WCOOP $109 Thursday Thrill - PKO
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 623
Folds to us OTB with QhJc with 48k. Blinds 350 and 700.
I open 2x.
SB calls pre 1400 off a 10k stack
BB calls 700 off a 75k stack
Flop - Kh 9d 9s - checks through.
Turn - Tc - BB bets 2600. I call. SB folds.
River - 8h - BB bets 6800.
Hero? We have around 40k behind. What's the play? Call / Raise / Jam? We're obviously never folding but what's the most EV line. What do we get called by if we jam vs a min click back for example? If we click back and he rips is it a sigh fold?
Also, would anyone take a different line here?
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 11,807
Just call he can have some boats here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,227
I think we gotta raise vs 67% river sizing...if BB bet pot or close to it just call...18k/f imo (u can prob CIB w 99;KK and K9)...BB can have 96s;97s;J7s;J9s;Q9s;A9s and J9o;Q9o;A9o (27 combos) vs 18 combos of boats.
No idea how/if the KO value factors in here...?
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 2,149
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 136
We're meant to jam in theory here for sure but from experience I can't see the average Villain bluff catching/calling off wide enough here to actually justify a shove from a risk/reward perspective for 70bb. His value range is obv boats and all QJ/76 and some Kx/9x. Most regs will just call boats and QJ and some 76 here if you shove for that sizing - given we don't have many bluffs - probably meant to be turning JT/QT into bluffs on this river which most people won't do, and hence a competent BB should overfold to this jam.
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 11,807
Sorry I thought villian had triple barrelled. yeah we can raise river