Thoughts on all streets welcome

$50 w/re-entry, 24 left (already ITM)

Blinds 2k/4k w ante
I start the hand with ~110k, top 10 in chips, nobody at table has less than 50k.
Villian (BB) recently joined table with 90k

8 handed, hero raises QdJd UTG+1 to 8.8k, folds to villian who calls

Flop Js7s4d (pot 23,600)

V check, hero bets 8,900, V calls

Turn 6c (pot 41,400)

V check, hero bets 14,000, V calls

River Kc (pot 69,400)

Villian shoves for 58,000, Hero ???


Brief thoughts I had, at least during hand -- PF: could sometimes fold, but had been pretty quite lately and table wasn't too aggressive. Flop: Small bet for value, would bet much of range the same way. (yeah?) Turn: Card is better for his range and I'd hate to get checkraised but given that he called flop, he's probably got at least a few outs. I wanted to get a little more out of him to see one more card and planned to check back most rivers. Bad size if I'm betting here? River: When I saw that card, I said to myself that if I were him I'd shove, and then he did and I'm not sure where to go from there.

Annoying & close spot, but considering he’s so polarized here, I think we can find a call—esp with the unknown factor. I feel like in an unknown situation his shoves will be weighted more towards missed draws and in a reg vs reg situation, it will be weighted more towards value. In a reg vs reg situation, the missed fd on the flop is so obvious it’s unlikely he would take this line knowing that people tend to hero call in polarized situations. In an unknown situation (or if you had any suspicion of him being a weaker player), I think it would be a mistake to assume V is recognizing that the turn card is better for his range—for that reason and because we want value/protection from combodraws, a turn cbet is mandatory imo. When he x/c the turn he’s pretty capped to 1pair+draw type hands because he would want to get value with 2pair+ from a J (and get protection himself).


as V, it's a really bad spot to take this line with a missed draw because of the obvious missed flop fd but is he really just x/c 2pair+ on the turn? If he backdoored some weird Kx 2pair hand then I guess nh

Not sure why we would bet 14,000 on the turn unless we wanted to induce on the turn or shove the river. It looks like a blocking bet in position.

If I am betting the turn I would make it 21,000 to 25,000 which would be just about pot committing for Villain. So I would do this with the idea being it is the last money I put in the pot unless a Q or J hits the river.

In practice I would probably check the turn and call down the river bet/bluff.

I play it the same to the river then fold to the shove. Ppl tend to underbluff these spots

Flop size is too small By a lot
Turn size is ? It’s a bad card for you not sure if you get to bet looks like just a button click
Otr you have to fold unless you wanna try and find one of his relatively few bluffs but the call would be losing a lot

River lead is not GTO, therefore just a matter of whether Villain is overbluffing vs value. We do unblock all bluffs, with no flush cards and straight draw cards. I guess vs an unknown this makes it a call. I agree with those who say Villain will be over weighted towards value, but in theory this is probably a call.

Why do you think that the oop lead isn’t “gto”

The king improves hero's range more than the Villain. My PIO run had about 2% leading range...