https://checkdecide.com/hand/869ee10...a9690044861b88

This hand may also seem ridic, but i haven't heard any strong argument for the jam yet.
Key factor is: villain is a decent reg with low oop cbet and low flop giveup.
Based on these ^^ i figured he is much more likely to check KQ, QJ, QT OTF than to cbet them on this texture. Also i think my IP raise looks quite scary vs UTG, so i think if he happened to cbet KQ (or other Qx), he folds those on the turn unless he picked up flushdraw.
He can obviously have some KJdd/JTdd-type hands, but those don't matter when we think about valuebetting the river.
So although river looked like a dreamcard for the first sight, i don't think it really is.
Also he was quite nitty, so not sure he opens 44 pre UTG.
I'll win a lot when checked down, but if i bet i'll get action from an AA/AQ/44(50%)/(KdQd(50%)-looking range + very few additional Qx/Ax he may got out of line somewhere.

Didn’t look at hh but pio will tell you to bet 100% frequency with this combo and ev of
Betting is higher than checking you can node lock some strats for oop and I still can’t imagine a scenario where checking ev outperforms bet

Anyone else who didn't look at the hand but knows the answer?

I think you've gotta give people a chance to make a mistake. You'd be surprised how many people convince themselves to call turn with Qx, or to call river with AK/AJ.

You're just beat by so little that you have to get value out of your hand IMO.

You mean you didn't click on a random link on the internets? C'mon bro you gotta live a little...

(I didn't click on it either nor did I open new tab/copy/paste...too much trouble) and as usual, I'm with lolposting

I'd definetely jam river vs unknown/bad. But against someone decent/bit too tight, with low oop cbet and low giveup stats I think it's a surprisingly clear check.
But whatever, i don't want to convince anyone, just had the silly idea maybe i'd hear some real arguments.

For those on the GTO side: what are the best combos here to bluff? Kss, KJhh, KJcc? Do you actually make those moves?

A)It’s not a gto discussion it’s an ev discussion the ev of bet is higher than check when you have a fh and is checked to otr it’s as simple as that. Sometimes you lose to a better hand but that’s poker
B)if you think your feeble human mind is going to do better than the solver by all means keep on fighting the good fight
C) yes you should find bluffs otr
D) your sample size for these kind of exploits is probably so small it means close to nothing

I don't want to confuse anyone, but all the nice comments made me check this hand in PIO and:

WITHOUT ANY NODE LOCKING

If UTG opens less than 15%

99 IS RATHER CHECK ON THIS RIVER for IP with spr 1!
(vs 14% it's a clear check)

If we add any basic logic or read on the polulation, e.g.
PIO-OOP ch-jamming AA, QQ 100% OTT - which rarely happens in practice
population folds more OTF and OTT
-> it looks like a no-brainer check.

(UTG needs to open very loose 16-17% for us to start jamming river with 99)

OP this hand history hosting site sucks, can you just post the HHs henceforth?

I'm not gonna pretend like my comments are worth anything, but I'm also telling you that I'm not commenting on this hand unless the HH is posted here, and I imagine others are thinking the same thing.

Hi, thanks for the note, but why do you say it sucks? I like the graphics much more than for the others and it has some cool features, like i can check distribution of decisions:

bc we have to click, scroll, and click through the hand. It's just annoying tbh

Checking distribution of decisions is gonna be misleading because if you're like me, the first time you saw this site and tried to click through the hand you just clicked the wrong actions to make it move forward.

It's very annoying.

Why not try posting a hand instead of a link to some sketchy website that my internet security software says is a possible source of intrusion programs? Are you posting a snide comment in hopes of getting some of us to click on your lick and pick up a virus? Do you get a commission on every computer that follows your link and gets infected? Just curious.

btw never clicking. GTFO with your sketchy link. And unreg pre. Your word salad strategy posts make it clear you are clueless, like you read some fancy words and you figure if you use enough of them we won't realize that you don't know what they mean. It's amazing how many dolts think that spouting jargon makes them look smart.

Well, I posted a really-really interesting hand, where apparently EVERYONE (including myself) was wrong about GTO + noone cared about the tendencies of population.
I tried to break down my thoughts as detailed as possible, then I got answers like "I didn't see the hand but it's a clear jam".
Then I got curious and made the PIO, shared the surprising result (no, it's everything but a clear jam) and now i'm told to get the **** out of here? Easy boys! This is not winners' attitude!

In case you are curious about my results, here is my last 6 and a half year:


PartyPoker: profikiller73, Luigi_Caffe
Winamax: NitkellembM, FU 15
PokerStars: Luigi da BP
PokerStars.es: ps.es player2
PokerStars.fr: No2bisMbasom
888: NoUPUP
ACR: IWUP


Nothing spectacular, but i have some steady reads of the midstakes mtt population, some of them i wanted to discuss here as a trade off for getting some feedback on my new-born replayer.

