6 players left on the FT. Hero is 2/6. Hero and chip leader are leading by a large margin over others. (Basically 2nd position is very likely for the hero).
Position: UTG. Hand: Ace pockets.
Hero min raises, one of the smaller stack shoves and the chip leader in Big Blind position shoves after tanking.
Should the hero call?
PS - the pay jumps are significant. Payout at 2nd position is 4x the payout at 5th.

It’d be helpful to know the exact payouts and stack sizes, but even without that info I can answer that no, this isn’t a situation where I’d fold AA preflop.

Off the top of my head the only situation I can think of where I’d fold AA preflop would be in a satellite where I’m locking up a seat/win and there’s no benefit for trying to accumulate more chips. This isn’t like that scenario at all.

I don't think I would fold here. Especially if we take over the chip lead if we win (we should win 80% of the time if BB has KK/QQ.) We win a lot more if BB has AK (like 92%).

Nope still not folding this.

No, not close.

QQ is fold, AA isn’t

similar situation with a buddy with 9 left on big $ FT. He 4! shoved correctly AKs as 2CL into CL who called with QQ (and binked Q turn after Axx flop). CL had almost identical stack and when we ran numbers QQ was clear fold.

But AA is a call even if QQ isn’t

Thanks guys! I agree it shouldn’t be a fold. I called and sucked out against KQs. Hard luck.

Hell no, this is a dream spot. If you lose then you accept 5th place and so be it. Somebody mentioned the satty situation and that's true. Also an interesting spot is like if you're the leader against 4 identical stacks and 1 micro stack, it might benefit you to keep the micro stack in the game by folding AA for like 3 BB so that you can leverage ICM against the larger stacks in the following orbits. Rare tactic but who knows

Never fold aces preflop in a cash tournament. There may be some situations to fold kings, but usually really deep, not late in tournaments based on ICM considerations.

I am not sure what a 'cash tournament' is. However, there are times it is clearly right to fold it; you are on the bubble of a very large field tournament and have <5BB, but are still a lock to make the money. Doubling your stack from 4BB to 9-11BB is not worth the risk.

Winning barely changes your equity, losing costs you 2 buy ins.

Cash tournament versus satellite. If you really look at your equity in the prize pool, it would be hard for having an 80% chance of going from 4 to 11 BBs to be worth less than a 20% chance of losing a 2 buyin mincash. Are 28xBB really worth less than 2 buyins?

Deuceblocker as an extreme example I think if you have 5bb and you can know for certain if you fold you make the mincash and if you go all in you’re at risk, it is not worth it to go all in. Even with around 80% the difference between $0 and a mincash is much more significant than between 5bb/12bb. With either of those stacks your chance of laddering up any meaningful amount is very small. Imagine this scenario in a 50k. Would you take the mincash? I know these are all extreme examples. In donkaments if mincash doesn’t mean that much, I can’t imagine shoving is hugely wrong. But with QQ I could see it being a clear mistake.

You are gaining 7xBB in your example more than 83% of the time. So you win 5/6 of the time. It is like 5 * 7 BB = 35xBB. The mincash is not going to be worth 35 - 5 = 30xBB. Therefore, folding in that example would be a big mistake. With QQ, you are about 67% to win, so yes calling with QQ could be a big mistake.

If it is a 50K, and you are putting up your own money and you are not properly bankrolled for it, you could make mistakes playing too tight on the bubble.

Let's look at how this works in ME of the WSOP. A huge field, so you know with 5BB you are going to cash (there is exactly one player left, you are on the button). Your stack is 30K, at the 6KBB. The average stack is about 400K, or 67BB.

Action folds to the cutoff, who raises to 3BB, so we know he is calling your 5BB shove. Assume the blinds fold.

If you fold this hand you cash 100% of the time. Your equity is 15K, plus the value of your chips.

Your chips are worth about another $3565. If you win the hand, your chips are worth about $8900.

You are risking 18565 to win 5225. You need to be good about 78% of the time. The above assumes each chip in play is worth the same; obviously we know this is not true. However, after the bubble bursts in a huge field, the pay jumps are tiny in comparison to the prize pool , so it is not far off.

So, with 5BB and AA, we have a very marginal call. We have a clear fold with KK.

At 3BB the math works out to 81.4%. The lower we go, the more complicated it gets since the blinds might come along.

I guess you could make hero BB in these scenarios to avoid those complications, but it does give one an idea of how to play the bubble in a huge field; when you have a short stack with little hope of more than a min cash, you need exactly AA to play this spot. KK isn't good enough.

Yeh, in a large tournament like the WSOP ME there are situations on the bubble where it would be correct to fold QQ, sometimes KK, and maybe AA. This only applies to large tournaments in which you can be pretty sure of folding into the money.

You say that you need 78% to call with 5xBB in your scenario, which make AA a marginal call and KK an easy fold. Against a 20% range, AA is 85% and KK 75%. There are other variables, such as it could be a 3-way pot, and someone could cause a player in the pot to fold preflop or postflop. You are going to need to fold a little more before the bubble if you do not double up, but you are going to need to play tight either way, so that is not a big factor.

IMO, it is fine to fold a big hand preflop on the bubble if it is a close call in terms of $EV for psychological and bankroll management reasons. However, you do not want to make significantly $EV- folds playing for the mincash.

Not folding AA but it's really really close, and I am folding KK

By the way, the numbers for the main are unusual, the idea that the average stack is ~67BB really only applies to the main. That is what makes doubling up not nearly as valuable as a standard tournament.

OP: If you are still here, can you post the stack sizes and payouts? We can do some math to figure out both your exact problem, and the general case of what range you can call, etc.

FWIW, in most spots, the short stacks survive more often that your intuition might suggest.