How about vs LoJack?

What does UTG have to do with it?

What does GTO have to do with it? There is no GTO software for 6-handed tournament situations which takes into account stack sizes, ICM issues, and progressive bounties.

It is pretty common for big stacks to raise loose late in tournaments, and it is a common response to shove over their opens fairly light.

This. I don’t really play PKOs but have seen some workouts and the size of the bounty (yours and his and the BB) on the final table is going to have a significant effect on ranges.

^ seems right

Even if big stack is opening wide, and even if it’s a LJ range (6 handed), bid stack V is calling at a much higher freq due to bounty / KO. And T9s does not want V to be calling at a higher freq...

It depends on OPs bounty size. That he did not remember it or see it as important is a problem. Some people will go after bounties even if it is not correct though. Generally, light reshoves are not a good idea in PKOs.

A) utg rig ranges are tighter
B) it’s not about software. It’s about trying to play optimally. You can gain some ev with a shove potentially if you are trying to exploit a player who you think is opening too wide. However if the rfi player is playing an optimal range from utg (or LOJACK) in a short handed table a lot of the bad hands we want folds from are getting folded pre
if your read is wrong and maybe utg range is a lot tighter and doesn’t include these k5o hands that op mentioned then this hands ev as a shove starts not looking as good.
Also. There’s two less than 10bb stacks in the game. It doesn’t require and icm software to realize that you really don’t want to bust before them. So running kamikaze aipf exploit bluffs with hands that are an easy +ev vpip for a flat looks pretty much like a punt to me. Using the read that hey I think this guy is way too lose here as the reason to shove under these icm conditions. I don’t like it.
The thing about reads is that most of the time in mtt poker is you usually have a really small sample size so the reads you think you have suck and don’t mean ****.
I used to have 10-20k hand samples in my hud vs the regs in my zoom pool - point is me personally I don’t like trying to make big exploits like this in situations where I have a low confidence read.

C) I think your perception of what’s common in terms of vpip and shoving ranges is all fcckrd up.

But anyways you do you lol gl

It is pretty standard for a big stack to raise a lot late in tournaments, so a standard response is to reshove light. Ignoring that and only reshoving premium hands is a mistake.

Here we have the fact that he is a big stack late plus stats in the HUD. OP also essentially shoved a hand with decent show down equity against a calling range. This is not a big exploit. It is a standard resteal. Tournament play is totally different from Zoom cash games against regs. Big stacks will play extremely loose.

A lot of ridiculous stuff has been written here about how this is a spew etc. If it loses in $EV, the loss is slight. I agree that this being a PKO and the raise being UTG/lojack make it a closer situation. However, if the resteal gets through 2/3 of the time, it is very profitable.

If you think the Villain is opening too wide at this late stage, it is a better play to wait and try to nail him with a big hand than it is to try to blow him off with an ill-timed re-steal. Our goal is get to the final table and have a chance to win the tournament, not to win this specific hand.

If we follow your scenario, then sure, he will let you have the 2.2 bb's he has wagered 2/3 of the time. The other 1/3 of the time he is a big favorite to take all of your chips. No final table, no big cash, you are out.

Let us also not forget that a non-zero percent of the time, button will be trapping and will have a big hand primed to catch a squeeze play, and that in most cases the BB with only 5 bets left is going to call ATC -- very surprised that he folded his 5BB stack here.

There are good times to take big risks and good times to attack big stacks. In this spot you are in the SB with a workable stack, a couple of orbits from the final table, two stacks that cover you already in the pot, and a BB that should gii and make you show it down. This is not one of those times.

It is a weak play because it involves taking on unnecessary risk at the wrong stage of the game.

The money is generally is the top 5 places, not in making the final table. In a PKO, there is a lot of value to first place and to second place on Stars where the non-bounty payouts are the same for first and second.

The big stack knows there is ICM pressure, and that is why he is raising loose, even if he may be raising too loosely. UTG and BTN are also going to be concerned about losing half or almost all of their stacks, which is partly why the play is OK.

There are some problems with this play. One is that doing it from the SB, it looks a little like what it is, that you have a hand with marginal value to flat call with. You pick up 6.5xBB if everyone folds. You need to take it a little less than 60% of the time for the shove to be cEV+. With ICM issues and considering there is a little value to just flat calling, I estimate the shove has work about 65% of the time. I can't see how it doesn't go through more than that, so it is impossible that it loses much.

You mention waiting for a big hand to nail UTG. How often are you going to have a big hand the 2 times a rotation you act after this big stack? Are you getting that much action when you do, particularly if it is your first 3-bet at the table?

T9s is much better than T9o and various weaker hands in terms of allin preflop equity. A suited ace would be much better to do this with, having better equity allin, as well as having a blocker rather than reverse blockers.

