Turn bet to maximize value or check? - MTT Poker Strategy

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Turn bet to maximize value or check?

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11-30-2018 , 12:46 AM

KevinGChapman

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 656

WSOP Sunday $2500 guarantee ($20) w/ $1200 for first place.

Blinds 225/450+55
Hero has 33,000 chips, so 73BB (deep) Villain has 50BB

Hero UTG with Q

Hero leads for 1275. Button and BB call (Pot = 4545)

Flop = Q

BB checks. Hero bets 1500 (1/3 pot). Button Calls (pot = 7545)

Turn = J

Hero??????

Flop is rainbow and no likely straight draw. Villain could have Queen, pocket pair good enough to call flop-bet but not big enough to raise pre- or raise flop, set of 6s or 3s, and that's about all.

How do we extract maximum value here from villain?

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11-30-2018 , 12:58 AM

SHIP_DAT

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 280

We block the Q but not many 6s or 3s in V range here given the utg open. 77-TT probably fold to a bet but that's only 24 combos we fold out that continue on that flop. Qx is going to continue so I'm probably sticking in a healthy turn bet followed by something slightly under half pot on brick rivers.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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11-30-2018 , 01:10 AM

nonsimplesimon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 10,007

What happened to bb?

Does he raise JJ+ pre? I feel he's calling Qx and folding everything else. If he's raising it's polarizing but we'd still have to fold. I like a check and hope he stabs worse.

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11-30-2018 , 03:32 AM

RalphWaldoEmerson

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 5,954

i like to bet when I have a good hand usually

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11-30-2018 , 05:22 PM

bearer

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688

If your reaction on this turn is not excitement at the thought of inflicting coolerific karma on all the stations that ever called you down, you're not bluffing enough.

You have sorry hands like KJ you can reduce to bluff-catcher status.

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11-30-2018 , 06:31 PM

jpgiro

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 1,431

Our hand is way too good to check here. Besides all the Qx, there's some non-zero chance villain continues with his best jacks that floated flop (KcJc, AsJs, etc.) plus 77-TT. Villain may occasionally have floated Ahxh and Khxh that now have flush draws. .

Short answer - we have to bet. If we're opening QTs maybe we think about checking those back but all of our Qx should be bets for value on this runout.

Last edited by jpgiro; 11-30-2018 at 06:38 PM.

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11-30-2018 , 08:29 PM

KevinGChapman

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 656

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearer

Agree -- but what bet size?

(btw, BB folded post-flop, if that wasn't obvious)

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11-30-2018 , 09:13 PM

Mr Rick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,062

Villain can have Q

, 6

or 54s

Also villain can have a pair and think that you have a heart draw. Or AK.

I would just bet and expect to win on the turn.

However, I don't think that checking is terrible. Villain can be floating OTB. And checking looks like you have AK. So it might induce a bet. If villain checks back turn then we can bet river and expect to be paid off by a pair.

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12-01-2018 , 04:38 AM

bearer

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688

No strong opinion on turn sizing. 2/3rd would be my default without the blockers. 1/2+ seems fine.

You're right he'll do plenty of folding here, you're not entitled to his stack because you made a good hand, but wont that be nice when you barrel all those broadway draws.

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12-01-2018 , 10:01 AM

#10

jl121

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 224

If you really think he's folding almost always to a turn barrel, then just use a smaller sizing. You might wanna use 1/3 pot w/ bwy draws. But never, ever check here.

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12-01-2018 , 10:47 AM

#11

nonsimplesimon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 10,007

I agree that when we have a good hand we need to bet. But in this case I think he's folding to a bet most of the time. So I think if we can check and induce will have slightly better results.

Another thought. If we have a strong checking range here it might help when we do check here with a weak holding for a cheap showdown in the future.

Also if we do bet and get raised it's kind of a ****ty spot. We'd have to go for it but not liking it.

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12-01-2018 , 11:13 AM

#12

huor1pukk1

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 50

Check flop. As played, obv Vbet. V will continue enough ott and if not, just bet range and print.

-huor

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12-03-2018 , 11:19 PM

#13

KevinGChapman

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 656

Thanks for the views, guys. As played, hero bet 3100 (just under half pot) and villain folded. Thus, my feeling that I missed out on value.

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12-04-2018 , 01:24 AM

#14

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,077

yea id bet and try to get x3 streets from AQ,KQ

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