$450 "Live Sized" Tournament at Maryland Live. Day Two. 10 away from the money.

Blinds 10K/15K.

Villain: ~1.2M
Hero: 787K

Reads on villain: Played against him extensively on day one. Solid TAG MAWG. Never did anything out of line. I have TAG image.

Villain raises to 40K from EP. Folds to me in HJ. I look down at KcKs and 3 bet to 120K. Villain flats.

Board 862ddx. He checks. I c-bet 120K. He instantly goes all in.

Hero?

What did he do with his flush draws in previous hands you observed?

Call, you lose to ~6 combos of hands.

Maybe fewer. Would 2-2 always call pf?

Definitely a call now as pairs >9 are also in V's range.

Yes, villain is super polar here and probably only beats us with 88, 66 and occasionally 22 or trapped AA.

But does villain always take this line 99-QQ? It's possible QQ 4-bets. It's possible 99-TT elect to flat on the flop. I think we find enough combos of worse overpairs plus the occasional flush draw bluff to make this call, but it's not a slam dunk or anything.

Also think you are deep enough that some of the sets will often check-raise smaller rather than jam the flop.

Villain can be playing mixed strat with overpairs or a nearly-pure x/c strat but even if he jams overpairs 20% of the time that's 4.8 combos of hands in his range which we have 90% equity against.

I think it's generous to give him 2 combos of 22, and I think it's generous to give him 2 combos of AA, so if he has all 88 and 66 then overall his range has 10 combos of hands that we have 10% equity against.

We unblock all KdXd combos (which are actually FD+two over combos) and of course mostly all broadway AdXd are out there, and likely lots of non-broadway AdXd too. Him jamming Ad2d wouldn't surprise me. And neither would any of his AdXd for that matter.

You can estimate whatever you want for each part of villain's range but I don't think we're ever doing worse than 40% equity, and that's an EXTREMELY conservative estimate of his jamming range: 99-88,66,AdAh,AdAs,2h2s,2s2c,AdKd,AdQd (we only need 34% to breakeven). That's an EV of 100k chips risking 550k, worst-case scenario.

If villain jams QQ-88,66,AdAh,AdAs,2h2s,2s2c,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad2d we have 64% equity

I think V's instajam is a tell, if I had to make a live read I'd assume the flop improved his hand as opposed to having an overpair but that could just as easily be a tell of strength (flopping a set) or a tell of weakness (he has a huge semibluff like AdKd or AdQd and is eager to get it in) and it's not like it's totally dispositive of an overpair. So even with the possible live read I think his range still has enough stuff we beat to balance out the stuff that's crushing us to make this an easy call.

Yeah, I think we almost always have to call when we have an overpair without a diamond, and likely even KK/QQ with a diamond. I think the more interesting hands in our range are the 99-JJ overpairs w/diamond and AdAx where we block all of our villain's most likely bluffs, although maybe those hands can sometimes be worked into a flop check range.

+1.

Though I guess in this situation a solid TAG could have AA in his range but not much 66 or 88 as he doesn't have the odds or the implied odds to call theses hands OOP setmined.

What's the question? Whether to snap or tank call? A lot of lol liveplyrs like the tank call in order to 'save face' for the few times that they are actually beat.

Gotta try to come off as a "thinking plyr" imo...and what better way to do this than tank (in an obvious spot?)

#LargeGameTreeEtc

Doubt this is obvious v a good MAWG TAG who have tendency to flat draws and go hard with 2pr+

As per my first question, the only sensible option here is to think hard about how V has played draws in the past and base your decision around that. It’s not a snap.