Value betting quads on boat river
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,451
$235 oaks card club. 80 entries, first level. Blinds 25/50
About 15 bands in, nothing major happened. All stacks still around 12k.
Utg mawg limps
Hero in SB completes with 89o
Loose passive old guy checks bb
Flop 999 checks all round
Turn 7, hero bets 100, BB calls, Utg folds
River 7, hero bets how much? I considered 300, 1000, shove.
Comments on pre and all streets welcome.
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 1,431
Pre is fine vs. UTG limp. Check flop, bet 1/2-3/4 pot turn is probably my default line but I'm open to other thoughts.
On river, is this loose passive old guy ever calling any bet with a worse hand than 88? If not, then I think betting large makes a ton of sense as we're really only trying to get value from 77+. The question then is whether we shove or just bet 2x pot - as weird as it sounds, I almost like shoving here. If we thought the villain was capable of calling a smaller bet with air a decent amount of the time then I could see that being viable.
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 8,609
Pot or over-bet seems good for like 2x.
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,737
Shouldnt shove bc of removal effects.
He's super 7x-22 heavy, having few 88 and some overcards.
From your perception of him we can assume he wont playback at you, wont raise 88 and would call his "boats".
So yeah bet ~800-1k.
It might be true optimal sizing should be larger considering you have more quads and you both have ton of hands which dont beat the board.
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 122
On Average, I'd make a very large overbet.
But, depends on is this an older nit that's just gonna fold or someone capable of leveling themselves into calling.
I actually just got paid off early in a tourney w/a 5x pot over bet yesterday online after I 3b a HJ open from button w/KK. Flop comes K2K.. check, check,
turn 2.. check, I bet 1/3 pot he calls.
River 5.. check, I over-shove for 5x pot... he uses most of his timebank and ends up calling me w/TT
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,451
Results.
I threw out a 1000 chip, and he quickly called. He mucked when I showed so I assume he was playing the board.
While people hate being bluffed, I think they really hate when they think they're bluffed off a likely split pot, so I wonder whether shove has merits. Of course given upside vs downside on t his he'd be nuts to call, but people do strange things and you don't need it to work that often.
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 738
Quote:
Originally Posted by hitchens97
While people hate being bluffed, I think they really hate when they think they're bluffed off a likely split pot, so I wonder whether shove has merits. Of course given upside vs downside on this he'd be nuts to call, but people do strange things and you don't need it to work that often.
Truth.
