Hi guys, this spot completely foxed me as i was so unsure what to do i almost felt like folding and saving chips for the next spot (pussie i know)

Anyways, villian is a okish reg who has a decent xr % but im unsure what bluffs he has here and if he even has enough to make the call on the turn. if he does have like K9hh in his range here should we be jamming over raise or just call and hope that it bricks river and just call again on non straighty looking rivers?

thanks in adv! GLGL

partypoker - 0/0 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 41.66 BB (VPIP: 21.72, PFR: 14.44, 3Bet Preflop: 7.20, Hands: 291)
UTG: 57.62 BB (VPIP: 29.23, PFR: 18.04, 3Bet Preflop: 6.59, Hands: 196)
MP: 43.08 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.03, 3Bet Preflop: 10.45, Hands: 156)
Hero (CO): 42.55 BB
BTN: 32.7 BB (VPIP: 22.60, PFR: 16.73, 3Bet Preflop: 6.44, Hands: 567)
SB: 90.27 BB (VPIP: 26.81, PFR: 20.49, 3Bet Preflop: 9.44, Hands: 420)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 7 8

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB

Flop: (6.05 BB, 2 players) 2 T 7
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (6.05 BB, 2 players) 8
BB checks, Hero bets 4.21 BB, BB raises to 13.05 BB, Hero calls 8.84 BB

River: (32.15 BB, 2 players) T
BB bets 26.08 BB and is all-in, fold

BB wins 58.23 BB

You can't fold the turn. Villain can have all kinds of semi bluffs, 9x, 9 with a pair. Flush draws, etc, etc.

Can the turn be a shove? An ICM disaster when he calls. But it keeps you out of the guessing game when he shoves the river. You have no idea which cards you need to fade if he is drawing. Any J,9,6 or heart can beat you. Obviously a Ten is also a disaster. Even a 2 is a big problem, although I doubt he has Tx that you are ahead of right now.

I'd jam.

I would bet the flop here. If villain has a wide x/r range, you can call a x/r with a bluff catcher and good backdoor equity.

Do not jam the turn. You never get called by worse and you never fold out better hands. The value you gain from folding out semibluffs is outweighed by the value you lose from getting called by straights. Just call and evaluate on river.

This is a bad river, so fold.

If you don’t bet the flop, jams the turn

This thinking only holds up if the board doesn’t change substantially with the turn card.

Oldsilver sucks obviously
I wonder if T9!h performs better as bet/3bet shove ott.
87 gonna be destroyed by his VR.

If we used smaller protective turn sizing I'd more inclined to b/jam however on paper stacks seems awkward to b/3b ott in addition to his pretty large c/r size.

It comes to metagame, flop is a mix, rest I think is ok as played.

more russians
the games needs more russians

I question the Villains ability to NEVER call when behind or fold when ahead. It's not like they know for sure what we have.

That being said, If they play 100% of the combos that reasonably call preflop, and beat us now, that is about 40 combos. We will have a paltry 6.4% against the calling range when we are behind. Based on the pot size and remaining stacks we would need about 51 combos to fold.

There are some combo draws that have the right odds to call us; some pair plus straight draws that do not. If Villain is semibluffing all of his 9x and naked flush draws, that will surely get past 51. Add in hands like 97o and I think jamming is +EV.

Of course there are some pretty big assumptions on both sides here. Would villain really check all of his made straights on that turn? Would you?

Agree with calling turn raise, don't like jamming.

Flop is an easy bet small for value /protection rest looks std

Good question, i think alot of us just mash the 60% pot button and lead turn

On top of what Poloplaya said, you'd just be forfeiting your positional advantage by jamming turn. Force him to play a dynamic river oop.

Moreover, a point made in Janda's book, sometimes a "bad" river card will save you when you were already behind. For instance if villain held 22 in this hand.

Flop looks like a good cb with bd fd/sd, some really good turns for us any diamond, 7,8,6,9,J which we pick up additional equity and can go ahead and 2 barrel along with some ace turns.

AP turn is fine as a call, keep worse in, minimize in case behind and play a river ip. River is really close, when we call x/r ott we dont want to see hearts J or 6 otr.. other cards are potential call candidates. I tend to hero here as I think a 10 is mostly leading turn when we check behind because of all the draws out there.. could be bad tho with icm but we only need to win 30% of the time, proly do each at some frequency folding icm situations and calling non icm

If you call turn, you have to call that river, else you'd be calling only on 7s and 8s river which would be too easeily exploited. If I call turn, as said by wowsooooted, I'd be folding river only on hearts, 6 J and maybe 9s. 10 is one of the best possible river as he'll never have a 10 as the story went. Only bad thing with this river is that 89 to 8A that played high variance OTT beats us now.

If it's so easy then why don't they do it? Riv jam ranges are still dumb strong.

What's not only easily exploitable but will see you get accidently exploited by poor players is if you only call turn with hands that will call river. He can exploit you by never jamming river with air.

What you say is true. All I'm saying here is if I call OTT, I have to call on this river. with the bets of the previous streets, gii OTR must be considered when calling OTT, if you call turn and fold every river but a 7 or 8, you'll be too easily exploitable and a T river is as good as you can get except for 7 or 8. Our hand did not deteriorate and was so underrep OTT that we can't fold on the river jam. Else the mistake would have been to call turn.

I agree that we should call often unimproved. I disagree that a T is a good river and to say our hand didn't deteriorate is simply incorrect.

Bet flop and shove turn as played.

Why not bet flop? Ugh way too passive play.