Hello All,

I really wanted to become a millionaire this past weekend so I took a run at this bad boy.

Tournament was great, didn't really have to do anything too crazy, I just sat back and chipped up. I did win one big flip to stay alive a while back. Since then cruise control.

Villain in the hand is new to the table, it may have been his 2nd orbit. I hadn't opened since he had sat down.

Not really sure what to put him on, tough to put him on the wheel here because I don't think he calls with those kind of cards. Im really only losing to K10 here and I feel like he raises the turn.

I went into the tank here to figure it out, I didn't think at this point in the tournament anyone would be spazzing out and if i fold i still have ~220K.

Crazy spot in game, needless to say I used up all my time bank.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $200 Buy-in (4,000/8,000 blinds, 1,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37933673

CO: 361,904 (45.2 bb)
BTN: 252,358 (31.5 bb)
SB: 206,680 (25.8 bb)
BB: 307,338 (38.4 bb)
UTG+1: 192,077 (24 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 345,239 (43.2 bb)
MP1: 148,886 (18.6 bb)
MP2: 632,981 (79.1 bb)
MP3: 93,067 (11.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A A
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to 16,999, 6 folds, BB calls 8,999

Flop: (46,998) 4 A J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 13,999, BB calls 13,999

Turn: (74,996) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 52,999, BB calls 52,999

River: (180,994) 2 (2 players)
BB bets 222,341 and is all-in, Hero

Seems like a straightforward call? What am I missing? We lose to 53s and KTs, if he rolls that over thats just life.

I'd put 44 and JJ in the center of his range. Maybe Ax pairs, especially AJ and AQ.

We're ahead more often than not here.

As played, it's a call. Realistically we lose to one combo of 53s and one combo of KTs. Villain can quite easily be turning a busted FD into a bluff. Could conceivably play 44 and JJ this way too.

Looks like a bad beat thread instead of an actual strategy hand. We flopped top set with a SPR ratio of 6, no flushes came in, only 2 somewhat strange straights. If we aren't calling here, the villain can bluff us way too easily.

I'm actually going to go against most people here.

I don't think villian is calling turn with 3/5 unless it is hearts. So that's 1 combo.

If villian has KT, he is always c/cc flop and turn if he has Kh as a blocker. He is sometimes shoving with his other KT combos and sometimes c/c.

By double barrelling, you are making your hand pretty face up. You likely aren't betting a flush draw as you at a tight range, AA/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ/AJ, sometimes KK on double barrel.

Villian likely doesn't have two pair with A/J or A/4 combos b/c he would have c/r flop.

Should we include some sets of jacks/fours? His stack preflop is in a weird spot, too much to shove and too little to 3bet fold. He could certainly have them...If he did, I'd say most people are c/r flop; and sometimes waiting for turn to brick to check shove. Since neither happened, I'd rule out all sets, including queens (he 3bets pre 100%).

Villian may have A with the Kh, which would be the perfect hand for him to simply call you down with, not donk shove river. He has the blocker, why would he want to push you off your bluff, bc he is only getting called by better. He may have also 3bet pre willing to get it in. Id say that's out.

He may have KQh/K9h/K4h, but that's only 3 combos. KQh is probably c/r flop bc he has the combo draw to the nuts. But some people may slow play it, and KQh calling turn makes complete sense because he has showdown value now, but is that hand really donk shoving river when everything misses? Heck no.

So how many combos is this guy calling flop and turn with? KT (4) + 3h5h (1) + KhXh (3). Ill even add 2 sets of jj/44 that took a terrible line. That's 10 combos. I'm ruling out any suited connectors as I just don't see them floating flop and calling turn with no equity other than a medium strength flush.

All the pair combos with Kh have showdown value. Makes no sense him shoving river.

Literally the only hand I see him having on river doing this is one of the KT combos. I don't see how a slowpayed set gets here, why not just check, raise all in on river when the heart misses? (but it still makes no sense why a set wouldn't c/r earlier) You'd just blow off all AK, AT hands and you lose to bigger sets on this river donk all in.

In the end. If I had no info on this guy, I'm probably folding. If I had some info, but no river info like this, I'd consider calling just to see how he plays this situation out for the future. And I'm folding to tight players who seem to have nuts every time they showdown.

