So i think its easy to see i royally fked up here.

please excuse the way i break down hands, no where near as technically acurrte as most of you, sorry in advance.

Hero is 156 blinds deep in the 200K$ gauranteed 200 dollar rebuy @ Hard Rock Tampa

Level 4 150-300

Hero has a splashy aggressive image (also v stoned w sunglasses on)

got caught bluffing twice already, took down a couple decent pots where it was ovious but no one strong enough to cal and called all in 4 ways on the flop W KJ on a J hi board to scoop a nice pot

villain BB (165bb) is a tourney reg and shows up to the table complaining about a beat and is playing a good amount of pots

Utg(78BB) limps in

Utg+2(55BB) limps in

folds to hero on BU w AdAh (156BB) makes it 2k to go

Villian (BB) calls with a bit of a smirk and says ill call

UTG, and UTG+2 fold

Villian checks dark

flop comes 4dTc9c

Hero makes it 4k

villian ships it and has me covered w 156BB

what do you do here?

I'd lean slightly towards folding here to this ridiculous size, but it does feel close and I can certainly make an argument to call. We will obviously have T9 and all of our sets that are better hands to call off with, we also should have some flush draws that have good equity against stuff like JJ-QQ that maybe decided not to 3-bet. If we are calling with overpairs AA w/o a club is a pretty good candidate as it doesn't block club draws or QJ.

Fun one!

From a theoretical perspective:

*By my calculation villain is betting 149 BB to win a 29 BB pot. So we have to call with 19% of our range to ensure villain can't profitably shove any two

*If we think there are a lot of draws in villains range, having AA is much better than JJ since most of villains draws will contain overcards

*It's good that we don't have the A of clubs. Having the Ac would block some of villains flush draws, which we of course want him to have

Finally from a practical perspective:

*IME when a $200 tourney reg does this they always have a draw

Easy call IMO.

He shouldn't have T9o or 44 though, those should limp behind. So this is only 9 combos.

Flip a coin as to whether he has the set/2 pair or flush/straight draw. Could he even be shoving with top pair, putting you on a button bluff? Call and go deep or go broke.

our thought processes are along the exact same line.. he ended up having pocket 4s i knew no 3 bet pre meant no pocket nines or 10s.. every old tourney reg seems to always have the draw right there or an overvalued pocket pair or top pair top kicker..

thx for your input it put the decision at ease for me a little to nknow my thought process was very on point.

didnt think he would have 44 either but he did

this was the main reason i called i thought theres no way he knows i am as strong as i am just thinking i will snap fold

I actually meant this about your range -- I figured you'd likely limp the button with T9o or 44 rather than iso-ing.

Thanks for posting results -- unlucky to run into a set. Maybe I'll update my priors next time and won't call off light assuming they always have a draw in this spot (but if I have AA no club they're still getting my stack).

that was what made the decision final for me, not having a club in my hand..

some people were saying i made it too big pre, do you?

felt on the higher side of standard but certainly fine

It seems like villain shoves here knowing you have something and you’re likely putting him on a draw. So in fairness he has played the hand well. I don’t see how you can fold though unless you think it’s just too much of a risk.

Nah, totally fine at a deep and soft table like this. Lol, if villain didn't call you I bet one of the limpers would have done so simply to play sheriff.

i agree, and thats what i was hoping for

My first thought is there are still a multiple flights left so lets stick the chips in and try to win a big pot.

My second thought is that we have more than twice the starting stack in the 3rd/4th level and this spot isn't exactly a slam dunk so maybe we can just fold.

If V is a decent reg he shouldn't be doing this with random Tx so he most likely either has us crushed or has a lot of equity vs our hand. If we give him a range of 44,T9s,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,T9o then we have about 35% equity.

So I'm inclined to sigh fold and move on.

+1 re the above. being able to rebuy (for half the stack we have if we fold) should only be a consideration in a close spot. if V was some random rec simply having a good time and splashing around then it's close but a tourney reg wouldn't do this without crushing or having a monster draw so that makes it less close. i would fold and not beat myself up - your pre-flop raise was fine.

