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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-19-2019, 06:25 AM   #1
TheEducatedGuesser
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Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Not a lot of info about opponent, just 52 hands, 42/17/0,0.

Betting the flop definitely an option, but decided to check this time. On the turn I am still ahead KQ, KTs and some spade draws. I think I like my river lead trying to get value from worse two pairs. Folded pretty quickly to shove.

What do you think of this line? Burning money? Genious? No sense at all? How would you proceed?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $100 Buy-in (60/120 blinds, 12 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 6,333 (52.8 bb)
BB: 15,581 (129.8 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): 8,039 (67 bb)
UTG+2: 14,819 (123.5 bb)
MP1: 10,650 (88.8 bb)
MP2: 16,932 (141.1 bb)
MP3: 5,925 (49.4 bb)
CO: 10,000 (83.3 bb)
BTN: 8,782 (73.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K A
Hero raises to 300, 5 folds, BTN calls 300, 2 folds

Flop: (888) 9 K J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 480, Hero calls 480

Turn: (1,848) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 960, Hero calls 960

River: (3,768) A (2 players)
Hero bets 1,884, BTN raises to 7,030 and is all-in, Hero folds
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Old 03-19-2019, 06:35 AM   #2
BiggAli
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Seems fine. I like the line x/c flop and turn.

River I'm not sure to fold though vs a player who has 42/17 even on just 52 hands. I'd tend to check him up on sharkscope, fold vs a good reg and call vs fish. Recreational players tend to that stuff with any two pair (KJ, AJ, J9,.... that seem to all be in his range).
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Old 03-19-2019, 09:47 AM   #3
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

C-c river.
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Old 03-19-2019, 10:23 AM   #4
JoeC2012
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

It's really tough for a reasonable player to run 42/17 over 52 hands at a 9 handed table-- this is the key to the hand. For this reason I'm not folding river once I've bet. Like BiggAli said we coukd see 2 pair often here.

What is our rationale for betting though? I think I prefer a c/c, it sucks when villain checks behind KQ but I doubt they can prevent themselves from betting 2 pair so we get a bet from that anyway, and probably induce some total monkey bluffs.
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Old 03-19-2019, 03:41 PM   #5
2pairsof2s
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Not convinced that a c-bet isn't better than c/c on the flop.

since you decided to c/c the flop and turn, c/c has to be a better play than b/f on the river, probably about the same price too...
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Old 03-19-2019, 08:09 PM   #6
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

having a leading range otr seems pretty bad. that’s especially true when we want to b/f the top of it. probably x/cing all three streets, could consider x/jam if villain sizes absurdly small i guess.
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Old 03-19-2019, 08:26 PM   #7
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

cc river and i like the line
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Old 03-19-2019, 08:30 PM   #8
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Would listen to case for donking river but you didn't really offer one. Wanting to be called by worse is not enough.

You never have air when you lead river. That's one problem.
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Old 03-20-2019, 01:39 AM   #9
TheEducatedGuesser
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Quote:
Originally Posted by bearer View Post
Would listen to case for donking river but you didn't really offer one. Wanting to be called by worse is not enough.

You never have air when you lead river. That's one problem.
Figuring out bluffs which want to be donking 50% on the river is a problem for sure. 9T of spades is the only bluff I can find here, but on the value side of things leading puts his KQ´s, KT´s and also AQ´s and AT´s which he started bluffing on the flop in a tough spot.

Quote:
having a leading range otr seems pretty bad. that’s especially true when we want to b/f the top of it. probably x/cing all three streets, could consider x/jam if villain sizes absurdly small i guess.
This seems like safe and standard line. Btw, what would you do if Villain overbets the river after our check?
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Old 03-20-2019, 05:04 AM   #10
BiggAli
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

I don't really mind the lead river. Villain can check back too many hands that will call a bet. With the A coming OTR. Our range is mostly made of two pairs with the A and hands that cannot call another bet. In that case villain would do well to check back most of his range (all his Kx, and his two pairs (J9, KJ, K9) and we'd miss a lot of value by checking to him). I guess the best line vs a solid player on this river would be to b/f.

Now vs this particular villain who has 42/17, I'm not sure the fold river is best once we bet as his range should still have two pairs when shoving river (along with straights and sets). And for that particular reason, I agree that in this case, c/c seems to be better vs this particular villain.
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Old 03-20-2019, 08:19 AM   #11
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

If I cb AT and AQ I would cb this too mostly, this type of player usually doesn't fold any Q or T on this texture esp being so deep so starting with a bet makes sense when it is also good for our range overall. Something like a b/b/x line seems ok.

As played I would check river to keep all his bluffs in and see what he does before making up my mind (sizing etc). Sets and an unblocked QT is still in his range and we block all worse 2ps except J9 so proly just x/c and raise sometimes.

Agree with not having a river lead range is proly good. If hes decent then he should know that this type of line is routinely underbluffed

Last edited by wowsooooted; 03-20-2019 at 08:47 AM.
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Old 03-21-2019, 06:03 AM   #12
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Line is fine besides the river lead. Not sure what you are willing to accomplish by opting for a lead otr. As said itt, i d cc otr.
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Old 03-23-2019, 06:13 AM   #13
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Quote:
Originally Posted by bearer View Post
Would listen to case for donking river but you didn't really offer one. Wanting to be called by worse is not enough.

