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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 09-14-2021, 03:55 PM   #1
suuuuucz
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Posts: 10
WCOOP 55$ Main Event

Hello, should I ever lead on this river? I check because I could be beaten by flushes, sets, and if he is bluffing with Ahx I wanna keep him bluffing, but like in this scenerio he had K and probably would call if I bet. What do you think?

    PokerStars - 150/300 Ante 40 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
    Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

    UTG+1: 37,459 (124.9 bb)
    MP: 35,082 (116.9 bb)
    MP+1: 21,892 (73 bb)
    Hero (CO): 78,518 (261.7 bb)
    BTN: 16,207 (54 bb)
    SB: 87,418 (291.4 bb)
    BB: 73,056 (243.5 bb)
    UTG: 26,197 (87.3 bb)

    8 players post ante of 40, SB posts 150, BB posts 300

    Pre Flop: (pot: 770) Hero has K Q
    4 folds, Hero raises to 840, BTN raises to 1,800, 2 folds, Hero calls 960

    Flop: (4,370, 2 players) K 8 6
    Hero checks, BTN bets 1,442, Hero calls 1,442

    Turn: (7,254, 2 players) J
    Hero checks, BTN bets 3,000, Hero calls 3,000

    River: (13,254, 2 players) Q
    Hero checks, BTN checks

    Results: 13,254 pot (0 rake)
    Final Board: K 8 6 J Q

    Hero shows K Q: (Two Pair, Kings and Queens)
    (Pre 73%, Flop 83%, Turn 93%)

    BTN mucks K T: (One Pair, Kings)
    (Pre 27%, Flop 17%, Turn 7%)

    Hero wins 13,254
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    Old 09-14-2021, 04:25 PM   #2
    SuperSicko
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    Re: WCOOP 55$ Main Event

    I don't see any reason to lead here, you have a bluff catcher at best and the only value that calls you here that you are ahead of is gonna be AA, AK, and AQ (the latter two you block). You also don't have a heart in you're hand, which means your opponent is more likely to have a flush or a hand that contains the nut flush blocker. You ended up running into the bottom of his 3-betting range and while it may look like a good spot to bet based on the hand he has here, it's not a good bet against the entirety of his range.

    Last edited by SuperSicko; 09-14-2021 at 04:43 PM.
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    Old 09-14-2021, 04:51 PM   #3
    ledn
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    Re: WCOOP 55$ Main Event

    If you are leading KQ here, then what hands can you check here and call a shove with? Flushes?
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    Old 09-14-2021, 10:32 PM   #4
    3for3poker
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    Re: WCOOP 55$ Main Event

    Welcome, Supersicko

    I don't think we get to donk lead on rivers unless the board improves a significant part of our range. Sure, this card helped our exact hand, but not nearly enough to develop a donk bet strategy into an uncapped range.
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    Old 09-17-2021, 07:09 AM   #5
    deuceblocker
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    Re: WCOOP 55$ Main Event

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 3for3poker View Post
    Welcome, Supersicko

    I don't think we get to donk lead on rivers unless the board improves a significant part of our range. Sure, this card helped our exact hand, but not nearly enough to develop a donk bet strategy into an uncapped range.
    I do not understand why you would need the board to improve a significant part of your range to lead. It is better if it does not improve your range so your bet will look weird and be more likely to be called by worse.

    Is your concern he will be bluff raised? Villain could bluff raise A and various hands that he might 3-barrel. However, the lead represents and flush or straight. It is unlikely a random will pull the trigger on a big bluff into a possible big hand. However, you do not really want to be bet/folding this strong a hand. The times when you do bet/fold to bluffs are huge losses compared to if you x/ced.

    That said, leading the river is awful. Top two pair is not that good on this board. Aside from flushes, the river could make him a straight and he could have a set after 3!ing JJ/QQ/KK. There are some hands you get value from by leading, but there are others he will bluff with if you check, so x/cing is much better.

    Btw, villain's 3! sizing is nonstandard, and makes it likely he is random, and his range could be polarized to KK+ and bluffs. Tournaments like that should be pretty soft with many donks, some of them satellite qualifiers.
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    Old 09-17-2021, 09:56 AM   #6
    Mr Rick
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    Re: WCOOP 55$ Main Event

    I have no problem with leading the river as a pseudo bluff in order to get paid off by hands like AA and AK which may very well check back the river.

    However, if you do lead the river you have to be prepared to fold to a raise. And make sure that the river bet is a substantial bet (like 60%+ pot) so it doesn't look like a blocking bet.

    Personally I just check call the river. Villain can also have KK/QQ/JJ/88/66 and there is no guarantee that hands like AK will call anyway.
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