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Sunday Storm: River decision Sunday Storm: River decision

07-16-2018 , 02:00 PM
Thoughts?

I realise it's a mediocre holding, but I'm generally not folding to a min raise unless I have ultimate rhubarb so happy to defend.

Flop - the bet is more of feeler, but obviously happy to take it down right there on a board that realistically, should be more advantageous to ourselves. That said, ranges should be wide, so it's very open. The flat indicates a float, so wary of over cards going forward.

Turn - Pretty awful, but the check really throws me. Absolutely no point in betting here, so I think the check back is standard.

River - I'm almost certain that villain doesn't lead with a 8 or a K here (or any other pair in between, unless he's a top player and sees an opportunity to go for some thin value), so that then gives me the decision of whether he has the A or not - I don't understand why he'd elect to check the A on the turn, and given the price, I think we have a pretty good bluff catching candidate.

    Poker Stars, $9.80 Buy-in (2,500/5,000 blinds, 500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37935063

    MP1: 86,086 (17.2 bb)
    MP2: 152,721 (30.5 bb)
    MP3: 305,168 (61 bb)
    CO: 119,748 (23.9 bb)
    BTN: 200,934 (40.2 bb)
    SB: 119,196 (23.8 bb)
    Hero (BB): 400,490 (80.1 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 4
    5 folds, SB raises to 10,000, Hero calls 5,000

    Flop: (23,500) 4 8 2 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets 7,755, SB calls 7,755

    Turn: (39,010) A (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks

    River: (39,010) K (2 players)
    SB bets 12,873, Hero calls 12,873




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    Sunday Storm: River decision Quote
    07-16-2018 , 02:56 PM
    I think he sizes his bluffs bigger on the river. I lean fold. He floated the flop and two primetime overcards landed. His only bluffs here should be suited gutshot draws. I don't think a call is terrible but I don't think I could manage to do it here.
    Sunday Storm: River decision Quote
    07-16-2018 , 08:49 PM
    Villain's range is vast -- all kinds of stuff half-fits his line so far, and nothing seems stone cold compelling. I wouldn't be shocked to see 55, 53s or even AA at the top of his range. But there's about a 30% chance that he's getting frisky with 76 or T9 or other stuff you beat.

    Floating your flop bet in a $9.80 tournament tells us much less than the same decision at higher stakes.

    On the river, the pot is offering you good enough odds to warrant a call, and your stack is substantial enough that saving 2BB hardly matters. Hope it worked out.
    Sunday Storm: River decision Quote
    07-17-2018 , 11:49 AM
    I don't know that I love the call pre. I think with villain's stack depth, he will be able to put you in difficult spots and probably set up a turn or river shove with good sizing. 45o will put you in a lot of spots like the one you found yourself in here, where you have a difficult decision with bottom-pair type hands.

    At no point during the hand do we really get information which solidly narrows villain's range at all. I can understand the flop check with both the strongest and weakest of his range. Sets are probably going to check here, as are overcards. There really aren't any conceivable draws...and you're blocking many of them with your 5.

    OTR I don't think he has many bluffs...and if I'm bluffing river I'm not giving you odds to look me up with a 4. It's probably a larger sizing.

    If villain floats with an A the check fits on the turn. He's not worried about protecting against draws, so most likely he is either a) hoping you'll barrel this card (because it's a good card for you to barrel) or b) you'll check back a bluff-catcher/showdown value hand and he can extract a small bet on the river.
    Sunday Storm: River decision Quote
    07-18-2018 , 10:15 AM
    1)really easy call pre
    2)really easy check back

    as played, i dont expect him having 76/T9 as they hands would more likely limp pre / cbet the flop so just fold it otr. an A ott nutworst turn for us
    Sunday Storm: River decision Quote
    07-19-2018 , 06:10 PM
    ya +1 nomalice.
    you can bet some middle pairs otf OP but ones with backdoor equity and low kickers are the most clear xb's of any combos unless you have really solid reads that Villain is very weak when he x flop.
    and yeah this line is on average gonna get significantly underbluffed, and he can go for value with any Kx+, so fold.
    Sunday Storm: River decision Quote
    07-20-2018 , 07:37 AM
    Preflop it depends a little bit on opponent. I rarely see regs mr bvb against other perceived regs. Recs can do this both with nutted hands to not discourage action aswell as not having a clear bvb strat, and just clicking like they would from any other position. If it's the latter I think you can even go for a 3bet here, though flat is certainly the standard play.

    I think protection betting flop is fine. I would size up a little bit. I think it's better to check back a hand like A4.

    River is a very easy fold. Both his sizing, line and the A and K should both hit his range really well.
    Sunday Storm: River decision Quote

          
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