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(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) (WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff)

09-11-2018 , 09:57 PM
i found this to be a weird uncommon spot for me so was wondering if the forum could weigh in.

V has been very active with his 3bs. a couple levels earlier EP2 open (26bb), SB flat (tighter recreational player), and he made it 2.45x the open (from around 2bb to 5bb) from the BB and folded to the EP2 26bb 4b rejam.

obviously these small OOP raises from him contain bluffs. are they linear or polar? what does V range look like here? i'm tempted to continue with almost my entire range to be honest.

PokerStars - 125000/250000 Ante 32500 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 33.12 BB (VPIP: 22.50, PFR: 17.04, 3Bet Preflop: 8.80, Hands: 3,014)
SB: 49.48 BB (VPIP: 18.58, PFR: 15.87, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 253)
BB: 38.92 BB (VPIP: 19.08, PFR: 15.97, 3Bet Preflop: 8.16, Hands: 133)
UTG: 13.19 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
UTG+1: 25.3 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 17.41, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 253)
MP: 21.09 BB (VPIP: 15.24, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 105)
MP+1: 17.92 BB (VPIP: 22.97, PFR: 16.90, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 75)
Hero (CO): 25.13 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.54 BB) Hero has T K

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.2 BB, fold, SB raises to 5.57 BB

for a little extra information, the next hand i open QQ in HJ (23bb) he uses the 2.5x sizing IP this time from the BTN, i 4b jam and he snaps and wins KK>QQ.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-12-2018 , 11:25 AM
25 bigs feels a little short to be peeling k10o but then again we have position and we know that he has bluffs in his range - but as u mentioned he could just have a linear 3 betting range and be folding some good value hands to jams. Strange to me how he doesn't vary from his 3-bet sizing even from the SB vs. ur CO raise where you have position. Think I'm just gritting my teeth and folding because I think he will have ur k10 crushed especially when we can't even pinpoint his 3-betting range.

Blinds looks pretty friggin deep sir, how deep was this in the tourney?
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-12-2018 , 11:30 AM
KTo is pretty much one of your worst open/defend hands. You just got unlucky. I’m probably flatting like 75-80% of the other hands I open here.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-12-2018 , 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by underdeveloped
25 bigs feels a little short to be peeling k10o but then again we have position and we know that he has bluffs in his range - but as u mentioned he could just have a linear 3 betting range and be folding some good value hands to jams. Strange to me how he doesn't vary from his 3-bet sizing even from the SB vs. ur CO raise where you have position. Think I'm just gritting my teeth and folding because I think he will have ur k10 crushed especially when we can't even pinpoint his 3-betting range.

Blinds looks pretty friggin deep sir, how deep was this in the tourney?
around 90/17000 left in the WCOOP-M sunday half million. so yes very deep in a fairly big tournament.

my thought process is that the shorter stacked we are the easier it is for me to play my hand post flop (make a pair/good draw and stack off).

i found his sizing IP and OOP the most confusing. most people are increasing their sizing OOP. so if he isnt, that makes me think he is adjusting his range, but for the life of me i cant figure out what that range would be. the hand where he 3b into EP and a flatter using 2.5x sizing then folded from the BB seems so odd... EP was a decent reg, i think he knew this. he must know that he is always getting played back at, which makes me think his range in these spots is linear (no one wants to make it 2.5x into 2 OOP with A5s and try to play that post flop).

we need around 26% to peel this bet. if his range is linear, say something like 66+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+, then we have nearly 34% and can peel this hand all day. if his range is polar and has some bluffs, maybe something like JJ+,AQs+,AK and like A5s, a few KJo combos, and a couple 87s combos (just randomly picking some bluffs) then we have nearly 28% and folding looks more attractive. the above polar range is VERY tight and i used bluffs that mostly dominate my holding, so we could be doing much better. if he is like AK/JJ+ then we have around 20% and should snap fold.

i guess until i see a hand in a similar spot show down i'm kind of put in the cage and should fold. that's why im curious if anyone has experience with this sizing/stack depth/position and have seen hands that people have turned up with.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-12-2018 , 12:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
KTo is pretty much one of your worst open/defend hands. You just got unlucky. I’m probably flatting like 75-80% of the other hands I open here.
this was my thought process at the time. any suited and/or more connected hands i'm loving this peel spot. it's hard for me to think of many hands i would fold besides like A8o/A9o or i guess KTo/QTo/JTo. these hands make up around 5% of my 27%-33% opening range in the CO so with that in mind folding seems like the correct play (i need to defend the majority of my range, not the bottom 5% though). nearly any pair and like AJo+/ATs+ im almost always 4b jamming.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-12-2018 , 09:25 PM
I think his range is going to be linear here, not polar given how likely you are to flat. And because you can flat so wide, he really can't 3bet a very wide range here. I'm guessing AJ+, 88+?

So I think this is just a fold.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-13-2018 , 10:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poloplaya1414
I think his range is going to be linear here, not polar given how likely you are to flat. And because you can flat so wide, he really can't 3bet a very wide range here. I'm guessing AJ+, 88+?

