Quote:
Originally Posted by jpgiro
Yes, villain is super polar here and probably only beats us with 88, 66 and occasionally 22 or trapped AA.
But does villain always take this line 99-QQ? It's possible QQ 4-bets. It's possible 99-TT elect to flat on the flop. I think we find enough combos of worse overpairs plus the occasional flush draw bluff to make this call, but it's not a slam dunk or anything.
Villain can be playing mixed strat with overpairs or a nearly-pure x/c strat but even if he jams overpairs 20% of the time that's 4.8 combos of hands in his range which we have 90% equity against.
I think it's generous to give him 2 combos of 22, and I think it's generous to give him 2 combos of AA, so if he has all 88 and 66 then overall his range has 10 combos of hands that we have 10% equity against.
We unblock all KdXd combos (which are actually FD+two over combos) and of course mostly all broadway AdXd are out there, and likely lots of non-broadway AdXd too. Him jamming Ad2d wouldn't surprise me. And neither would any of his AdXd for that matter.
You can estimate whatever you want for each part of villain's range but I don't think we're ever doing worse than 40% equity, and that's an EXTREMELY conservative estimate of his jamming range: 99-88,66,AdAh,AdAs,2h2s,2s2c,AdKd,AdQd (we only need 34% to breakeven). That's an EV of 100k chips risking 550k, worst-case scenario.
If villain jams QQ-88,66,AdAh,AdAs,2h2s,2s2c,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad2d we have 64% equity
I think V's instajam is a tell, if I had to make a live read I'd assume the flop improved his hand as opposed to having an overpair but that could just as easily be a tell of strength (flopping a set) or a tell of weakness (he has a huge semibluff like AdKd or AdQd and is eager to get it in) and it's not like it's totally dispositive of an overpair. So even with the possible live read I think his range still has enough stuff we beat to balance out the stuff that's crushing us to make this an easy call.
Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 02-19-2019 at 02:30 PM.