If you don't want to open a checkdecide-link, so be it, your decision, which i understand and accept. It's my (Valdemar Kwaysser, aka Luigi) project, I started developig it because i got fed up with the stone-age tools we use for sharing hand histories, wanted to create sg more creative, more fun! It's brand new platform, far from perfect, I appreciate any ideas how to make it better. I thought it'd be mutually benefitial to share some interesting hands and thoughts while getting real feedback on the project.
We are going to simplify it to fit your needs. Thanks for those dozens who actually tried and messaged me nice words and we are thrilled to hear any needs and ideas how to develop it!
As the upcoming months are going to be really challenging, i'm thinking about starting a blog here on my journey as half grinder/half project manager, if you are interested, let me know!

While I admire your spirit of innovation and respect that you possess the wherewithal to create a Replayer, you have been at the very least inappropriate and at worst downright deceptive by promoting your product here (in a strategy forum.)

Find a different venue to market your product imo…

Enough of the prevarication...please stop trying to redirect people to your website by posting a lol river spot. This (forum) isn't a Marketplace (where you can 'swap' ur reads in exchange for our feedback on your replayer/site.)

If the hand you posted is indeed interesting, post it in the proper (converted) format then at some point during the discussion, you could possibly mention your Replayer. The fact that it took you 6 posts to come clean RE: your true motive (to promote your product and drive traffic to your website) does not speak well to your character. You could have just been honest and upfront from the outset, made the offer and let the chips fall where they may.

If you’re on a tight budget then I can almost understand you trying to get free (and very valuable feedback) here but the standard would be to select a “focus group” of online poker players, show them the Replayer and compensate them for their time and feedback. The fact that you would even consider your ‘Population Reads’ to be a commodity of any worth is at best a stretch, so how could a ‘trade’ for a non-commodity, comprised of data that is unverifiable come across as anything other than a hoodwink move?

Ran a sim for this spot as well and based on the same assumptions (without nodelock) and 99 is a pure bet.

FWIW enjoyed the site. I’ve been somewhat removed from poker for past couple of years, so I don’t know what tools are available/standard, but I really liked playing through the hand, and then seeing your actions. Seeing the decision distribution is also very cool! You said this your project? Well done.

As for the hand, my solver-free response: It is really hard to think of hand other than AQ that a reasonable player would call flop, that turn sizing, and river jam. That being said, I still chose jam to get value from the not so reasonable segment of the MTT pop.

Against my better judgement I clicked the link and looked at the HH.

I use PIO every single day for hours a day but you can make a solver say whatever you want--garbage in, garbage out.

OP really should post screenshots of the tree. I'm guessing he chose silly sizings such that checking is coming our higher EV than betting at equilibrium, though that seems dubious.

The SPR OTF in this hand is 15 which means a really huge tree unless there's some simplification aka potential garbage.

Also, OP flatted pre IP then 3x'ed a ~40% cbet OTF which was [4Q9]r (OP has 99). Doubt we have much of a raising range here, if any raising range at all. Have not confirmed this myself.

He then potted an Ad turn, allowing JJ, TT to easily fold (though in this node pot may very well be the equilibrium sizing).

So if OP is seeing 99 be a pure check OTR after this action, I think it's likely/possibly because he's in a suboptimal node to begin with. He may have already folded out most if not all the worse that'll call (AK, AJ, and AT and also KK, JJ and/or TT in particular I suppose being the most likely candidates).

Assuming an optimal path is taken to the river, I cannot imagine a boat not being a pure jam.

I was gonna break down and run this spot, but I like really big trees and mine was over 100gigs and I'm not gonna waste my time like that.

I mean I don’t know if we even need pio to say that you bet a full house on the river when checked 2

^^100% agree, which is why I'm still kind of curious to see what OP is seeing. It really does defy logic, doesn't it (Assuming OP isn't just talking out of his ass, I mean he did just mislead the entire forum for clicks to his website)?

Yup
And the replayer sucks balls

Let's sum it up:
My sin is, that when posting a hand, i used my self-developed free replayer. I didn't stated this in my post. (However my name is publicly available there and on this forum as well, so it was never a secret)

I didn't spam any, i do have a running discussion on this hand with my friends and my students, and seemingly PIO is very sensitive to all the input details, can easily be a clear check vs a nitty opponent.
You can disagree with the check, but honestly all the hatred and arrogance i faced here from the very first moment was quite shocking.
But, thanks for those who actually shared thoughts on the hand!
I'm back to grind and development!
Peace & love!

No, your sin is that you posted in this forum under false pretenses.

Your OP is nothing more than a lie intended solely to direct traffic to your website under the pretense of discussing poker strategy.

You say you didn't spam, but this entire thread is spam, and you insult us by trying to manipulate us into giving you free feedback instead of acting like a man and asking us for our time and attention.

You accuse us of arrogance, yet your entire basis for posting this thread and trying to trick us into giving you free input is arrogant in the extreme.

Mods, please lock and ban, for the reasons stated above.

mods can probably confirm this is a real incoming direct message for me :

Correction:

[X] Got caught.
[X] Apologized and was contrite.
[X] Is qualified to teach pokerz/have students.
[X] Missed an opportunity to self-promote, or make reference to his real name.
[X] Has displayed (many) traits of a Sociopath (see below.)

Profile of the Sociopath
-Glibness and Superficial Charm.
-Manipulative and Conning. They never recognize the rights of others and see their self-serving behaviors as permissible...
-Grandiose Sense of Self...
-Lack of Remorse, Shame or Guilt...
[X] Etc...