Quote:
Originally Posted by 3for3poker
Welcome, Supersicko
I don't think we get to donk lead on rivers unless the board improves a significant part of our range. Sure, this card helped our exact hand, but not nearly enough to develop a donk bet strategy into an uncapped range.
I do not understand why you would need the board to improve a significant part of your range to lead. It is better if it does not improve your range so your bet will look weird and be more likely to be called by worse.
Is your concern he will be bluff raised? Villain could bluff raise A
and various hands that he might 3-barrel. However, the lead represents and flush or straight. It is unlikely a random will pull the trigger on a big bluff into a possible big hand. However, you do not really want to be bet/folding this strong a hand. The times when you do bet/fold to bluffs are huge losses compared to if you x/ced.
That said, leading the river is awful. Top two pair is not that good on this board. Aside from flushes, the river could make him a straight and he could have a set after 3!ing JJ/QQ/KK. There are some hands you get value from by leading, but there are others he will bluff with if you check, so x/cing is much better.
Btw, villain's 3! sizing is nonstandard, and makes it likely he is random, and his range could be polarized to KK+ and bluffs. Tournaments like that should be pretty soft with many donks, some of them satellite qualifiers.