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Villain might decide to turn TT or KK into a bluff, since he blocks the nuts. He could easily have any of the sets. Against that, I only see 2 combos of KT that really make sense. Is he supposed to call the flop with KT, no flush draw? I doubt it. He might even play KThh as a check raise. 53hh? I guess that could be there too. Come on, this is the most straightforward call without the nuts you can have. I guess JJ or QQ would be better calls, since they don't block some of the obvious 2 pair combos villain can have, which AA does block. But, still. Call, and if they have it, tough $hit.

I would have sized slightly bigger on the flop. This is a somewhat wet board that hits your range better than his. Are you going smaller because your hand is so good?

Really disagree with folding. We're essentially only calling with a straight in that case, and that means we're just folding way too often.

I think there are some sets here (JJ,44), some random 2 pairs that villain can take this line with for value, and since we beat some of his value range we probably have to call, regardless of any bluffs he might have. Hearts missed, and if he has something like Jxss, I think he could try to turn his hand into a bluff. Not to mention if we're giving him credit for floating the flop with the KT gutshot he can also have KQ, QT and 25 which we're ahead of.

I think calling with the exclusive 4 combos of KTs that we're opening here is simply too tight.

I've seen good players spaz out at final tables. I'm certain I've seen myself do it on a couple occasions as well.

This is a tough spot, so my thoughts:

1. I dislike the flop sizing as no matter how this played out, I think this is the one clear mistake in the hand. This is a board V can call with a reasonable number of hands, we have a monster, and should be angling stacks in. I would bet 22k here to set-up a bigger turn bet, say 70k. This makes it harder for V to call you down with random hands and makes the river easier to play as well.

2. His range here could easily include any KT given the flop sizing. Frankly, with the raise sizes pre and on the flop, I can give him a very wide range here just on odds calls. With that stack size, i'm going to call ~1.75bb into ~6bb, especially if I have Kh, knowing i'm probably going to get your stack if I connect. I discount 53 unless it's specifically 53hh because that's wide given your bet sizing on the turn. Even 53hh is a bit adventurous, but with no stats, hard to be sure.

3. As played, I probably call here unless there is significant ICM implications. If we're folding this, we are completely exploitable and never building a big stack. I can easily give him a few hands like 44 and QJ that I think he could get to the river with and have played like this. While I think they are all played badly, the reality is you just cannot fold this unless you are sure he has it from experience, or giving up huge pay jumps by losing. Assuming we are just ITM and there are a lot of small pay jumps, we have to take the chance on building the big stack.

Is this a joke? This is the easiest call ever.

1) He has bluffs.

2) You're ahead of some of his value range. 44, maybe JJ, AJ, A2, QJ, J4 etc

3) The realistic hand that beats you is 53hh which is just 1 combo. KT should be looking to check/raise river or maybe check/raise turn given flush draws.

I would not waste my timebank on this and snap this so fast.

Whoa. And they say online poker is dead. I appreciate the effort you put into this analysis, but you’re making far too many bold assumptions here, many of which are just totally incorrect. Against a random opponent especially, this is a simple call, all day every day.

I can see your passion for the game tho in your response which is good. But if you’re leveling yourself into folding in spots like this you’re making huge mistakes. As the poster before me explained, when deciding to call, if the bettors value betting range has hands in it you can beat, you need to be calling the vast majority of the time.

A. Because you’re ahead of a portion of his value betting range
B. Bluffs

There are always bluffs in a players range. Maybe in very rare circumstances it’s only 1-2% but it’s far more than that in almost all spots. Try to get a better understanding of this concept and you’ll become a better player.

^ this
Flop sizing is close to optimal. Turn looks good
River we snap and win most of the time lose sometimes

Curious about something, I don't play stakes this high.

If you are villain in this hand with 53s/KT, would you open shove the river here? Or would you check to Hero to let him bet his entire range, which looks pretty value-ish given the action? If you're Hero and villain checks the river, do you value bet?

1. Being a Millionaire is overrated.

2. What kinda bleeped-up/scared-money logic is this? You're acting like you have a bluffcatcher. Not gonna take the time to list all the worse hands that vill/BB could have for value (you can just ref one of the walls of text put up itt.)

3. Weird line from Vill and weird spot but always a call.

You might to 'balance' your bluffs. Most people play the nuts in a more tricky/ try to get value way. There are plenty of hands original hero is checking back that are bluff catchers he might call with.

BBV

This is probably never a fold and in the sunday million never times a million

nice slowroll..

I think BB could have a lot of random two pair hands in his range defending from the big blind, if he likes to see of flops then you beating half the deck, if he's tight you still have to call because you still beat a nice chunk of his range, 44,QJ,AJ, two missed flush draws. Only 1 hand beats you.

+1

This

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