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05-08-2016 , 06:11 PM

rasmax

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 54

Hi

for me it was a tough decision

5 left, 4 tikets for a 100 euros mtt...

i finished 5 obv. Sould i make this call with aj?

Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (3,000/6,000 blinds, 1,200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37328066

BB: 9,006 (1.5 bb)
MP: 54,985 (9.2 bb)
CO: 26,992 (4.5 bb)
BTN: 30,640 (5.1 bb)
Hero (SB): 10,377 (1.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

2 folds, BTN raises to 29,440 and is all-in, Hero folds, BB calls 1,806 and is all-in

Flop: (24,612) 3

(2 players, 2 are all-in)
Turn: (24,612) 6

(2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (24,612) A

(2 players, 2 are all-in)

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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05-08-2016 , 09:16 PM

RalphWaldoEmerson

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 5,954

seems easy fold but idk

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05-09-2016 , 09:15 AM

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

go allin on some hands before this one
as played put E100 in your account, close your eyes and call

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05-09-2016 , 10:14 AM

Mr Rick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,056

Problem is if you call, BB folds every time unless they have a monster like KK+. Maybe only AA...

And you are only 60% to survive vs KQ or most random hands. 70% if they have Ax or Jx. And 30% vs AQ+/JJ-KK.

By folding you gave yourself a 60% chance of winning as played by BB. And BB basically has to call here with almost ATC because its HU and they are all-in next hand where best case they are against only the BB but worst case they would be playing a random hand vs multiple players.

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05-09-2016 , 11:38 AM

rabbhit

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 97

Good fold. Unlucky BB won the hand.

Skickat från min SM-N910F via Tapatalk

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05-09-2016 , 10:01 PM

RalphWaldoEmerson

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 5,954

what rick said

pay more attention oldsilver...or just put another E100 in your account, w/e works

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05-10-2016 , 02:49 AM

Mrspiky

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 352

Sorry to diverge, and what do you guys think about the button shove with the 2 shorties in the blinds?

Btw, I would have folded AJ as well

Sent from my D5803 using 2+2 Forums

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05-10-2016 , 05:07 AM

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

Quote:

Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson

what rick said

pay more attention oldsilver...or just put another E100 in your account, w/e works

I saw BB stack size and I know BTN range is super wide in this spot ~75%. AJ crushes.

because BTN range is ~75% and BB is by definition 50% it's a pretty interesting math/icm spot, because BB doubles+ more often than not and then Hero becomes the underdog and no icm modelling is going to give you the cost of BB doubling and Hero going to 1.5BB on subsequent hands.

however, Hero gets out of danger on a call+win here and AJ is a 2/1 fav against a 75% range. BB then icm folds on a prayer and is very likely busted on a near future hand when your AJ crushes a 75% range. so leaving it to BB to call and crossing your fingers isn't good. and if you range V as 25% imo it's a big mistake.

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05-10-2016 , 11:17 AM

Mr Rick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldsilver

I saw BB stack size and I know BTN range is super wide in this spot ~75%. AJ crushes.

because BTN range is ~75% and BB is by definition 50% it's a pretty interesting math/icm spot, because BB doubles+ more often than not and then Hero becomes the underdog and no icm modelling is going to give you the cost of BB doubling and Hero going to 1.5BB on subsequent hands.

however, Hero gets out of danger on a call+win here and AJ is a 2/1 fav against a 75% range. BB then icm folds on a prayer and is very likely busted on a near future hand when your AJ crushes a 75% range. so leaving it to BB to call and crossing your fingers isn't good. and if you range V as 25% imo it's a big mistake.

Why is BB 50% to call here?

They are automatically all-in on the next hand with less than a BB. Everybody could limp in and check it down which would yield an 80% chance of elimination. That is far more than HU vs 75% range with virtually any 2 cards. I'm not sure I would fold 72o in that spot...

edit: Or are you saying BB is 50% to win vs 75% range? Not sure it is really a 75% range though... I would remove low connectors and other lowish cards because BB is so likely to call. Even if BB is 50% to survive this hand we do better because we get to choose which of the next 3 hands to shove with... I would give us more than 16% equity in this spot.

Last edited by Mr Rick; 05-10-2016 at 11:23 AM.

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05-10-2016 , 02:46 PM

#10

onehandatatime

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 1,381

not too familiar with playing satellites, but it seems like an easy call.

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05-10-2016 , 07:03 PM

#11

scheier

grinder

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 527

Call = appr 40% to bust right now
Fold = appr 50% to qualify right now
So, making the hypothesis that if we call and win (60%) we can fold into the slot (which is not entirely true), this is about whether we give ourselves more than 10% chance of qualifying if we fold and BB wins the hand.
Given that I would put button on a tighter range than others here, this would put bb's odds of losing up to 55% maybe and you would only need 5% in the Bb winning scenario to make the fold a better play.
So, to sum up, I fold here

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05-10-2016 , 08:14 PM

#12

Mrspiky

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 352

Why are we saying Button range is super wide when button is shoving on 2 super shorts stack with BB almost sure to call?

I would fold button and leave it to the two shorties in the blinds to fight it out

Sent from my D5803 using 2+2 Forums

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05-11-2016 , 05:51 PM

#13

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Rick

Shirt I mean 100%

Was thinking about BB average hand strength that sits in the middle of all hands (q2s), but his range is 100%

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