Hi folks!

Posting here for the first time as I found myself in an interesting spot yesterday in a 150k guaranteed tourney and would love to hear your thoughts.

40 people left out of 829, ITM was 88. I think I have a solid image at the table. Last hands I showed were a short stack going all-in with A7, I reshoved with 88, but the A7 ended up taking the slot. After that, I raised from the button with 55, small blind went all-in, I called. AQ vs 55 - AQ took it. After that, I was left short stacked with 10-15 blinds for 2 levels. I doubled against Villain shoving JQ from Cutoff, he called with KQ, took the hand with double pair. Villain is a regular that doesn't seem to have gotten out of line too much, quite good at extracting value from his hands, has been quite active.

Blinds: 15k - 25k (BB Ante 25k)
Hero: 600k stack (24BB)
Villain: +/- 900k stack (36BB)
Hero looks at cards - Jc10c

Folds to Villain in MP, who raises pre-flop to 50. Hero in SB calls, BB calls.

Flop (175k pot)
Qd - 9d - 9h (open-ended straight draw for me, flush draw on the board)

Hero checks, BB checks, Villain raises to 60k. Hero calls, BB folds

Turn (295k pot) - 3c

Hero checks, Villain checks.

River (295k pot) - 2c

Hero bets 125k.

How do you see this line? I doubt if I should re-raise from SB with Jc10c, but I finally had a +20 BB stack after 2 or 3 levels, and I thought it was the right hand to see a flop with. Also was unwilling to play a bloated re-raised pot from SB, and Villain had been calling a lot of three-bets... also a good hand to play three-way. BB had not been three-betting much, was not too worried about him squeezing. I also obviously doubt about the river bet & size.

Thoughts about the river bet, size, pre-flop, or even flop / turn?

I've already learned a lot from reading you people, interested in participating myself .

As played, i like the river bluff, sizing may be a little small.

Problem is that I have no idea what you are repping by only betting the river. Its hard to put you on a q,9,3,2 or 33,22. I would expect 77,88,99 to bet turn and maybe even flop. So i then think ak,aj bu with no reraise with ak preflop, i discount this hand as well.

So if V, i think I call with all pps, ak,aj, and, maybe a8-a10 with a read.

pls define "MP"...this is an easy reshove vs a Reg in the HJ or LJ imo...as played easy c/r otf...

otr i guess ur sizing is ok to rep Qx but how many Q's do you really have here?

AQ+KQ should reship 100% and you shouldn't be flatting offsoot combos. QT is pretty thin for value and probably plays > as a bluff catcher, so you're only repping 3 combos of QJs for value with this sizing.

not a fan of any street...

Yep me neither, that's why something itched me to post it

MP was HJ, 7-handed at that moment.

I did consider c/r the flop, decided against it and to c/r instead on many turn cards... but when he checked I decided to try to rep a value bet with 9-10, Q-10, QJ.. But I fully agree that if I put myself in Villain's shoes I would even consider calling with A high with that line... too many possible bluffs.

Villain insta-called and showed KQ.

@erc007, you think this is an reasy reshove preflop, with 24BB? Honest question.

Hey hey...

I didn't mean to be harsh, so thx for being receptive to feedback (trust me...I've done and seen much worse.)

A couple things that are important/relevant before we select our action:

Stacks and reads (if any) for CO; BTN and BB. We def need to know if any of them has a reshove stack and if they have shown any aggro tendencies (b/c this is a good resteal spot for CO and BTN and a good squeeze spot for BB.)

I ran this is HRC Calculator just to get GTO ranges and actions, giving us the option to flat or reship. The cEV is pretty close (which was expected) but there are a few things to consider when we flat.

Although it's +0.67 cEV (in BBs) to flat, we will significantly under-realize our equity since the BB can squeeze and we will be OOP postflop. So it's difficult to calculate your actual cEV given that you have to discount it (due to factors lited above.)

Here is the optimal HJ Min-Opening Range:


Regs tend to be much wider here in general.

And here is the reship Range for SB:


So we're making ~1bb cEV to reship vs. 0.67bbs to flat (less discount.) I'll run a Pio Sim for post...

Using this as your flatting range:

44-66,ATs,KJs,KTs,QJs,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s

Ran a Sim just to see what it did w JT...in reality this can't be close to valid with BB still in the hand but was curious. If anything, I would expect BB's range to make us less inclined to c/r, given he can have a decent amount of 9x and FDs.

I gave the option for a bigger bruff sizing otr (70%.) I also gave the options to c/r to 3x (which would leave ~70% pot behind) or 6x/shove.



Looks like you played it ok post (I stand corrected), although it does prefer the bigger river sizing. Not sure why it prefers KJ:KT and some AT as c/r bruffs, but it does.

BTW...I lied in my OP...I was a huge fan of the Turn

Are you kidding me? feedback is why I posted the hand! Thanks a ton erc007. Super appreciated and insightful to see the simulation and your thought process. I think I finally need to buy PIO already.. it's been a decision delayed for too long now.

I think my strongest read in that spot was that me (and everybody) agreed, BB was the weakest player at the table. He had a nearly non-existent squeeze range, so I was even happy to keep him in the hand with that holding as he usually played with his cards face up during post-flop.

Again, thanks a lot. Thanks for the opinion on the turn btw. I did tank for 8 minutes before checking there, but very proud of that decision

+ there's also another doubt I have to extend the conversation...

There's two impacts to the equity of the hand right, and how it will realize it's equity post-flop (in this particular case):
a) because it's suited and connected, the hand should realize more than it's raw equity;
b) however by playing OOP, you should realize less equity

(for the sake of this question, really assuming BB doesn't squeeze)

My guess is that the second factor - position - has a higher impact in realizing equity, but by which scale? is there any way to attempt to calculate this? any good material about this?

Wow...good questions...I thought that I saw someone calculate EqR (may have been User or someone else that's super smart) but I couldn't find any type of calculator or formula when I did I quick search.

Pio will calculate your EqR postflop but I have no clue what the value represents (maybe Eggs might know?)

For your hand, I dont really think that we need to worry too much about realizing our equity post with such a short stack. While it's def true that position in large part dictates whether or how much equity we can realize, it (position) is far less a factor as stacks get shorter.

my default here on raising pre and finding a paired board is to 1/3 bet the pot on the flop then see what happens - and that's especially true when I have robust equity on 8 outs (K,8) and non-robust equity on 6 more (J,T).

if there was a club on the flop and another club came ott, then i'd be jamming the turn ~PSB and if someone calls then que sera pls gods let the draws hit.

but here there's no club otf. so 1/3 pot flop, then decide turn. at least you can't get into too much trouble.

Yep, but I'm the SB/caller and not the pre-flop raiser