Hi there,

I played this hand on a semi this weekend, my question is I know that as we approach FT the ICM until the 8th is increases a lot then drop after we reach the ft.

I was low on timebank had 7 seconds, I reach this spot against a very loose reg who was CL and at the moment his stats on the last 80 hands was 48/35. My thoughts were we'd have enough folds since GTO is 4b ATs and 77, but I feel was unnecessary as we had a very healthy stack, payouts here very modest only podium was the goal, first was 1.8k, second 900k, third was 600. What do you think let's go for it?

Follow the hand:
https://pokeit.co/public/824SDhN5e/r

GTO range used CHIPEV:
https://prnt.sc/15gq00f


PokerStars - 20000/40000 Ante 4000 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 53.27 BB
MP: 3.9 BB
CO: 40.18 BB
BTN: 39.4 BB
Hero (SB): 25.31 BB
BB: 5.58 BB

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has Ts 9s
UTG raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.2 BB, Hero raises to 10.4 BB, fold, UTG raises to 53.17 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 14.81 BB and is all-in

Flop : (54.22 BB, 2 players) Ks Tc 2h

Turn : (54.22 BB, 2 players) 4h

River : (54.22 BB, 2 players) 6d

Hero shows Ts 9s (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 41%, Flop 23%, Turn 11%)

UTG shows Ah Kc (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 59%, Flop 77%, Turn 89%)

UTG wins 54.22 BB

Did you make it 10xBB to look stronger? Did those GTO ranges consider stack sizes and ICM? What was your bounty? Did you notice that BB is very short and might call expecting good pot odds if UTG and CO fold?

I would never think of making this play, but it might be OK. It would be better if you had 12-20xBB so were risking less.

Maybe I am misunderstanding but I think that you have this backward. There isn't really ICM pressure until you reach the final table and the pay jumps become significant. Depending on the structure, the difference between 14th and 9th is going to be pretty small. Taking higher variance (but still +EV) spots to try to have a big stack at the FT is generally pretty good. (Unless your like me and lose almost every 70/30 on the FT bubble for a big stack, but I digress)


Thats said, I dont see how shoving T9s into a big stack UTG open is +EV at all, even a really loose one. Depending on how big your bounty is you are going to have low FE to none whatsoever.

Hey, thx for the reply.

The bounties were not that big of a deal now as at this stage they are chips, I can check it but I'd have something like 28bbs with bounties. Solver like to sqz with some hands since and shove some as well you check them on the gif I posted. The point is how to ponder if it's a good spot to take advantage of, chipev is good but by icm I don't know. FT buble usually is the second biggest ICM heavy spot.

I felt that he would be folding too much as this guys could be opening K5o at this situation. I feel ok with the shove but after thinking about it for a while I guess I could have choose a better spot since people were pretty snug atm.

Hey, there's ICM FT bubble usually it's the second biggest icm heavy situation, I'll let a pic of ICM simulation study I've, check it out, as we have less players ICM reduces since we realize most of the money that our chips have. About the spot by chipev it's a good spot to hop in because it's pretty easy to overfold ip and T9s is a nice combo because doesn't block the hands he'll fold like brods off BUT don't know maybe could have choose a better spot to resteal.

ICM graph:
https://prnt.sc/15jgq16

I think you just prolly want to peel at a high frequency here tbh pf

I would never think of doing it, but it might be a good play. You pick up 6.5xBB if you resteal. You probably do have to increase the value what you lose due to ICM issues. However, it should work enough against loose ranges. Remember CO can be trapping or flatting with 99/AQ or something and then decide it is good versus your range.

I would never think of calling out of the SB either, but that might be a little better than folding.

Why? You’re already in for a half a bb- you will rarely get squeezed in this spot vs utg
And it’s 2.2x
it’s a pure call from bb so I can’t imagine that .5 bb gonna make this hand want to fold.

I agree calling is better than folding, but you should defend with a much tighter range from the SB than the BB despite it only being .5xBB more.

Well. Yea. But 109s is a good hand

Thinking about it, I generally like OP's play. At this stage in the tournament, neither player is going to call off half or more of his stack lightly. I do not think ATs or 77 are gii. Maybe 99/AJs. Your expected loss in cEV when called is about equal to your gain if you resteal. You need to resteal more than half the time because of ICM issues. However, they just are not going to have hands to gii with enough, so you may resteal 3/4 or more of the time. The fact that it is a PKO makes me a little more hesitant to try it, because people will gii for the bounty even when the bounty is not that significant.

This type of play works really well live and used to work even better. Everyone wants to see a flop there, but does not want to call for their tournament life.

Of course flat call is a little better than fold.

