I thought about the merits of checking back the flop. Since my opp is aggro, I will face a cr some of the time putting me in a bad spot. However, vs a wide bb range, I think i have a lot of fold equity. In addition, I block many of the hands he would cr or float with such as the nfd, fd + pr and pr+ sd thus increasing my fold equity. In that spot with my equity and blockers and the nature of his range I felt a cbet had a good chance of success.

I would be interested to see what a 'solver' says here. I have not done any work with them, so I don't really have a feeling of what it would say.

Someone over on another forum looked it over and said my hand is 100% cbet on the flop and my particular hand is a flop jam.

GTO it seems ok. I still am unsure if ICM really plays a role here, but tourney life and survival always has value.

I promise having a big stack at the final two tables has more value.

So do you feel the shove was worth it?

I honestly was not thinking about ICM or pay jumps at all with 18 left. I was just thinking chip ev and building my stack and having a shot at the million.

Yes we’ve become known for it. Most Aussie punters grow up playing Australian Rules football. The ball is different and we mostly drop punt the ball to create a very accurate backward spinning kick that all professionals kick up to 60 yards.

However there’s a less used kick style called a torpedo, where you hold the ball diagonally and kick slightly across it. That creates the same spinning style your NFL punters use. It’s rare to see these days, but just occasionally someone will roost a huge torpedo out of the back line, or have a kick for goal from 60+ yards after the siren.

Albert Thurgood played around 1900 but is still remembered for being the longest kick ever. He once punted a measured 107 yard place kick in training - a record that may never be broken. There was reported drop kick of 115 yards in a seconds match by another champion player called Fred Fanning but it was unverified and possibly apocryphal.

The longest kick in recent times was a player called Dustin Fletcher who would be 40yo now but could kick 80 yards from full back. He would have done well in NFL but AFL champions get looked after very well here

I think it depends on stack sizes/standings at this point. If you're in third and this dudes in first then yeah its a punt, but if you're in 8th-10th then I think going for it here is very worth it.

There were about 6 or 7 smaller stacks than me. They were between 20 and 30bbs or so. I had 38bb. I was right around that 8-10th spot.

There was a strange distribution of chips at the final two tables. OPs table had the 9 biggest stacks.

Just coming back to this. So after some analysis, looks like your play was pretty bad
Otf Half pot or 1/3 looks good so that was ok, but the ev diff of bet v x here is close and we do a lot of mixing. Vs an aggro i don’t mind just x
So vs the x/r it’s really starting to look like a punt. Pio has this as a pure call. Your only raises are rly qqq/jjjj. And some flop nf. Some other flushes do a good amount of slow play as does bottom set
What’s interesting is that you are probably getting x/raised much less @ equilibrium than you thought, with pio playing 54% fold /36% call and only about 8% raise.
And you are basically only getting x/raised by flushes and naked axh
So when you block his only bluff combo you are basically just punting when you jam vs a range of only flushes.
Oop is playing a pure x/c strategy with hands as strong as qj here. His only non flush value x/r is 44 since he never has qqq/jjj
Even if he is going wider here and xr a hand like q4/j4 your response of jamming vs this x/r is looking pretty bad since he’s basically never folding.

I think that just convinced me to buy PIO

@lolp, Are you using basic or pro?
And how long did it take you to analyse this spot?

Thanks for the analyses. Does this take into account effective stack sizes of 388bb preflop? Someone else did a pio and found the play to be ok. Here is their analyses...

"IP should bet this combo roughly 100% of the time, mostly for 1/2 sizing with this SPR. The best response GTO wise is to shove (shove is better than calling for 0.7bb but Ah5x for example is better to call than shove) given that we realize 100% of our equity.
AhTX is never truly behind, against different assumptions from OOP get it in range we have from 40-55% which is pretty reasonable given the pot is already large and also given that OOP is laggy he should have a reasonable folding region as well. If there is ICM concerns on the spot, then it should be played more cautiously but for me seems a no brainer shove against this player type."

If we call the cr on the flop I think it will be difficult to realize any equity and we fold most turns and it really hurts our chip stack and our ability to open pots and survive. It really handcuffs us.

Given this is a tourney and chip positions, I cannot see calling the flop cr. From a tourney standpoint, this has to be a jam or fold.

Yes I ran it for 38 bb stacks
I have the mid level pio that costs like 300$
And I think you overestimate your equity vs his range again his x/r range (which is like flopped flushes and bottom set).
Folding is 0 ev. Calling is decently higher ev than jamming. Based on the assumptions in my model. Very wide bb defend range and pretty tight solid co range.
Also because it’s a Mtt id guess calling does even better bc you can’t just reload

Thanks for the feedback. Lots to think about. I knew how laggy he was and while he was thinking about what to do i made up my mind to jam on him if he cr given my observations of him the previous day. I acted rashly.

I had to run really well to get to the final 18. Feels like I blew a great opportunity that may never come around again.

I agree with check flop, esp vs spaz

I am not sure I understand this. Is PIO saying Villain has no bluffs? I agree we are in poor shape against his value; But hero thought that Villain was laggy. Surely there are some bluffs in his range. Yes, we block the NFD, but is that the only bluff he has?

Pio is showing the gto strategy for this spot and how it plays out @ equilibrium
Says ah x is his main bluffing combos.
And I think op mistook solid mtt player who defends his bb properly for out of line aggro button clicker and tried to over adjust/exploit what he thought was 2 wide a x/r range without really understanding how this spot worked ( I didn’t rly know until yesterday either fwiw)

Cool, so we get to bet as a bluff, but since we block all of villain's c/r bluffs, we have to give up.

I am sure OP thought Villain had a higher C/R frequency than just the Ah/x. Whether he did or not is entering the exploitative realm, and leaving GTO behind.

Pretty much this. I made an exploititive adjustment and it backfired. I spoke with the person who busted me and he said he feels his cr range in that spot is tighter than what i thought it was.

I didn't think he was spazzy. He was a good, thinking aggressive player. Everyone that was left was good. But yeah, i over adjusted. I did include single high hearts in his range especially if he had a low end gutter to go with it. I beat those hands, but instead of calling or folding i decided to push my equity and end the hand. It blew up in my face. Thank you for the pio analyses.

This stuff actually makes a ton of sense. I'm excited for the WSOP to end so I can grind some PIO and actually be good at the game.

I'm confused. Does everyone know that hero has the A of hearts?

I think this line is easily the best way to play it. You could check back the flop, but I think having hands like this in your bet/3bet range will balance your range better.

His range appears to be too value heavy given i have the Ah.