So I think this is just a fold.
yeah after some thought it should be a linear range.

if i assign SB a tight range of 88+,AJs+,AQo+ then KTo holds 31.4% which is significantly higher than the 26% we need to peel.

maybe very deep in a big tourney folding is fine, but i am definitely going to be experimenting with this spot in the future and looking to peel my entire range that has some connection to it. i still believe folding A8o/A9o is probably best, but even JTo holds 31.5%.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-14-2018 , 03:46 AM
i think that folding bottom of our range is very fine here, and KTo seems like a fold from that pov
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-14-2018 , 10:19 PM
a 2.5x 3bet from the SB/BB at exactly this kind of stack depth (25-30BB) is 'historically' a nutted range (KK+ or AK/JJ+ etc).

it appears super strong every time.

this makes it possible to construct a light 3! range, with a strat to lead all flops with a small cbet. V will likely fold unimproved and Hero wins a significant chip up.

the problem is that you never know how many players have this play in their arsenal - or whether your current V does. given the high 3! freq it would appear possible, but it's that old problem of whether you want to risk your mtt life on a punt.

i'd be interested to know from the more experienced HSMTT players on this forum how many have a balanced range for 2.5x 3! at 25-30BB from the blinds.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-14-2018 , 10:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver
a 2.5x 3bet from the SB/BB at exactly this kind of stack depth (25-30BB) is 'historically' a nutted range (KK+ or AK/JJ+ etc).

it appears super strong every time.

this makes it possible to construct a light 3! range, with a strat to lead all flops with a small cbet. V will likely fold unimproved and Hero wins a significant chip up.

the problem is that you never know how many players have this play in their arsenal - or whether your current V does. given the high 3! freq it would appear possible, but it's that old problem of whether you want to risk your mtt life on a punt.

i'd be interested to know from the more experienced HSMTT players on this forum how many have a balanced range for 2.5x 3! at 25-30BB from the blinds.
yes, normally it is nutted from some random, but if your read my post fully you will see that he did this move from the BB into 2 opponents before and folded to the 4b shove in a spot that looks much more nutted than this. therefore he has bluffs here (whether they be the bottom of a linear range or just some random hand). im fairly certain this is a linear range after discussing this with people outside this thread also.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-15-2018 , 12:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wrsport1015
yes, normally it is nutted from some random, but if your read my post fully you will see that he did this move from the BB into 2 opponents before and folded to the 4b shove in a spot that looks much more nutted than this. therefore he has bluffs here (whether they be the bottom of a linear range or just some random hand). im fairly certain this is a linear range after discussing this with people outside this thread also.
Yeah, I read the OP but once the SB flats in the earlier hand it’s a different dynamic and V 3! range imo. id hesitate to apply to this HU spot. It may suggest a lighter range here but then you also have the fact that he’s less likely to be light so soon after being caught out. And I don’t need to tell you about event clusters, small sample sizes etc I’m sure.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-15-2018 , 01:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver
i'd be interested to know from the more experienced HSMTT players on this forum how many have a balanced range for 2.5x 3! at 25-30BB from the blinds.
24bb is a lot different than 32bb so I wouldn't put them in the same ballpark altough concept is pretty same. lets say for simplicity that it's a SB vs BTN spot.

With 28-33bb as a default strat vs decent opener (obv everything is very dependable since some people will flat and not 4b jam some hands etc) I'll 3bet call 88+ / AQ+(AJs+) / (KQs), jam some, flat some, and throw in some playable suited connecters/gappers bluffs and I would say my range in this spot is pretty balanced and covered. obv im making adjustments if somebody is opening too wide or too tight.

with 24bb in normal cEV environment (there are icm spots where flatting some hands will be > jamming them ) i'm just looking to jam what is profitable for obvious reasons. i don't want to 3bet 2.7x with AK and give IP player profitable flat with big part of range and have akward SPR on many akward boards. i play midstakes but i have watched a ton of material from hs and railed and worked with some of the hs guys and nobody is bothered a lot with balancing 24bb 3b oop range simply because it messes with overall EV of the spot - just jam what is jam and that's about it. i wanna jam AA since BTN will have profitable R/C with 55 vs my range, while if I 3bet w 24bb stack he'll have very profitable fold even if I have couple of bluffs here and there.

it's like vs good opponents we don't wanna have 3b c/f range here as he will easily adjust to us having too much/too little bluffs (and ev of jamming strongest hands might be (IS!!!) higher than 3betting), while if somebody is opening too much we don't have to care at all about balance and can just 3bet sheit out of him and autoprofit since he's unable to defend his wide range.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote
09-15-2018 , 09:33 PM
Quote:
obviously these small OOP raises from him contain bluffs. are they linear or polar? what does V range look like here? i'm tempted to continue with almost my entire range to be honest.
this is all villain dependent.

Generally your decision should depend on game dynamics, other players at the table and stage of the tourney.

If you know nothing on his postflop play I won`t splash at this stack depth.
Would restrict caaling range to coordinated and suited hands which can playback more often.
Agree KTo seems borderline.
(WCOOP 9 event) Range analysis of 2.5x 3b from SB vs a CO open (25bb eff) Quote

      
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