ACR Sunday Million
102 of 3,271 Entrants Remain
Blinds: 4,000/8,000 Ante: 800

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) - 427,000
Villain (UTG+2) - 598,000 (No hand history, his 2nd hand at my table).

Hero dealt 1010 (We are 9 handed)

Pre-flop
Hero UTG, raises to 18,400
Villian UTG+2, 3Bets to 59,000
Everyone folds to Hero, Hero Calls

Flop
632 (Pot=137,200)
Hero checks, Villain bets to 49,000
Hero raises to 123,500, Villain Calls

Turn
K (Pot=384,200)
Hero checks, Villain checks

River
9 (Pot=384,200)
Hero checks, Villain jams all in for 245,000 effective
Hero calls

Villain shows 99, Hero eliminated from tournament.

Few questions:
1) Is wrong to eliminate pocket 9's from opponents range when he 3bets from UTG+2 into an UTG raiser?
2) Do you agree with turn check? Was debating jamming here.
3) Do you fold to the river shove? Maybe hero calling hoping he was bluffing with AXx is a bad play.

Appreciate any input.

Pre is fine.

Don't love the flop raise, I understand we want to deny equity to random overcard combos but with TT and a diamond we're going to be able to check/call at least two streets easily. And if we get jammed on the flop are we calling off?

Turn check is probably fine, I'm not sure what jamming accomplishes, maybe you get JJ-QQ to fold sometimes but you're really just turning your hand into a bluff at that point.

On river where does TT fit in our entire range? It probably is one of the weaker value hands we should be check/raising flop with but we also should have some nut flush draws we can fold. Think our check turn/check river line probably may induce enough bluffs to justify the call (hoping to get us off exactly TT-JJ) but I can easily be talked out of it.

I would probably jam pre. Definitely a little on the thin side, but I still think it’s profitable at 50 BBs and beats playing a hand like this OOP.

As played, I’d c/c the flop. C/r is pretty bad IMO. Results not withstanding, I don’t think you’re ever getting called by worse or folding out better.

As played, I would jam turn. You’ve turned your hand into a bluff at this point, and the K is a good card to barrel because you can rep AK and get JJ/QQ to fold.

River call is bad. What Ax does he have in his range? Pretty much just AQ and AK and you’re behind AK anyways. I certainly didn’t expect him to flip over 99 but you’re still behind most of the time to AK/KK/AA

Appreciate the input guys.

Just wanted to defend my check raise line on the flop. I actually still like this line alot.

When he 3Bets From UTG+2 into a UTG raiser I put him on the following range [AxKx, Ax,Qx AxJx, AA,KK,QQ,JJ] - 72 Combos

On the flop it is standard to check OOP to the preflop aggressor. When he bets I choose to raise with the intention of calling an all in. At this point in the hand I wanted to get all the money in the pot for the following reasons based on the range I gave him above:

AxKx (No Ace Dia.) = 12 Combos
AxQx (No Ace Dia.) = 12 Combos
AxJx (No Ace Dia.) = 12 Combos
Total = 36/72, 50% (He folds, and 50% chance I pick up pot here).

AdKx = 4 Combos
AdQx = 4 Combos
AdJd = 4 Combos
Total = 12/72, 16.7% (He calls/shoves, and I get money in pot ahead).

AxAx (No Ad) = 4 Combos
KxKx (No Kd) = 4 Combos
QxQx (No Qd) = 4 Combos
JxJx (No Jd) = 4 Combos
Total 16/72, 22.2% (He calls/shoves, we are behind but are live with 11 outs, ~45% Equity)

AdAx = 2 Combos
KdKx = 2 Combos
QdQx = 2 Combos
JdJx = 2 Combos
Total 8/72, 11.1% (We are dead)

So with a 67% chance we are ahead, I think we should be happy with building the pot on the flop.

Giving him 100% c-bet in this spot seems ambitious. Not sure people are betting their AK/AQ/AJ with no diamond.

First of all your counting is a little off. You're forgetting the 3 combos of AK/AQ/AJ where he already has a made flush and you're dead. You've lumped those into the combos where he just has the naked Ad.

Also, I don't think he's 3betting AJ very often, so I would take out those 16 combos.

Finally, when he has the naked Ad and two overs you're almost even money, so I think it's disingenous to say you're "ahead".

After redoing that math, there are 24 combos you're ahead of, 6 combos where you're flipping and 26 combos where you're behind.

Furthermore, even if you were ahead of his range, by raising, you fold out everything that you have beat and let him continue with hands that you're either flipping or losing against. Better to call and keep air in his range.

Edit to my post above:

I guess you're also basically flipping when you are against a higher PP with no diamond.

But you also counted the PP combos wrong. For any given PP like JJ there are 3 combos with a diamond and 3 combos with no diamond.

So really, assuming we're up against AQ+/JJ+ and villain cbets 100% of the time, we have 24 combos we're ahead of, 18 combos we're flipping against and 14 combos we're crushed by.

Agree with all the above. Lets eliminate AxJx from his range (56 Combos left).

My math is even more off because I didn't account for combos of Ax(K/Q/J)d where he has a great amount of equity.

Redoing the math:

AxKx (No Ad or Kd) = 9 Combos
AxQx (No Ad or Qd.) = 9 Combos
Total = 18/56, 32.1% (He folds here).

AdKx (No Kd) = 3 Combos
AdQx (No Qd) = 3 Combos
AxKd (No Ad)= 3 Combos
AxQd (No Kd)= 3 Combos
Total = 12/56, 21.4% (Coin flip)

AxAx (No Ad) = 3 Combos
KxKx (No Kd) = 3 Combos
QxQx (No Qd) = 3 Combos
JxJx (No Jd) = 3 Combos
Total 12/56, 21.4% (We are behind but have about ~45% equity)

AdAx = 3 Combos
KdKx = 3 Combos
QdQx = 3 Combos
JdJx = 3 Combos
AdKd, AdQd = 2 Combos
Total 14/56, 25% (We are dead)

So with 32% of being ahead / 43% of flipping /25% of being behind. Check raising flop could be considered a bad play when I want to keep the bottom of his range in the hand.

Thank you.


EDIT: I think the Villain is capable of making a 1/3 Pot Cbet with 100% of the assumed range we put him on. Maybe It's a bit aggressive but I would 1/3 to 1/2 pot Cbet 100% with my entire range on this board in his spot.

would you have posted the Hand if he didnt got his two outer? Only his bad play combined with luck made u think about that hand....which isnt probably a bad thing, when ignoring that u lost

His 3b pre is pretty bad does he wanna induce a 4b from 77 and call off no? then its a bluff. why do this hand in a 3b bluff range? makes not much sense, its just fragile strategy.

The x/r otf yeah u got it this play has higher downside as upside. As u will only flip at best in most cases. There will be better spots to get the money as a way higher favorite.