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Newbie question about how ICM affects shoving Newbie question about how ICM affects shoving

09-06-2020 , 03:26 PM
Most ICM material focuses on tightening calling ranges for midstacks and not so much for shoving. My first guesses are that there is not actually so much difference or it's too player dependent.

Here are two examples where I quickly spazzed myself out early in a final table (I've been reading a bit ICM and looking at a few examples here and there but honestly didn't expect to be in an FT so soon).

Both are from an Ignition $10, remaining payouts are approx. 387-290-220-165-114-88. Blinds are 5k/10k with 1k ante.

Hand 1:

UTG: 216k
UTG+1: 316k
CO: 288k
BU: 390k
SB (me): 242k
BB: 128k. ~15 VPIP who I've played with at one other table in the late pre-FT stages.

Everyone folds to me, I have T7o. I shove for ~13bb.

This is near the bottom of a standard 13bb shoving range but maybe here it's suicidal since I am a mid-stack. ICMizer says BB should call 26% and T7o is a shove (but extremely marginal).

What I gather from ICMizer:
- BB should call 26% and T7o is a shove but extremely marginal. But if BB is actually calling close to 15%, shoving any two is profitable.
- If BB is extremely short, I should still shove wide since the value of busting this guy is pretty high and there's no immediate risk to me.
- If BB is another mid-stack, they have to call even tighter and I should still shove pretty wide.
- If BB is deeper, they should still call pretty tight but me busting is so bad so I should be shoving much tighter.
- If BB calls even a little wider, I have to shove tighter. e.g. vs. 30%, I should only shove 58% and vs. 35% I should shove only 38%.

I feel very confident that this BB wouldn't call wider than 26% so I don't think my shove is terrible (unfortunately, I ran into QQ). Would appreciate a more informed take though.

Hand 2:
UTG: 316k
UTG+1: 287k
CO: 379k
BU (me): 114k
SB: 269k. Same opponent as last hand.
BB: 215k. On the tighter side but not as much as SB (forgot details).

Folds to me again, I have Q5s. I shove for ~11bb.

This one felt pretty atrocious. Again, standard shove with no ICM implications. But maybe a micro MTT player will not feel a lot of pressure facing the shortstack with anything decent. Plus they just saw me shove T7o.

ICMizer says if SB is calling 11% and BB calls top 15%, I can shove 34% (Q5s is slightly marginal so I guess I shouldn't do it). If BB calls 25% (reasonable), then I should only shove 21% and even QTs type hands are only breakeven.

So this one was probably a punt. But again, haven't studied a lot of ICM implications on shoving or micro MTT short stack tendencies.
Newbie question about how ICM affects shoving Quote
09-07-2020 , 03:46 AM
We need to tighten somewhat - because when we are called we are in a bad $EV situation so we need more fold equity to make a profit - so i think both these supermarginal situations are folds - especially second one where we have just been seen shoving T7 - and we wil get more calls
but then people do generally call very tight and I think its a bigger mistake to overtighten.
As a rule of thumb we should lose maybe 10-15% of the shovjng range imo when ICM factor is not really huge
Newbie question about how ICM affects shoving Quote
09-08-2020 , 08:21 AM
Hi mate, one thing that's helped me is realising that in these stakes are any of the other players thinking of ICM? The games I'm playing - Up to $16.50 seem to have a range of people but most of the time no one has any clue. I've won 2 tournaments in the past couple of days by being either a mid stack or the shortest stack, folding pretty much everything apart from high premiums. They all seem to play hands they shouldn't and get themselves into the worst spots which is great for me to ladder up. Once it gets short handed since I've been playing close to 0% of hands, most raises I make get so much credit.
You're allowed to put pressure on by shoving wide from the SB if unopened and they're short and adjusting to ICM. Unlucky you ran into a premium.
For me in the second scenario if you still have 11bb Q5s seems a bit wide to shove and I'd wait for something else.
Something that helps if they have it active is checking Sharkscope. I know a lot of people don't have it active on a lot of sites but you can head over to their stats page for most sites and get a bit of an idea if you think they'd be playing and adjusting to ICM.
GL on the tables and let's hope for more FTs!
Newbie question about how ICM affects shoving Quote
09-14-2020 , 01:19 AM
Which site(s) are you playing on? Ignition is anonymous so it looks like I wouldn't have much luck using Sharkscope.

I agree it's probably more reliable to just play tighter in the mid stages as many players are pretty loose so I'd end up in a lot of weird situations OOP with Q9s or something.

I can't really speak to the final tables as I've just started playing these and only seen 3 FTs so far, but everything gets better with practice. GL to you on the tables as well!
Newbie question about how ICM affects shoving Quote

      
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