Hey guys:
This hand is from the bubble of the sunday warm-up, 2 or 3 left to cash, I have an above average stack. Villain is a good reg with tight rfi in ep, although given his stack this could change on the bubble.
Thoughts on line, someone 3bets pre, fold flop and wug river?
Thanks in advance!

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $200 Buy-in (1,000/2,000 blinds, 200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 54,677 (27.3 bb)
BB: 13,548 (6.8 bb)
UTG+2: 91,522 (45.8 bb)
Hero (MP1): 89,531 (44.8 bb)
MP2: 54,366 (27.2 bb)
MP3: 43,244 (21.6 bb)
CO: 15,790 (7.9 bb)
BTN: 51,289 (25.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K A
UTG+2 raises to 4,400, Hero calls 4,400, MP2 folds, MP3 calls 4,400, 4 folds

Flop: (17,800) 9 3 6 (3 players)
UTG+2 bets 8,625, Hero calls 8,625, MP3 calls 8,625

Turn: (43,675) A (3 players)
UTG+2 bets 16,558, Hero calls 16,558, MP3 folds

River: (76,791) 7 (2 players)
UTG+2 bets 61,739 and is all-in, Hero??

Looks like 99/AA or air. Tough spot. Probably fold for ICM purposes but still throw up in my mouth.

I guess it could be TT+ but that would take some huge balls.

Agree with Hawkes, but AKs or AQs is also in that range. River bet makes me think he hit the nut flush, bc I'm not sure he is jamming the river with you calling behind two straight streets and seeing a spade hit.

We have the A or so the nut flush is not possible. I'm 3 betting pre, not sure why we didn't? Also having that A blocker is good for you. I also think we should be jamming the turn.

As played, I guess you beat A10-AQ, we lose to a few spade combos KQs, JTs. Hard to say against a good reg.

If you're not raising pre, why are you calling the flop? Hoping to hit an Ace or King on the turn?

On the turn you hit your ace and flat called again. Did you have a plan for the river? Or is it just clicking buttons?

I'm a snap call here

If I'm taking the line on calling through the turn, I feel like I have to follow through getting 3.2 to 1

Top Pair, Top kicker (sure 99's, AA's maybe even 66's and we're in trouble)

If the villain is Kx spades, its something like 12% to hit the river and flush

I plugged this into Equilab

1st range: 66+ ATs+ KTs+ QTs+ JTs+ AJo+ KQo - super wide 10.71%
we have an EV of 79.21% to the villains 20.88%

2nd range: 99+, AQs+, AKo - tighter 4.22%
we still have an EV of 78.79% to the villains 21.21&

3rd range: 99+, AKs - super tight 3.02%
we are 82.69% vs 17.31%

**I'm new to playing around w/ equilab, ect. so if I made this confusing I apologize**

I'm sticking with my first though - Call


***After thought***
I'd put MP3 on the flush draw - he mucked when it priced out on his EV... that takes away outs from our Villain

Good reg w/ tight RFI and big stack on the bubble - doesn`t compute

shove pre if you`re worried about bubble (might be actually best on SWU bubble) otherwise I don`t understand flatcall.

Major thing is you can`t be super exploitable otr having strong range for calling pre and flop and generally it should match a good_reg`s perception of it.

Secondary stuff is he also could have wide enough thin VR (of 2p+ targeting your Ax) opening wide pre to make your blocker and TP quality less relevant.
And he still might want to vb AK,AQ w/ blocker (perceiving your TPs capped at AQ) where choosing small sizing for this can be awkward so he might jam, but once again its minor assumptive stuff.

prolly should have read the hand correctly, my b

pre-flop, 3bet to 11~14k
flop, fold
turn, re-raise to taste the waters
I think villain is not bluffing on the flop and turn against two opponents

Calling flop three ways is not good imo

Fold river, struggle to find bluffs and his not jaming AQ for value.

This.
As played fold flop, think river is a toss up.

3-betting pre, strongly consider shoving - I get that we're near the bubble but that's all the more reason to put pressure on hands with equity vs. us that might fold due to ICM considerations.

Flop is a clear fold. If we're heads-up I can see this possibly being a reasonable float candidate with the overcards and backdoor nfd, but we can fold more 3-ways.

As played we have one of our best hands that takes this line (i.e., a hand that doesn't raise at any point) so we probably should be calling, especially when we block flush combos, but it's super close.

agree with the above quoted

Don't slowroll him

If you have ace of spades this is a snap call.

Its a fold OTR.

Even though you have under repped your hand your perceived range is relatively strong on that run out.

3b pre for sure

flop is not good with one behind left to act

river as played looks like a fold, when hes polarised I doubt he would bluff when the flush card hits

he could actually vbet worse hands. not sure how we could possibly fold when we get there like this. agree with others, pre is a mess and flop as well probably.

So everyone advocating 3b is calling a jam I suposse? He had rfi 12 so 3betcalling it off in the exact bubble of soft toutbey seems like -$ev. Agree with flop being an easy fold. River still torn amd agree is pretty close.
Thanks for the feedback.

That’s exactly why we should 3bet pre, because is bubble and is gonna be opening wider than 12%.
River is close, don’t see to many worse hands/bluffs otr tho.


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