Hi guys, this is Big 50 (played on .es obv) and table is really soft (loose passive players and weak)
V is unknown, plays something like 19/8 but small sample, looks to be fishy and calling station (at least was my read and how he played so far)
I guess flat is standard here?
WUG river?
Thx


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $44.86 Buy-in (350/700 blinds, 85 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37832630

BTN: 4,639 (6.6 bb)
SB: 68,782 (98.3 bb)
BB: 55,331 (79 bb)
UTG+2: 21,966 (31.4 bb)
MP1: 17,646 (25.2 bb)
MP2: 25,324 (36.2 bb)
MP3: 19,186 (27.4 bb)
Hero (CO): 22,505 (32.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T J
3 folds, MP3 raises to 1,400, Hero calls 1,400, 2 folds, BB calls 700

Flop: (5,230) J J 2 (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 bets 2,100, Hero calls 2,100, BB folds

Turn: (9,430) 8 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets 3,995, MP3 calls 3,995

River: (17,420) 4 (2 players)
MP3 bets 8,710, HERO ???

Ugh, tough spot. It's a weird line, but I think I let this one go. I don't think he plays QQ-AA this way. He's repping the flush and I don't think there's a good enough reason not to believe him. Strange he didn't shove, but I don't think we can read much into that.

You were probably going to bet more if he checked to you, so he's saving you money if he's got you beat

I would never fold here vs someone who doesn't know what they're doing, they can show up with random crap that aren't even bluffs like K8 trying to blockbet or whatever thought process I don't understand happens there.

its such a drastic adjustment to fold a hand that's literally one of the best hands you can possibly have in that spot that i wouldnt rly consider it as an option. if the guy is able to x/c turn with a fd instead of barreling it he should surely be able to make tons of other bad plays which could include leading river with AA or whatever in that spot otr. just call every time.

Thx guys, i do agree that randoms gonna random and can show up here w/ QQ+ or whatever, but one think i forgot to mention is that i had no timebank left so we have to make our decision fast, like 10 seconds fast
Also he instabet river if that counts.

Never folding in this spot. Call and nh.

Obviously he should c/c lots of FDs ott.
This hand is part of gto calling range, not one of best hands we can have.

From my exp wont say people overdo within this line badly.

those two statements express a very similar if not the same thought. doesn't seem contradictory at all.

Idk, villain bets like 85% of his remaining stack after you've played the flop and turn exactly like the hand you have.

Snap muck

Forgot about this thread .
I ended up folding (one of the reasons I had no timebank left)


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I think folding river and telling no one based on 100% of sizing tells is reasonable.

He bets 8700 into 17000 and leaves 3k behind. In my experience this is never a bluff as if he were he'll be wanting to maximise FE and jam allin. The more creative a line is the less im inclined to think its a bluff by population

This river bet stinks of someone betting big for value. A lot of people think that if they check their really good hands OOP that their opponent will just check back OTR and think that they missed some value, so they throw out a bet hoping to get a call. This bet size doesn't make much sense, but villain might have had you on a J and went for this bet thinking you cant fold. I think his range here includes 88, AKd, AQd, maybe that one combo of AJd. I just don't see what he's trying to bluff here?

I guess you have to fold now, since it just screams of a value bet hoping that you'll call. For this to be a hopeless bluff attempt would be pretty far fetched, but not impossible. I generally call too much and this would be one of the spots I would be hard pressed to fold, but given the dynamics it actually makes sense. I highly doubt he's turning a pocket pair between 10's and 6's into a bluff now, but as for bluffs that's about the only bluff he could show up with here, besides a crazy random one.

While having Jx with a diamond would be nice, we don't really have that many combos in our range where that's the case. I guess some small percentage of the time we'll have a hand like backdoor diamond draw where we floated flop and then picked up equity on turn. While JT is one of the worst Jx hands we should have, it's probably still too high in our range to fold, although I guess if you think your villain isn't capable of bluffing here then I can see a highly exploitative fold being reasonable.

I think as a general rule its ok to overfold in spots where your opponent has to be very creative to bluff so can't flame you if you folded