shove a wider range.
No absolute need to be flipping at this point. In contrary i think that better players with +35bb should opt for a lower variance approach.
Therefore and following that reasoning, i should indeed have opted for the 3b (and re adjust depending on further action - flat a 4b (not sure abt that)- fold to a 4b (kind of exploitable but i dont care much abt being exploited at this point vs mostly rec)) vs the OR open and not for the flat-4b gii
But that just me adapting to the unfolding situation

Shoving only when you want to get called is like those people who say they always get their money in good. It means you're afraid to bluff or show up with anything but the nuts.

I dont think getting in AQs for 30bb is going to be a mistake very often, especially in lp. I think the only problem would be what is our back jamming range? I don't think it looks all that strong and we probably get looked up far more often than if we had just 3b here.

I suspect backraising AQs v this opponent is +EV OP and there is much to like, you’re getting your chips in the middle first with significant fold equity and a handy 250k chip up if correct. You also have position on the OR if it’s folded through to the blinds. I get it.

But do we have to lose our stack here with AQs those times that V1 or V2 has it? imo the best approach with high freq 3! opponents in position behind you is to increase your own 3! frequency in position against other medium stacks, even if that means some tricky decisions with AQs and 99 type hands that we may nit 3b/fold. If you 3! here and V2 cold 4 bets, then he’s either got it, or is such a sicko that you don’t have a chance anyway and may as well nit up until the table breaks.