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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 12-07-2018, 01:53 PM   #26
jl121
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Re: Suited connector in pre final table phase of tournament

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Originally Posted by JoeC2012 View Post
I'm worried you might be seeing monsters under the bed with some of these examples, for example QJT. That's an amazing flop for us. For every time we get stacked by AK or K9s, we will have far more instances of getting it in way ahead vs his 1 pair/2 pair/sets.



I would probably defend 76s and fold 65s.

Max sizing I'd defend against is interesting. The weird part is that if he makes it too big, it's kind of a spazzy and weird play, and that will take me out of theoretical mode and make me start thinking how to play exploitatively against villain. I think anything above like 12 BBs is weird and I'll just give up. Something like 11 BBs probably puts 98s at the bottom of my calling range but it's still a call.

FWIW villains raise size is totally standard for good players in 2018 yeah? You have to make it at least that big to have any decent fold equity. Someone earlier said something like "if it's 6 or 6.5 BBs we can call", well yeah, if someone makes it 6.5 BBs OOP over my 2.5 BB open, I'll peel one with two cocktail napkins, unless I have a read that they're a nit or splitting sizing.

Nah, no MUBS it's one consideration amongst the entire universe of considerations.

But consider this: w/ 16 unblocked {AK} combos out there, it's not a stretch to say we're going to get coolered occasionally. Approximately how often? How many combos would he get to showdown with on a [TJQ] texture? Overpairs+sets+two pair (the suited combos) are 27 combos, add in 16 combos of {AK} we're talking about hero having the idiot end ~40% of the time stacks actually go in. It happens less frequently w/ flushes but still a not an impossibility (just guessing but it's prob about 10-15% of the time we make a flush and stacks go in we're overflushed), it happens SIGNIFICANTLY MORE frequently when we have naked pairs and it's a simple fact that naked pairs are by far the most likely made hands we are to acquire postflop. So again, I submit: we have significant RIO problems here , especially when it matters most--when the pot is at its biggest.

If that's the case on one of our best textures, how is that not an important consideration? Conditional on stacks going on, you're in much worse shape than you seem to realize. And when you go to the flop w/ SPR of 1.7 you better believe a huge chunk of your EV needs to come from those pots where stacks are going in, by virtue of the fact that V's stack will, indeed, frequently be going in since it's so easy for him to go cbet-jam w/ all his overpairs and nutted hands. That's the RIO argument against flatting.

(BTW referring to the [TJQ] scenario specifically, on top of all this, if stacks are going in prior to the river on [TJQ] then we actually discount our equity further bc most hands in V's stack off range can boat up or counterfeit us or draw to broadway so almost none of his hands are drawing truly dead but even some of hero's nutted hands [like our idiot-end straights] will occasionally be drawing dead.)


Of course there's still a huge universe of outcomes that don't result in stacks in going in, but mostly that happens when we completely whiff (and most of the time we WILL whiff) and lose immediately bc we have to fold to a cbet. So most of times when stacks don't go in it's by default: we will not flop well enough to continue unless we plan on floating a ton w/ 9-high. I guess you can cobble together a floating strategy, it won't be as effective compared to when stacks are deeper but maybe you can make it work, just think it'll be hard at these stacks depths. Some V's will even get sticky w/ A-high That's the equity realization argument against flatting--V can much more easily deny our equity than we can deny his.

Your suggestion of flatting up to 12bb seems way too loose-passive.


TBH I'm disappointed you didn't actually engage the substance of what I wrote and just dismissed it as MUBS, and you didn't even address what I wrote about equity realization. Still waiting to here how you propose we realize all our equity when we're at a range disadvantage w/ an SPR of 1.7 that sets up perfectly for stacks to go all in by the turn before we even have a full opportunity to bink a hand.

I guess V's sizing is standard. Don't see why that label has any influence on our decision, all that'd mean is we rarely see a 3bet sizing we can continue against pre and that's just fine. We can play this hand as basically a pure open/fold pre against "standard" sizings and we should have plenty of better hands in our opening range to where there's no need to defend this one. In terms of raw hand strength I'd guess {98s} is somewhere at or below the median hand in hero's opening range.

Last edited by jl121; 12-07-2018 at 02:03 PM.
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Old 12-07-2018, 05:25 PM   #27
PhatPots
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Re: Suited connector in pre final table phase of tournament

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Originally Posted by Mr Rick View Post
I think the problem isn't the size of the 3-bet but the size of the 3-bet in proportion to the effective stack size.

Villain's 3.5x 3-bet is fairly standard given he is in the SB and with an effective stack size of >75 BB's its an auto call for me. However given the remaining 32 BB effective stack size after the pre-flop call I just don't like it. There's not a lot of room to maneuver post flop. And this flop is a case in point as to why we need more chips. With larger implied odds the flop is an easy call especially considering we have position and can float and see what villain does on a neutral turn.
I agree with this. Your stack is just not deep enough to hit your implied odds.

On the turn you will have to fold if the villain bets again. If the stacks were deeper you might pick up additional outs of the turn and end up getting the right price to make your hand.
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Old Yesterday, 08:11 PM   #28
oldsilver
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Re: Suited connector in pre final table phase of tournament

fold

or...4bet 16BB, then lead 11BB into V and jam any turn that remotely works for you, but V has only 41BB so you're pretty much screwed unless your image is KK+ with such a line

r/c at around 6.5BB seems ok as a speculative play
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