Where are you coming up with these random frequencies like half the time?
You’re supposed to 3b vs utg in this spot w this hand basically never (maybe roll a very low % of 3bs)

Because UTG has a very loose range. They are not going to have hands to gii with but a small percentage of the time. It doesn't matter what GTO says. UTG isn't playing GTO.

Anyway, this is UTG 6-handed. GTO ranges deep are different from basically reshoving ranges.

Half the time, because your expected loss with when called is about equal to what you get when you resteal. Because of ICM issues, you need to resteal somewhat more than half the time.

Back in the old days we used to call a play like this, getting all in with a hand like 10-9, we used to call that a "spew." But of course that was before people knew how to play poker. Now it is called optimizing your preflop re-steal range or something.

Here's two quick tips if you want to win at poker tournaments and not just win at pio solver: Do not make pot-committing bluffs against big stacks with weak hands. Do not call big stack all-in with 10-9.

When you make it 10xBB, it is the same as a push. It is possible to 3!/fold to like 7xBB. It is a little nasty playing OOP against bigger stack(s) if you get flat called, but you do hit a lot of flops with this hand. Once you make it 10xBB, it is probably a call to the push. T9s is not the same as 10-9. As I explained, you should have high FE against loose ranges, so the play cannot be that bad. If it is bad, it cannot lose very much.

GTO 3! ranges are irrelevant to essentially shoving here. What matters in allin equity against a calling range and to a lesser extent blockers. T9s is in the range in terms of equity of other hands you might do this with which are not premium hands. It has reverse blockers. It blocks raise/fold hands fairly strongly. If it is a good resteal spot, based on the raiser's wide range, it is an OK hand to do it with.

10-9s is only 6%-7% better than 10-9 off. Hardly enough to make a difference here in this KO, only a few plyers from final table, and guys with 5 bb at the table. Why would want to go after the big stack here?

Using almost half of your stack (and more or less pot-committing yourself) to create fold equity is a weak play when the pot you are trying to buy is only about 7 bb before you bloat it with your overbet.

And this is a KO. Villain is guaranteed to be calling and raising you wide, he wants your bounty. You are almost begging him to take you chips by overbetting here. The overbet completely polarizes your range. Which means Villain will probably be calling. I for one would be willing to call very wide in this spot.
This is great advice if you are playing pio-solver. If you are playing tournament poker, not so much.

Risking your whole stack to win 7 bb is a bad move at any stage, let alone this close to the final table. Trying to bluff out the big stack is a poor move at this late stage. Why dig in your heels and get all in now? surely you can find a better spot than pot-committing against the biggest stack at the table with 10-9 suited.

See, when you get all-in, this thing happens. Suddenly you no longer have a range, you only have a hand. If that hand is 10-9, suited or not, you have probably made a bad decision, and in most cases only dumb luck will save you now.

I feel you but there's few missing points in your reply.
7bb is a huge amout of bbs vilan is likely opening 40% of his range now and if calls only with 11% it's a massive spot to go in. Another thing that's being KO we are aiming to win this MTT no reason to being tight now and avoid +cEV spots.

You mentioned PIOSOLVER but it's basic math

I don't understand why you are assuming BTN is never gii versus your 3!.

Actually you probably need a little less than 60% folds to make the play cEV+. I understand the point about it being a PKO, but I would still want more than cEV+ do compensate for ICM considerations.

I doubt UTG is gii as loose at 11% of his starting hands. There is no way you are getting action from either player anywhere near 40% of the time. This is pretty clearly a profitable play.

Yea not clear for me as well, but what bugs me is how can I understand this spot without guessing it too much, any ideia? I feel that ICM models are too tights.

Did we ever hear about how big hero's bounty is? If it is substantial, opener might be jamming close to his entire opening range.

What do you mean? Even if we have a huge bounty in this stage of the mtts the bounty has become chips, so he might be calling slighty wider in the worst scenario like 3-4%

I do not understand. In a fixed bounty tournament, the bounty would be almost totally insignificant at this point. In a PKO, the bounty is half the prize pool (although a lot of it goes to the first place finisher). If you have a big bounty, that makes it much more likely that you get called. It is also a problem for making this sort of play unless you have a really small bounty, as it makes it significantly more profitable for either opponent to gii and many players overvalue the bounty and go after it too much.

You guys are making this **** way more complicated of a spot than it is
Vs utg you’re supposed to play tight.
With the shorties in the game still you don’t wanna be getting it in without a good
Hand so shoving rangers are even tighter
I see this issue a lot in these forums where folks are like hey screw gto I play the player!
Problem is you start deviating so far from optimal play that you start torching $/ev
All in all I think this looks like a punt