You never have air when you lead river. That's one problem.
I've led many rivers with air. Something like T8ss, flopped open ended, turned flush draw so c/c my chips away then lead the scare card. Not saying thats a good line but I've definitely had situations where its made sense, plus we oftentimes will have value there and want to lead if player has propensity to check back. Mr. 42/17 is never checking back though. If hes somehow a good player or smart he will take into account his image and know that we know hed bet when checked to, so if we had the nuts why would we lead, let him bet then x/r.

I guess he could have barreled QT and got there, but I think you likely got bet off a chop, or possibly a he had a lower aces up and legit thought he was good. I think x/f is really the way to go here with this strong of a hand. Not sure about the flop and turn x/c tho
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Old 03-23-2019, 06:45 AM   #14
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Fair enough, T8ss is an option I'd overlooked.
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Old 03-23-2019, 10:48 PM   #15
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

QT was already a flopped straight, river is irrelevant

In a nutshell your thinking is that V KQ KTs etc will check back river and you lose value. But any single pair Kx or Jx generally folds to your river lead anyway, so you actually achieve little

imo once you start a cc line for value...stick to it. The only question should ever be whether to cf cc or cr river, but all options start with check.
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Old 03-26-2019, 12:19 AM   #16
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Is anyone concerned of not denying equity on the flop by not betting? Or considering the wetness of the board, is checking line here on the flop are we intending to c/c all the way to the river if we don't see 3 spades or a 4 cards to the straight?
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Old 03-26-2019, 04:13 AM   #17
TheEducatedGuesser
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

I ran PIO sim on this hand, my Utg range 15% vs Btn flatter 26%. This is just theory trying to find the "baseline" and of course people are not playing like solvers.

Parametres:

My range: https://i.imgur.com/Mrz2oeR.png

Btn range (might be too tight): https://i.imgur.com/CMvD8do.png

Betting options: https://i.imgur.com/HmkWK0s.png

Sim wants to check whole range on the flop, and never x-raise:



Btn should be polarizing their range on the turn with big bets but against this sizing, AK just continues x-calling.

River leading frequency for my range:



with AK:



River leading bluffs are 98 spades, T9s combos, small amount of TJs.

Against Btn´s shove AK folds around 60% of the time after leading.

So, by leading the river we are attacking against btn´s check back range which consists of AQ, AT, KT, K9, J9.

If btn overbluffs and/or valuetowns themselves by betting something like AQ,AT on the river, x-call becomes the superior play vs donking. Assuming Btn doesn´t overbet the river with QT like he should, we get same value without having to bet-fold our hand.
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Old 03-29-2019, 10:53 PM   #18
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

^^Good stuff

Surprised how frequently we're donking river.

I'd actually run this spot too but I think I either got lazy and/or forgot to post. We're donking river polarized, including the nuts, right?

Guess high river donk freq makes perfect sense when we consider how stong both players' ranges are (they have to be super strong on this texture I'd imagjne. Can you open up the range exploree and tell us what each players median (50th percentile) hand is OTR?)
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Old 03-30-2019, 10:18 AM   #19
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

very interesting discussion, would someone care to go through logic of flop check
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Old 03-30-2019, 07:38 PM   #20
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Quote:
Originally Posted by wowsooooted View Post
very interesting discussion, would someone care to go through logic of flop check
I see it as:

Multi street value from worse
Pot control v tricky texture
Remove V leverage if they have strong equity mix eg KQ JT and force them to play for absolute value only
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Old 03-31-2019, 05:43 AM   #21
TheEducatedGuesser
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
^^Good stuff

Surprised how frequently we're donking river.

I'd actually run this spot too but I think I either got lazy and/or forgot to post. We're donking river polarized, including the nuts, right?

Guess high river donk freq makes perfect sense when we consider how stong both players' ranges are (they have to be super strong on this texture I'd imagjne. Can you open up the range exploree and tell us what each players median (50th percentile) hand is OTR?)
It seems to be very card dependant: A, A and A are the only cards with some tens that are donking this river:



50th percentile hand for OOP river is pair of kings and for IP it is pair of aces. I had to choose IP to bet bigger on the turn to get more reliable result.

Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver View Post
I see it as:

Multi street value from worse
Pot control v tricky texture
Remove V leverage if they have strong equity mix eg KQ JT and force them to play for absolute value only
Putting Btn to flat QTo gives villain 4x the straights than we do have on the flop (4 vs 16). I think this is one of the most important reasons to check our whole range OTF. We have very few hands that are willing to go three streets for value. Btn also has way more two pair hands than we do.

This changes a lot if Btn is flatting with a tighter range, say 18% without QTo:



Villain´s stats were 42/17/0 but hand sample is only 52 hands. It takes some guessing work to figure if his range is more like 26% or 18%.
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Old 04-01-2019, 08:30 PM   #22
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Re: Sunday Million, linecheck AKo utg vs btn

lmao why are we using pio to solve a hand vs a complete fish. as if we need to randomize etc. atleast node lock for what a fish would prob do or with whatever reads we have (we have none). i would probably check call river. might check jam if hes super **** since he can have worse two pairs. but a fish can have QTo which is quite a bit of combos compared to worse two pairs since theyre all heavily blocked.
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