Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-15-2020, 04:16 AM   #1
MahatmaJohnson
stranger
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 3
TPGK but unsure on every street

Thoughts on all streets welcome

$50 w/re-entry, 24 left (already ITM)

Blinds 2k/4k w ante
I start the hand with ~110k, top 10 in chips, nobody at table has less than 50k.
Villian (BB) recently joined table with 90k

8 handed, hero raises QdJd UTG+1 to 8.8k, folds to villian who calls

Flop Js7s4d (pot 23,600)

V check, hero bets 8,900, V calls

Turn 6c (pot 41,400)

V check, hero bets 14,000, V calls

River Kc (pot 69,400)

Villian shoves for 58,000, Hero ???


Brief thoughts I had, at least during hand -- PF: could sometimes fold, but had been pretty quite lately and table wasn't too aggressive. Flop: Small bet for value, would bet much of range the same way. (yeah?) Turn: Card is better for his range and I'd hate to get checkraised but given that he called flop, he's probably got at least a few outs. I wanted to get a little more out of him to see one more card and planned to check back most rivers. Bad size if I'm betting here? River: When I saw that card, I said to myself that if I were him I'd shove, and then he did and I'm not sure where to go from there.
MahatmaJohnson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2020, 11:40 AM   #2
PunnyYouSayThat
Tattoo Commissioner
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 5,062
Re: TPGK but unsure on every street

Quote:
Originally Posted by MahatmaJohnson View Post
Thoughts on all streets welcome

$50 w/re-entry, 24 left (already ITM)

Blinds 2k/4k w ante
I start the hand with ~110k, top 10 in chips, nobody at table has less than 50k.
Villian (BB) recently joined table with 90k

8 handed, hero raises QdJd UTG+1 to 8.8k, folds to villian who calls

Flop Js7s4d (pot 23,600)

V check, hero bets 8,900, V calls

Turn 6c (pot 41,400)

V check, hero bets 14,000, V calls

River Kc (pot 69,400)

Villian shoves for 58,000, Hero ???


Brief thoughts I had, at least during hand -- PF: could sometimes fold, but had been pretty quite lately and table wasn't too aggressive. Flop: Small bet for value, would bet much of range the same way. (yeah?) Turn: Card is better for his range and I'd hate to get checkraised but given that he called flop, he's probably got at least a few outs. I wanted to get a little more out of him to see one more card and planned to check back most rivers. Bad size if I'm betting here? River: When I saw that card, I said to myself that if I were him I'd shove, and then he did and I'm not sure where to go from there.

Annoying & close spot, but considering he’s so polarized here, I think we can find a call—esp with the unknown factor. I feel like in an unknown situation his shoves will be weighted more towards missed draws and in a reg vs reg situation, it will be weighted more towards value. In a reg vs reg situation, the missed fd on the flop is so obvious it’s unlikely he would take this line knowing that people tend to hero call in polarized situations. In an unknown situation (or if you had any suspicion of him being a weaker player), I think it would be a mistake to assume V is recognizing that the turn card is better for his range—for that reason and because we want value/protection from combodraws, a turn cbet is mandatory imo. When he x/c the turn he’s pretty capped to 1pair+draw type hands because he would want to get value with 2pair+ from a J (and get protection himself).


as V, it's a really bad spot to take this line with a missed draw because of the obvious missed flop fd but is he really just x/c 2pair+ on the turn? If he backdoored some weird Kx 2pair hand then I guess nh

Last edited by PunnyYouSayThat; 09-17-2020 at 11:48 AM.
PunnyYouSayThat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2020, 12:39 PM   #3
Mr Rick
Pooh-Bah
 
Mr Rick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,745
Re: TPGK but unsure on every street

Not sure why we would bet 14,000 on the turn unless we wanted to induce on the turn or shove the river. It looks like a blocking bet in position.

If I am betting the turn I would make it 21,000 to 25,000 which would be just about pot committing for Villain. So I would do this with the idea being it is the last money I put in the pot unless a Q or J hits the river.

In practice I would probably check the turn and call down the river bet/bluff.
Mr Rick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2020, 07:12 PM   #4
oldsilver
MTTLivePro
 
oldsilver's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: back yelling at clouds
Posts: 5,600
Re: TPGK but unsure on every street

I play it the same to the river then fold to the shove. Ppl tend to underbluff these spots
oldsilver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2020, 12:27 AM   #5
lolposting2016
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,981
Re: TPGK but unsure on every street

Flop size is too small By a lot
Turn size is ? It’s a bad card for you not sure if you get to bet looks like just a button click
Otr you have to fold unless you wanna try and find one of his relatively few bluffs but the call would be losing a lot
lolposting2016 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2020, 01:11 PM   #6
3for3poker
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 825
Re: TPGK but unsure on every street

River lead is not GTO, therefore just a matter of whether Villain is overbluffing vs value. We do unblock all bluffs, with no flush cards and straight draw cards. I guess vs an unknown this makes it a call. I agree with those who say Villain will be over weighted towards value, but in theory this is probably a call.
3for3poker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2020, 03:01 PM   #7
lolposting2016
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,981
Re: TPGK but unsure on every street

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3for3poker View Post
River lead is not GTO, therefore just a matter of whether Villain is overbluffing vs value. We do unblock all bluffs, with no flush cards and straight draw cards. I guess vs an unknown this makes it a call. I agree with those who say Villain will be over weighted towards value, but in theory this is probably a call.
Why do you think that the oop lead isn’t “gto”
lolposting2016 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2020, 03:33 PM   #8
3for3poker
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 825
Re: TPGK but unsure on every street

Quote:
Originally Posted by lolposting2016 View Post
Why do you think that the oop lead isn’t “gto”
The king improves hero's range more than the Villain. My PIO run had about 2% leading range...
3for3poker is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:16 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online