The poster mentions GTO. Has there really been equilibrium analysis of reshoves against against a loose opening range late in tournaments?

BTN looks weak, flat calling in position with only 2 players behind to squeeze. That is probably partly why OP discounted the chance of BTN gii.

There is an issue with the 3! sizing. OP is getting about 2.4-1 getting in 28% of the money to call. It may be a borderline fold with ICM issues.

I think it is better to make is like 8xBB and fold to a 4! or make it 11xBB and gii or just shove.

I don't think we have a non-all-in sqz size at this depth in this spot unless you're purely exploiting with a nutted range... vs this villain everything should be an exploit, hence this bet vs this villain with this hand is just very marginal (Don't forget the 48 in his 48/35). And if you insist on balancing here than pick a hand that doesn't more or less unblock his calling range. Yes, I'm afraid this is a punt.

It may be non-standard, but you clearly are deep enough to 3!/fold or 3! induce with QQ+ or whatever. That might have been a better play. It is perfectly reasonable to 3! to 7-8xBB.

For all the people saying it is a punt, can you explain how you are getting action more than 1/3 of the time from the loose opener and the BTN caller?

Because its a PKO and people call off really wide for bounties.

You seem to expect utg to be opening 30% but only continuing with premiums. I would expect him to continue with top 10%, mediums pairs and most suited broadways.

And then there is the fact that we have 2 super short stacks that we need to outlast so it needs to be a significant +chipEV spot before we take it in the first place.

Yeh, you are right. It is a bad play in a PKO. It depends on bounty size, but people call too light, and this UTG is probably not a reg. Also, BTN is occasionally calling.

If it was not a PKO, this would be a reasonable play.

Guys what are you talking about, pko in the late stage of the mtts it's not that a big of difference from freezeouts.
I'll run it later but I guess it was bad =P

Do you mean a PKO or a fixed KO? The bounty is significant in the later stages, but people tend to overvalue it and undervalue the huge bounties for first place.

PKO the bounties are not that relevant anymore, the icm model that is well accept just transform the pko into chips, unless it's like a HUGE bounty it just allow you call a little bit wider. like 12-16 combos max depending on the situation ofc.

Why should the value of the bounties change late in the tournament? The expected payouts and expected bounties should be higher in about the same ratio. You can transform them into chips regardless of the stage of the tournament.

Are we assuming that some overly loose player is going to understand the value of bounties?

In a Progressive KO the bounties can be quite substantial in the latter stages. By retaining his own bounty and claiming that of the 2nd place runner, the winner will often claim a prize that is larger than the regular prize money.

In fact at any point during the final table the bounty you win or lose can be larger than the corresponding prize money.

Recently I was knocked out in the early stages of a final table in a PKO and my bounty (which he claimed) was about double the prize money I got for a fairly deep run. Not that I am complaining, as I had cashed in on those bounties in the first place.

The bounty is the later stages can be extremely important or not important at all depending on the size of the bounty. There can be a short stack with a huge bounty and a big stack with almost no bounty. OP apparently does not remember what his bounty was, and that is a crucial piece of information here.

I requested the hand history from stars as well as the payouts with and without the bounties and plugged every info into hrc.

It has the opener opening around 37% and if he calls it off with / iso jams 77+ AJs+ AQo+ KQs, we could 3b jam 66+ ATs+ AJo+ KTs+ QTs+ JTs and show a profit.
This happens without adjusting the ranges ofc.

I would assume that the opener's range looks a bit tighter, so vs say a 30% opening range and the BTN flat we could only profitably 3b jam 88+, AQo+

Ugh, I quit. Won’t be able to cover the whole front page, need to take my dog for a walk.

I wish this board was more active

I would prob have either called or else shoved. You have enough chips to put pressure on even the big stack with a shove. If you re-raise like you did, plenty of big stacks will see just the pot odds and not think about being committed to calling postflop

If I am 3-betting from SB with ~25 bb's and a caller, I am shoving.

But I'm not 3-bet shoving with T9s because we don't block JJ+/AK/AQ/AJ which are likely calling. And villain's overall stats are fairly meaningless if he is opening UTG (MP 6 handed).

Maybe its +EV but given this is a PKO regardless of our exact bounty we are likely increasing villain's calling range substantially so we would be flipping against 55-88 as well and we would get crushed by AT/A9.

There are two very short stacks at the table so we should have a decent chance of winning their bounties as well. Which is potential money lost if we get knocked out here.

With the bounty **** IDK but in a regular event I'm squeezing all-in 100% of the time albeit this is the stone bottom of my squeezing range

You people keep fixating on "UTG" as if he's actually UTG--he's lojack, they're 6-handed