0.5bb/1bb/0.128bb ante

60 left in an online $320, 50 paid ($680 mincash)

UTG: 29bb
UTG1: 10.5bb
UTG2: 25bb
LJ: 29bb
HJ (HERO): 24bb
CO: 53bb
BTN: 32bb
SB: 43bb
BB: 10bb

Hero holds ATs

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2bb, CO raises to 5bb, fold, fold ,fold, Hero raises to 24bb

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Obviously flatting is the other option here, creating a pot of ~13.3bb with Hero having 19bb behind. I reasoned that villain, with a big stack and 10 away from the money, would be 3b wide here, and that I was likely ahead of his 3b pre range--as such, I figured jamming would outperform flatting, where I have to allow myself to be blown off my equity somewhat frequently.

I fear that oftentimes I ascribe to big stack villains in these spots *my* ranges, and *my* IP 3b frequencies though. In practice, I almost certainly am far more aggressive on the bubble in spots like these than the population...so I'm not sure. I'm just thinking that were I in villain's shoes, ATs is just miles ahead of my (laughably wide) IP 3b range here.

In game before shoving I determined my 4b AI range to be something like {55+, KQo, A9s/ATo+, KQo+}...basically I felt in these positions, in this spot in the tournament, villain is full of **** semi regularly. No reads on him, sadly (new table).

I honestly rarely flat here off of this stack depth...near the bubble...I just think OOP has **** maneuverability postflop all things considered...

What are your thoughts?

Worth noting: obviously villain is committed vs. the BB. With that said...don't think this matters a whole lot--BB is going to be GII here super duper infrequently with his obvious lack of fold equity and proximity to the bubble--when he does, villain just has a shrug call and that's that

Flat is not the only other play, with those stacks 10 from the money fold is a pretty decent option and probaby what ICM dictates especially with 0 read for all we know his 3-bet range might be TT+/AQ+... The fact that some people are 3-betting light this spot doesn't really justify busting just before ITM for nebulous reasons with a hand that's completly crushed when called by any legitimate 3-bet hand.

Isn't flatting a 3bet OOP with 24BB and ATs 10 off the bubble here just bad in general?

I honestly like shipping more than flatting, but folding seems to be the best option at this stack depth. He can be light, but this close to a bubble of that size with our stack size we're sort of handcuffed.

Fold > Jam > Call imo.

Hey, thanks for the reply

He 3b range *might* be very tight/only value, and it *might* be very wide/have bluffs/merged...can never know which, and in the moment I decided to take the risk.

I want to ask, what would be your ranges for:
1. opening here
2. 4b GII after villain's 3b?

Yeah, I think flatting is pretty iffy and like that option the least.

The field was...500? runners. I play this tournament weekly, and the bubble really does last forever from this point down to the mincash--it can take *forever* for people to bust as everyone sub 25bb religiously tries to mincash. I say this partially to elucidate that 10 away from a mincash in this tourney can very well be a 30-50 minute affair, and I get really uncomfortable at the idea of resigning myself to never chipping up during this period. 1 or 2 away from the mincash, yeah, I'm pretty rock solid.

Multiple times, I've found myself with a big stack at this point of the tournament and have taken advantage of this, vacuuming up chips multiple times per orbit. Beyond anything I should be allowed to get away with, beyond any amount of time I should be allowed to get away with it. Not that I'm saying this to justify my action here--just providing context.

Since you pre-determined your 4-bet shove range, and your hand is within that range, I'm not sure what your issue is. Are you asking if your play was too laggy for the situation? Or is it sour grapes because he called with Aces.

My feeling is that the play is pretty loose and I don't tend to 4-bet jam that light with over 20 bb's in my stack. Whether you think he may be 3-betting wide is beside the point, since you have no reads and are basically saying "In his spot I would be 3-betting wide, therefore so is he," when for all you know he might be the biggest nit ever.

Your own experience with lengthy bubbles and the nitty play surrounding them should advise you that as often as not an unknown Villain will be 3-betting a much stronger range than what you posted.

The problem with 4-betting all in here with a hand like yours is that it is right on that nexus where virtually nothing weaker than what you hold will call you, and almost nothing that is superior will fold.

The hand is too reliant on fold equity for jamming to be a positive play against an unknown Villain. When he calls, you are lucky to be flipping, usually you will be dominated.

Flatting and playing A/10 oop is also a poor option. Fold to the 3-bet, little harm done.

Well, my issue is that my 4b/AI range is probably bad vs. the unknown 3bettor

To be clear, I don't think this play was good in hindsight, I just wanted other minds to expound upon it so I could think more deeply about it.

Does anyone wish to provide their thoughts on what their 4b/GII range is here? Or, harder, the 3b range for an unknown villain in a $320 in this spot?

Edit: And, also, what hands if any do we flat to his 3b? I'm thinking, contrary to what was running through my head in the initial post, that flatting is worse than folding (as I mentioned in one of my subsequent replies). We need 24% equity without ICM, so with ICM we obviously effectively need more.

1. With 24 bb's you can feel unrestrained and open fairly wide; I'm a nit so I am sure my range would be much smaller than many here, but I wouldn't feel I couldn't open whatever hands I wanted in mid to late position. I do tend to tighten my range a lot in early position when I get short, but from CO go ahead and open it...

2. Big Aces, pocket pairs. Few to no 4-bet bluffs this close to the bubble. Fold K/Q, Q/10, 10/J. Fold all the connectors, fold A/X - A/J.

itd be nice if you gave his hud stats for the hand but i probably would prefer to flat here. its not like he made it 6.5-7bbs and you are putting in close to 1/3rd of your stack in. if hes 3bet folding a bunch, probably better to jam but i think i prefer to flat here. folding is definitely not an option vs this size. not sure why people think flatting here is bad.. you have ATs hj vs co... come on. you should be defending way wider than this lmfao.

I don't consider myself as a loose player, and my 3-bet range with the villian stack near the bubble (this situation induce me to 3bet lighter) would be 88+,AJs+,AQo+,KQ...

After your shove and without any reads on you, I will call with JJ+ and AK..

This is actually pretty close to what I got when I ran this in HER. Output and ranges are below:



I didn't give the option to flat the 3bet...OOP/shallow etc but I did initially run it with flatting as an option.



In general I don't really like 4betting in these exact spots (laying alomst 2 to 1- I got 1.86 to 1) but I do 4bet resteals >>> the pop. I also open pretty tight with 20-25bbs and I mix - mostly open shoving the marginal hands.

As you see, CO has to be pretty wide here for ATs to be marginally profitable as a 4bet shove.

I will be a voice for the other side and say that I like the play. I'd like it more if it was BTN, because we cripple BTN if we double through, so they may make an overtight fold.

I agree that lots of villains will 3b wide, and I think we underestimate our fold equity when villain decides "oh noes he has it" when we jam. I can definitely see someone having AJ or KQ or 77 and deciding to 3b a late position opener, but then definitely folding to the jam.

Your OP pretty much mirrors my thought process in these bubble spots and my 4! range is kinda similar pending gameflow. Bubble is bubble no matter who is at table and randoms will tend to 3!f at high freq. it’s also a green light to continue to abuse bubble after this hand as they just give up

Wouldn’t be too concerned about the shorty behind. In my mind the shorties are more likely to play tight ranges and squeak in to the money and if they call and you fold then V is likely getting the correct odds anyway.

Keep abusing bubbles.

Without reads proly fine to overfold this close to bubble.

We have no info here so I don't think we can just assume he is always light and abusing the bubble

Id be really suprised to see KQ,AJ,77 3b/f here as they only need like 35 - 40% equity to call