It’s been a while since I posted a bluffcatcher hand.

$550+$200 addon 22 seats to ME
Post addon, soon after my QQ hand see other thread

500/1000
Raised UTG2 (40K) solid Asian 30s 2500
Hero HJ (55K) flats 88
SB (60k) young Asian 20s flats
BB flats

Flop Qd 9d 5h checked around
Turn Qh, UTG2 bets 5000
Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds
River 7d
SB leads out 18000
UTG2 folds
Hero?

SB is capable of bluffing (we played to end of previous night sat on same table and he can assess all ranges here) and this is such a good spot to bluff.

Are there any strong arguments either way to call or fold? Or is it so close it simply doesn’t matter?

Meh, it is so close. The obvious draw that missed is J-T; but the 7 is such a good bluff card for a SB that has played passively thus far in the hand. Betting 18K into 25K also smells more like bluff than value.

I'd tank for a bit and likely soul-read.

We can actually fold JJ/TT here before we fold 88 because we don't want to block JT, and 88 has really nice removal to villain 86s/T8s combos that will flat SB, check/call turn multiway and then lead river for value. And really other than Qx and diamond draws we elected not to lead flop or raise turn with, we really don't have that many better hands that take our line. I do think if our worst call is Qx we may not be calling enough, especially against a capable player.

It's probably one of our worst calls, but I think it's a call.

Lol

I wouldn't feel the need to be the hero here, you shared the burden with UTG2 and he wanted no parts so. I don't see what makes this a juicy bluff spot and it's likely an underbluffed line 3-way.

Young Asian 20s

yes, fair call

I think I meant to say young Asian male

One of the interesting things about this hand is that UTG2 range is weighted to exactly TT-JJ

Any reads on SB (and BB actually) that may help in constructing his range? Is BB aggressive or passive? Many of the Qs that SB could potentially have may have been folds pre depending on tendencies of the BB (ie. SB can limp almost anything here against a passive BB, but vs. an aggressive BB we can probably eliminate many of his Qx combos because they may have folded pre). Also we can make assumptions about some of his value combos that would have played better as a 3-bet pre (again based on his general tendencies in a spot like this). Also, do you have the 8d? If so, this blocks additional value combos.

It's a close spot so trying to cultivate as much additional relevant info as possible to perhaps more accurately fill SBs range here is helpful in tilting the scales in favor of call or fold.

^
BB is passive, 3!/squeeze very rare for whole table actually
Thought I’d included suits in OP sry, 8h 8d

lol those 2 pieces of information work in opposite directions, maintaining the stalemate. Probably add a few more Qx combos to SB range given the passiveness of BB...but then eliminate his value combos that contain the 8d.

This has run its course I think. Appreciate all the responses and it seems the call was reasonable.

I just re-read my reply and yeah, T8 doesn't make a straight. Still think we call here anyway tho.

seems like a close call?
his value hands:
A2dd-A6dd(5), A8dd(1), ATdd(1), AJdd(1), 77(3), KJdd(1), KTdd(1) = 13;
and you need to find ±5.5 bluffs:
JTs(h,s,c)(3), T8s(2) = 5
Him being an Asian is a huge argument to call, everyone knows that they bluff A LOT.

bad call

pornaments category

I haven't read the spoiler yet.

I don't really like the turn call with the two blinds behind. Draws will call, and we will often end up not knowing if the river has us beat. We hate A, K, J, T, 9, 8 even, Diamonds, and Hearts.

As played I would let it go. But only because there were three opponents to start the hand (I think it increases the likelihood of one of them having a Q or flush --- kind of like the "Lets Make a Deal" TV show where they always get rid of the door that has the booby prize to make it look like a 50-50 thing. But its really only 33%). And the bet is a solid value sized bet. I would be more tempted to call a larger bet.