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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 02-18-2019, 09:00 PM   #1
aadc
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Turn overbet vs a maniac

First orbit of Day 2 of a live $450/100k GTD. 113 returned, 55 paid, $35k for 1st.

Villain in this hand is an older (50s? 60s?) white guy who is a reg and a bit of a maniac. Have played with him once or twice before. Very LAG pre and postflop, likes to apply pressure, bluffs a lot. Has already dusted off 100k in the first three hands of Day 2 getting caught bluffing twice. (For example: calls an UTG open on the button first hand with J9o--no diamond--then calls c-bet on QJx flop, bets turn after UTG checks when a third diamond hits, and bets river when four-flush comes, getting called down by the flush.)

2.5k/5k/5k blinds. Hero's stack = 450,000. Villain's stack = 365,000. Average stack around 400k.

Hero raises to 12k UTG with AsKs. Villain calls UTG +2, two players behind him call, as do both blinds. We go 6 ways to the flop.

Flop Ad 10d 2h. Blinds check and Hero bets 36k. Villain quickly makes a small raise to 75k. Folds back to Hero.

At this point Villain's value range is A-10, A-2, maybe 10-10 (would expect a preflop 3-bet), and 2-2. He has more draws in his range: would think any flush draw, combo draw, pair + flush draw, maybe gutshots with backdoor FD (KdJx, KdQx, KxQd, KxJd).

Hero peels pretty quickly.

Turn comes 10h, pairing the board and bringing a second flush draw. Hero quickly checks. Villain immediately over-shoves for 277k into a pot of 227k.

Thoughts on Hero's line to this point? How do you range villain given his maniac style and this line? And should we call now?

Thanks.
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Old 02-18-2019, 09:46 PM   #2
Mr Rick
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Re: Turn overbet vs a maniac

I have no problem with Hero's line.

However, villain's turn bet is fairly standard and not really an overbet. If villain were to bet half pot it would be 114k on turn, which would be >40% of his stack, which would be pot committing.

I have no idea what I would do here. Given the description I might call. Typically I would give up because I think some of the flush draws, villain checks back. But this villain, based on the description, would be shoving anyway. So if I called the flop, I would likely call the turn shove as well.
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Old 02-19-2019, 09:27 AM   #3
EggsMcBluffin
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Re: Turn overbet vs a maniac

Against this guy, seems like a super standard call OTT.

OTF, 3bet jam. The pot is already huge, for sure he calls worse, and we definitely benefit from denying equity (and all the better for us if he never folds a FD)
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Old 02-19-2019, 02:49 PM   #4
aadc
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Re: Turn overbet vs a maniac

Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
Against this guy, seems like a super standard call OTT.

OTF, 3bet jam. The pot is already huge, for sure he calls worse, and we definitely benefit from denying equity (and all the better for us if he never folds a FD)
I think we are deep enough to peel on the flop, with the possibility of getting away on bad turns. The small flop raise should be draws or 2-pair+. If we 3-bet jam (after raising UTG and leading into five opponents) how often are we really getting called with worse made hands?

In this case I think the turn card and his huge jam actually weaken his range: he's not playing quads or A-10 this fast, A-2 is now counterfeited, and neither a flush or straight comes in.
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Old 02-19-2019, 03:09 PM   #5
EggsMcBluffin
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Re: Turn overbet vs a maniac

Quote:
Originally Posted by aadc View Post
I think we are deep enough to peel on the flop, with the possibility of getting away on bad turns. The small flop raise should be draws or 2-pair+. If we 3-bet jam (after raising UTG and leading into five opponents) how often are we really getting called with worse made hands?

In this case I think the turn card and his huge jam actually weaken his range: he's not playing quads or A-10 this fast, A-2 is now counterfeited, and neither a flush or straight comes in.
Well you were there witnessing this guy in all his glory so you tell me: Does he have A3-A9, AJ, AQ in his rang and does he call a shove? As described I think absolutely yes, he does.

Does he have XdYd in his range and does he call a shove? As described absolutely yes.

I think there's something inconsistent with saying "this guy's a maniac" and ranging him solely on two pair and draws here.

I'm not sure any of our hands that would be happy to GII OTF want to play flop as a b/c instead of a b/jam. We lose out on too much value and allow his draws to set the price to get there. Maybe only AA and AT want to b/c because of their blockers, but even then b/j with those hands seems like the way to go.

Peeling to possibly get away OTT is so defeatist when you flop TPTK on a wettish board vs a described maniac who's gonna go to spew city often. What are you afraid of?

And AP definitely call turn, that should be a pretty dry card for his range although I do believe he has more Tx in his range than yours, so although it's dry it's better for his range than for yours. You're still ahead here very often.

And finally, I'm not even sure cbetting 6-handed is correct here. We probably need a cbetting range, but then again with this many people we may be better off in terms of how we play our overall range just checking 100%. In game I'm sure most of the time I'd personally just instinctfully grab chips and fire at the pot with this hand.

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 02-19-2019 at 03:27 PM.
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Old 02-20-2019, 03:18 AM   #6
SHIP_DAT
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Re: Turn overbet vs a maniac

This has a lot to do with V... You're description of today I snap. How "maniac" was he the other times? LAG? Or trying to take every pot? After being caught 2x a LAG reg may use this spot to widen your calling range with nutted hands. With you're description you call, but gotta be honest with your assessment.

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Old 02-20-2019, 05:19 AM   #7
BiggAli
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Re: Turn overbet vs a maniac

I think it's actually closer than that. Villain's range here should be JdQd, KdJd and QdKd that we currently beat which is 3 combos and 22 (3 combos) and AT (4 combos), thought not sure he goes all in turn with this one. Even if he is a maniac, I'm not sure he'll raise a lesser A on the flop on 5 people after original raiser has shown interest in the hand, maybe AdJd and AdQd (and this one should be a 3bet pre given the description).

That leaves us with 4 combos that we currently beat and have ~27% vs our hand.
and 7 combos of hand vs which we have ~2%.

That gives an equity of 190k for the call. Not so close in the end.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:19 AM   #8
aadc
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Re: Turn overbet vs a maniac

Fair points about the descript of Villain. Maybe "maniac" is a touch strong? Played with him like twice before and he's very LAG, plays a wide range, bluffs a lot. This is like the fifth hand of Day 2 and he's already been caught bluffing twice.

That said, I tend to doubt he is making a small raise with a weak bare ace (A3-A9) in early position on a six way flop. That's why I range him on the flop at 2p+ and draws. There's a lot of dead money in the pot so I get the argument for 3b jamming the flop but didn't really want to shovel in 90 bbs w/TPTK at this stage of a soft tournament with a good structure. Would expect him to call off with some better Ax (AQ, AJ) but probably not worse aces.

The argument for checking the flop here is interesting. Considered it in game. If we prefer to c-bet, do we like 1/2 pot sizing?
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