Jonezy here's an additional thing to consider: it sounds like you were thinking about the hand in terms of trying to be unexploitable. Others are advocating exploitative lines, which is fine sometimes, but villain is a $200R reg, and we generally should only be trying to exploit players who are worse than us.

So if I were you I would listen to advice on how to exploit from $1k+ regs, and otherwise just stick to the math.

Even if he can profitably jam any two, it comes at such great risk/cost to himself that we need not worry about being exploitable.

Having said that, AA is my favourite hand so I would probably call.

No. Thus doesn't make any sense at all. You seem to have made the assumption that villain is making a balanced 150+ BB shove!

Put villain on a range and find your equity against it. I'd suggest you're looking at sets or combo draws. It's just never going to be an open ended straight draw. You're really hoping for a naked nut flush draw, but it seems pretty unlikely.

Against sets you're drawing pretty thin.
Against combo draws you're in ok shape.

In neither spot are you loving life. Seems like a fold to me.

False. I have made no assumptions about villain's range.

Good point, he is risking his tournament life. The 19% statistic I listed is how much we'd have to defend in a cash game. In a tournament it will be lower (though not by much in this spot -- it's early in a rebuy event).

In which case I misread your original comment. I read your comment as saying we would need to call a % of our hands now to avoid being exploited. It looks like I got the wrong end of it.

Whilst I agree with the statement in theory. The reality of this spot is that villain has a very narrow and specific range for shoving here. So our calling range has to be based on that range for villain.

As I said before, I think in this case villain's range will be sets and combo draws pretty much always.

I think I’m calling here. I don’t feel sets are jamming as that is super spewy. At worst opponent has 10-9. I feel opponent shows up a lot here with jj/qq, 10-9, 7-8, flush draws along with flush draw combos. I feel jj is a prime candidate for a hand opponent could spazz with here as live players really don’t 3 bet hands such as jj or qq I feel.

I would call but obv take my time to run perceived equity’s and see how my opponent is acting if I go into the tank and make it look like a decision. I’m leaning toward a call as I feel a lot of live players will do this with jq without 2 clubs kinda. If this was an old man nit, a tougher call but a competent and not nitty player will do this with a wider range of hands. I know this is super high variance kinda bc your opponent will have a ton of equity when they have combo draws or have you beat, I feel you gotta take this spot. You will rarily see this line I feel with sets or two pairs I feel honestly. Ripping two pair here is so awkard and would be better served by a check raise on flop or turn by Villain. I say get it in and hope you hold. Even against a two pair hand, you have equity so I feel this is a go and ez call. If you lose just run it up to not being your tourny to win. Just rebuy and go for it again.

Just saw hand result, your opponents line is terrible imo. If you are an aggro player, you should fold a lot here when you c bet air. I think as played, good call and just bad tourny luck. Ripping 150’bbs with a set is so terrible in my mind. I would fold big draws here that weren’t flush/straight combos. A check raise is much better by villian to start bloating a pot. Villains line is so ****** terrible in my view. It works but def not going to be most ev play long run against what your range is here. His jam makes your hand so easy to play right. Most people will fold jq without two clubs here easily and villian is just winning a small pot against this type of hand vs a check raise line imo.

Unless he had a read preflop and put him on a range of AA KK QQ?

Lol good tag/lags are not opening only qq+ here? I’m prolly isoing to this sizing with aj+ 77+ J10+ k10+ and looking to play a pot against lol live mtters. Have fun when I fold my hand and you just won a tiny pot. Super +ev to rip 150 bbs against that range.

Just saying live reads are comical. People can’t soul read live. Villian is lucky to be against a hand that can call.

Lol yup, also a bunch of nits ITT are folding QQ-AA anyway, so ripping in 150 BBs with 44 is akin to dipping 2 $100 bills in kerosene and lighting a match nearby.